Ubaldo Jiminez 3/39 or Ervin Santana 4/55

[Yardball85]

It would be the same deal for Ervin here if they picked him last year.

But they didn't. So the question is, would you rather have signed Santana this year, or be where we're at now with Ubaldo. 2014 is a sunk cost vis a vis Ubaldo.

[lovetoaster]

Ervin at 4 for 55. Why do you put Ubaldo at 3 for 39 are you forgetting the 12m they paid him last year?

He is talking about moving forward. The cost commitment from today on. We obviously can't forget last year, but it is not part of the equation moving forward.

[notyourbuddy]

No point in having a great defense if you've got a pitcher on the mound who just walks people.

I'd go with Santana. It'd be like adding another Tillman to the rotation. Not great, but good enough.

[Camden_yardbird]

Exactly. He is downright filthy at times too. Santana has always been the better of the two.

Dumb question-did he cost a pick?

That is not even remotely true. And yes.

[weams]

No point in having a great defense if you've got a pitcher on the mound who just walks people.

I'd go with Santana. It'd be like adding another Tillman to the rotation. Not great, but good enough.

Santana for four 55 instead of Ubaldo for 3/39. You realize Ubaldo could completely tank a full season and still win that draw?

[LookitsPuck]

I picked Santana, but would not have either at those prices.

Santana at least throws the ball over the plate.[/quote]

Exactly. He is downright filthy at times too. Santana has always been the better of the two.

Dumb question-did he cost a pick?

Santana has not always been the better of the two.

Hell, just look at their career numbers. Santana below average, Ubaldo above.

The problem is Ubaldo's floor is terrible. Last 4 years ERA+: 77, 72, 115, 80. Last 4 years for Santana: 111, 74, 127, 92

Santana is more consistent. I think Ubaldo has better stuff. His control is terrible...and I don't like pitchers with poor control. Although I'm chalking 2014 up to an extreme aberration. His walk rate was 5.5. His career is 4.2. His last 4 years prior to this year was 4.0. That's nearly 30% higher than his past 4 years. I think we're going to have a pitcher more like 2013 Ubaldo than 2014 Ubaldo in 2015. He's a hard worker.

[Rene88]

Santana has not always been the better of the two.

Hell, just look at their career numbers. Santana below average, Ubaldo above.

The problem is Ubaldo's floor is terrible. Last 4 years ERA+: 77, 72, 115, 80. Last 4 years for Santana: 111, 74, 127, 92

Santana is more consistent. I think Ubaldo has better stuff. His control is terrible...and I don't like pitchers with poor control. Although I'm chalking 2014 up to an extreme aberration. His walk rate was 5.5. His career is 4.2. His last 4 years prior to this year was 4.0. That's nearly 30% higher than his past 4 years. I think we're going to have a pitcher more like 2013 Ubaldo than 2014 Ubaldo in 2015. He's a hard worker.

Good write up sir. Thanks. I sure hope he picks it up this year, seems like a class act.

He does seem to be good every other year:)

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[mikegallo]

It's pretty clearly Santana and it's not really that close....I did like Ubadlo slightly more than him last year I'll admit I was wrong...Nobody in baseball would take Ubadlo and his contract for a bag of balls and clearly their are teams who would give Ervin the deal he just got..

[Il BuonO]

ERA+ of 112 and fewer years at a lower AAV or ERA+ of 100 and a year older? Not particularly close. It's Ubaldo.

I think the poll question skews the reality of what the likely choices would have been for us to sign either last year. What if you had to sign either of them last year to the contracts that were eventually signed by both? Jimenez and his four year deal he signed last year with us and Santana's deal he just signed are not that dissimilar.

The numbers posted by both for the last four years by playbaltimore are accurate but it's a crapshoot as to who you get more production from over the life of either contract.

Obviously, since we have Ubaldo for only three more years I prefer him now, but I feel exactly the same about Santana's contract as I did Jimenez' last year; too many years for a guy who has been inconsistent lately.

[weams]

I think the poll question skews the reality of what the likely choices would have been for us to sign either last year. What if you had to sign either of them last year to the contracts that were eventually signed by both? Jimenez and his four year deal he signed last year with us and Santana's deal he just signed are not that dissimilar.

The numbers posted by both for the last four years by playbaltimore are accurate but it's a crapshoot as to who you get more production from over the life of either contract.

Obviously, since we have Ubaldo for only three more years I prefer him now, but I feel exactly the same about Santana's contract as I did Jimenez' last year; too many years for a guy who has been inconsistent lately.

I just thought that the Twins should have learned from us. I like the current situation much better for us. Last year, I still would have picked Ubaldo based on his ground ball rates and Ks.

[Il BuonO]

I just thought that the Twins should have learned from us. I like the current situation much better for us. Last year, I still would have picked Ubaldo based on his ground ball rates and Ks.

They should have, no doubt. I thought four years was too many, but you know this. And the year before Santana had shown better GB rates than Ubaldo probably due to his increased use of the slider. This was detailed in a FG piece if I remember.

[MurphDogg]

If Santana were on the Orioles he would be the 7th best starter.

[weams]

They should have, no doubt. I thought four years was too many, but you know this. And the year before Santana had shown better GB rates than Ubaldo probably due to his increased use of the slider. This was detailed in a FG piece if I remember.

I think I remember.

[Nevermore]

I'm a little confused about the point of this thread. It's kind of a convoluted "what-if" involving 2 pitching contracts at different points of their careers. But at any rate, we have Ubaldo and we don't have Santana; Santana signed with the Twins this year, 4 year contract.

I looked at Santana's record. He didn't do badly for the Braves last year. On the other hand, Ubaldo had a horrible year this past year. It was fortunate that Buck put Ubaldo, presumably for mop-up duty, into the pen. I think that Ubaldo got the message that he needed coaching help to improve his mechanics, and with this help and his own hard work, he did improve. Instead of having him pitch mop-up for the rest of the season, Buck gave him a spot start for the crucial game where the Os were set to clinch. The rest is history.

I don't really see the point of comparing Santana-this year with Ubaldo-last year. We've got Ubaldo and I do believe that he'll continue to improve. If not, Buck won't be afraid of assigning him to mop-up duty again. But I have faith in Ubaldo and in Buck for improvement next year.

[weams]

I'm a little confused about the point of this thread. It's kind of a convoluted "what-if" involving 2 pitching contracts at different points of their careers. But at any rate, we have Ubaldo and we don't have Santana; Santana signed with the Twins this year, 4 year contract.

I looked at Santana's record. He didn't do badly for the Braves last year. On the other hand, Ubaldo had a horrible year this past year. It was fortunate that Buck put Ubaldo, presumably for mop-up duty, into the pen. I think that Ubaldo got the message that he needed coaching help to improve his mechanics, and with this help and his own hard work, he did improve. Instead of having him pitch mop-up for the rest of the season, Buck gave him a spot start for the crucial game where the Os were set to clinch. The rest is history.

I don't really see the point of comparing Santana-this year with Ubaldo-last year. We've got Ubaldo and I do believe that he'll continue to improve. If not, Buck won't be afraid of assigning him to mop-up duty again. But I have faith in Ubaldo and in Buck for improvement next year.

Santana just got that deal. So I am pretty sure the point was that we are not as underwater on Ubaldo's contract as we may think. A few good starts and Whammy! We are right back in the game.