Smith for Matusz...?

[Number5]

Smith was almost a 4 WAR player last year and I'd wager he's a safer bet than Kemp to put up more than 1 war especially considering health. With the extension he signed you can't say they have been the beneficiary of excess value from Smith.

However, saying it's clear they want to be rid of him because their $13 mil obligation seems to be overstating the matter. SD has a heavily weighted RH hitting lineup and Smith's presence mitigates that and the possibility of Kemp's ominous demise.

San Diego has taken on a pretty big salary increase. If you believe that they want a 6 million dollar LH bench bat, then we just disagree.

[Number5]

For the love of gravy, Brian Matusz has little or no trade value. People need to get that through their thick skulls. We're not getting a serviceable major league player for Brian Matusz.

Brian Matusz is a serviceable major league player. Pretending he is not doesn't change that fact.

[Number5]

By serviceable, do you mean replacement level? He's had 0 WAR for two of the last 3 years and has a total of .7 WAR over the last 3 years combined. That's .2 WAR per year. We just replaced him with a guy who could only get 1.7M on the open market, in Wesley Wright, who has averaged .5 WAR over the last 3 years. San Diego could have just paid Wesley Wright 2.4M and gotten him instead of Matusz. Why should Matusz have any value to anyone? The Orioles just showed the Padres that you can get someone just as good or better for 1/1.7M.

Over the last 3 years, Mike Morse has accumulated .3 WAR, with a grand total of 1 WAR coming last year. Somehow, he managed to snare a 2/16M contract. Seth Smith has accumulated 6.3 WAR over the last 3 years with his most recent year being 3.9 WAR.

Somehow you equate Brian Matusz as fair compensation for Seth Smith. Matusz has no value. The market shows us that Smith has a very fair contract. Finding a similar player for the same or less money is not as easy as doing the same with Matusz.

Disagree.

There is no excess value for Smith. To think that he will repeat a career year that he has never before come close to as he enters his mid 30's is not wise. He has consistently shown to be a 1 WAR player over his career. He is scheduled to be paid as a 1 WAR player. San Diego went out and paid big for not 1, not 2, but 3 new starting outfielders. They clearly don't view Smith as a 3.9 WAR player. Clearly.

Matusz will be paid what he is worth, as well.

Bottom line on Smith is that his salary is tough for San Diego to hold onto, given their large acquisitions and the fact that he will not be a regular player for them. Matusz would definitely be a fair trade, with a more affordable salary, but I'm not sure that San Diego has a need for him. There is just no reason to overpay for Smith. Push come to shove, San Diego will trade Smith, IMO, and it will not take a lot. MLB.com's Adams suggested a team's #15 to 20 ranked prospect. Sounds reasonable. I am not against trading for Smith. I am against overpaying for him, as some are suggesting here. It isn't necessary.

[MurphDogg]

So trading two players who are paid what they are worth is a fair trade? To extend that to it's logical conclusion, if Mike Trout is getting paid a fair contract based on his value then Brian Matusz would be a fair trade for him too.

Yup, you have succinctly summarized how trades word.

[Number5]

So trading two players who are paid what they are worth is a fair trade? To extend that to it's logical conclusion, if Mike Trout is getting paid a fair contract based on his value then Brian Matusz would be a fair trade for him too.

You don't have to value Smith at 3.9 and you shouldn't value him at 1 WAR. Last 3 years, 1.8, .6, 3.9. Looks to me like the mean is 1.8 and the average is 2.1. Yet you insist on labeling him a 1 WAR player. When we discussed Kemp, you conveniently left out his good years and just went with his last 3 years. Now, that methodology doesn't suit your agenda.

Once again, you are mixing your apples and oranges. Kemp was signed for additional 5 years at $107 million. Coming off of 3 mediocre-at-best years. Smith is a career 1 WAR player who had a career year. Night and day... and both BAD ideas to pay big in trade for - for differing reasons. The only similarity is that they are both are the wrong side of 30. No agenda. Just common sense.

Smith's 2014 is an obvious outlier. He already is no longer a starting outfielder for San Diego. And he is not getting any younger. San Diego clearly agrees with what I am saying. Their moves make that fact unmistakable. You are advocating paying a lot for Seth Smith. That is fine, but I disagree. I am confident that DD is talking with San Diego in terms that are much closer to what I'm suggesting than what you are suggesting. The whole thing for San Diego is they want to clear his salary off their books, IMO. I really believe that it won't take a whole lot for them to pull the trigger.

In any case, there is a zero percent chance of you convincing me that giving up a Chris Davis, or a Chen, or a Norris for Seth Smith makes any sense at all. It is equally obvious that I cannot convince you that we shouldn't give up meaningful talent for Smith.

In any case, we aren't going to decide anything tonight. It is late on Christmas Eve. Have a Happy Holiday.

[AlbionHero]

Does San Diego even have a spot in their bullpen for Matusz? They led the NL in bullpen ERA last year. I doubt he'd even make their 25 man roster.

