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Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey - What Would it Take?


wildbillhiccup

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Just out of curiosity...how many players have to earn 20+ a year before they stop being called terrible deals and start being referred to as the cost of doing business with top talent in MLB?

When they work out. For most teams, they are a terrible deal. Which is why 20+ m deals tend to be concentrated within a few teams.

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Sort of. Myers and Lough both logged 2.4 fWAR. But Myers was three years younger and hadn't repeated AAA three times. Myers was also a top-50 prospect by numerous sources in multiple years.

Agreed, age and pedigree would of course make me want Myers more than Lough. But some people here want to avoid starting Lough at all costs, and some people here want to trade Bundy to get Myers. Myers might be more valuable than Lough but not by the amount of Bundy.

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I'd sign him to something like 5/75 but nothing more. Obviously he wouldn't accept but that's basically what he's worth. He's terrible defensively. Someone will give him 20-25 million a year and it will be a terrible deal.

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what you guys are talking about. Upton is not a free agent. He is a 1-year rental that ATL is shopping around the league. ATL could not get him to sign an extension and is looking to get as much value out of a trade as they can. Upton has made it pretty obvious that he wants to go for the big FA contract next winter and that an extension is not in the cards. Trading for him now gives a team virtually no edge in signing him next winter, as he wants to run a big auction for his services. The Orioles have the same chance right now to sign him as a free agent next winter that they would have if they made a trade with ATL to get him to play for us in 2015. To trade away value much greater than his estimated half-win excess value plus the value of a comp pick is foolhardy, IMO.

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I'm sorry, but I don't understand what you guys are talking about. Upton is not a free agent. He is a 1-year rental that ATL is shopping around the league. ATL could not get him to sign an extension and is looking to get as much value out of a trade as they can. Upton has made it pretty obvious that he wants to go for the big FA contract next winter and that an extension is not in the cards. Trading for him now gives a team virtually no edge in signing him next winter, as he wants to run a big auction for his services. The Orioles have the same chance right now to sign him as a free agent next winter that they would have if they made a trade with ATL to get him to play for us in 2015. To trade away value much greater than his estimated half-win excess value plus the value of a comp pick is foolhardy, IMO.

I never said I would trade for Upton. I want no part of him. I was responding to someone who said they'd sign him long term. I gave a hypothetical response that would never happen.

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The ROY thing overvalues Myers. David Lough had more WAR as a rookie in Myers' class than Myers did.

Not really. It's not about what a player has done, it's about what he will do. Lumping Myers in the same group as Lough, in terms potential and upside is pretty ridculous. Numbers and stats like WAR are great metric, but sometimes you have to step away from the page and ask yourself if what your saying, from a numbers standpoint, cuts the mustard.

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Not really. It's not about what a player has done, it's about what he will do. Lumping Myers in the same group as Lough, in terms potential and upside is pretty ridculous. Numbers and stats like WAR are great metric, but sometimes you have to step away from the page and ask yourself if what your saying, from a numbers standpoint, cuts the mustard.

Myers does have a pretty low floor for a ROY winner.

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Just out of curiosity...how many players have to earn 20+ a year before they stop being called terrible deals and start being referred to as the cost of doing business with top talent in MLB?

All of them. Because there are another 700 just waiting to get into that union that might be just as good. There is really no top talent any more. A handful of folks you can count on to year in and year out out perform what a very good player does.

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Or SteveBi(l)KodotcOm

I was generous.

These are Wil's most likely outcomes.

Jeff Abbott (975)

Chris Dickerson (975)

George Alusik (975)

Darnell McDonald (974)

Ned Harris (972)

Travis Buck (969)

Frank Doljack (969)

Mark Brouhard (968)

Skeeter Barnes (968)

Fred Sington (968)

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