[wildbillhiccup]

By serviceable, do you mean replacement level? He's had 0 WAR for two of the last 3 years and has a total of .7 WAR over the last 3 years combined. That's .2 WAR per year. We just replaced him with a guy who could only get 1.7M on the open market, in Wesley Wright, who has averaged .5 WAR over the last 3 years. San Diego could have just paid Wesley Wright 2.4M and gotten him instead of Matusz. Why should Matusz have any value to anyone? The Orioles just showed the Padres that you can get someone just as good or better for 1/1.7M.

Over the last 3 years, Mike Morse has accumulated .3 WAR, with a grand total of 1 WAR coming last year. Somehow, he managed to snare a 2/16M contract. Seth Smith has accumulated 6.3 WAR over the last 3 years with his most recent year being 3.9 WAR.

Somehow you equate Brian Matusz as fair compensation for Seth Smith. Matusz has no value. The market shows us that Smith has a very fair contract. Finding a similar player for the same or less money is not as easy as doing the same with Matusz.

Nailed it. Thank you for taking the time to do the research. Spot on post. For some reason these outlandish trade ideas seems to get under my skin. You have to give something to get something. It's a simple concept and one that seems to elude quite a few of the OH members. There's absolutely nothing wrong with two teams trading from positions of strength to fill areas of weaknesses. But it has to be fair and benefit both sides. That's something we all tend to overlook in all our hypothetical trade scenarios. Yes that Padres seem to have a glut of OFs, but what do they need? Certainly not Brian Matusz. My guess is, if they trade Smith, they'll be looking to recoup some of the prospects they've given away in the other trades that they've made.

[EagleOriole]

Oh, I've backed off of my multiple player trade. I don't think we'll have to give up anything too much for Smith. I just don't think Matusz alone gets him. A 15-20 prospect is probably more valuable than Matusz. Agree to disagree. Smith has been significantly better than 1 WAR, 2 of the last 3 years. You can call 3.9 last year an outlier but that doesn't mean it should be thrown out completely, like it never happened. He's been better than a 1 WAR player 2 of the last 3 years, plain and simple. That makes his contract a good one, even if I'm wrong and he his a 1 WAR player, but there is just as much chance of him being a 2 WAR player, which again, he's done twice over the last 3 years.

You don't have to convince me to not give up meaningful talent to get Smith. I don't think we have to and I don't think we should. We just disagree on the value of Brian Matusz, which I believe is just about zero. And we disagree on the value of Smith who you have pegged as a 1 WAR player and I have pegged as a 2 WAR player.

And I have backed off Matusz for Smith - but I still want to find a trade that works for Smith. I feel he would be a great pick-up for our offense.

[mdbdotcom]

Brian Matusz is a serviceable major league player. Pretending he is not doesn't change that fact.

Unless he is released by the Orioles (and signed for less as a free agent) or traded for a player with an even worse contract, or acquired late in spring training as an emergency replacement for a LOOGY on a contender, I don't expect to see Brian Matusz in the majors this year. Too bad they had to wait for Wright to be non-tendered before signing him. Otherwise, they could have non-tendered Matusz.

[mdbdotcom]

I wonder if TJ McFarland would make sense for Smith. He hasn't delivered much value yet, but at 26 years old with a minimum contract, five more years of team control, and one option remaining, he could be useful to the Padres. He's more than a 15-20 prospect, less than a starter, and eminently replaceable while providing some flexibility and salary relief to San Diego.

[EagleOriole]

I wonder if TJ McFarland would make sense for Smith. He hasn't delivered much value yet, but at 26 years old with a minimum contract, five more years of team control, and one option remaining, he could be useful to the Padres. He's more than a 15-20 prospect, less than a starter, and eminently replaceable while providing some flexibility and salary relief to San Diego.

Look at San Diego's depth chart at the #4-5 starter - he might get a rotation spot. That would be a good get for the Padres and a fair trade IMO. Nice call.

[AlbionHero]

Nailed it. Thank you for taking the time to do the research. Spot on post. For some reason these outlandish trade ideas seems to get under my skin. You have to give something to get something. It's a simple concept and one that seems to elude quite a few of the OH members. There's absolutely nothing wrong with two teams trading from positions of strength to fill areas of weaknesses. But it has to be fair and benefit both sides. That's something we all tend to overlook in all our hypothetical trade scenarios. Yes that Padres seem to have a glut of OFs, but what do they need? Certainly not Brian Matusz. My guess is, if they trade Smith, they'll be looking to recoup some of the prospects they've given away in the other trades that they've made.

This does kinda bug me a bit too... sometimes it seems like people don't really look at other team needs. It would be like us trading one of our extra starters for a SS or CF. The last thing the Padres need a is an average relief pitcher.

[Can_of_corn]

This does kinda bug me a bit too... sometimes it seems like people don't really look at other team needs. It would be like us trading one of our extra starters for a SS or CF. The last thing the Padres need a is an average relief pitcher.

The last thing they need is a fourth outfielder.

[AlbionHero]

The last thing they need is a fourth outfielder.

Well its been stated by some analysts that they may want to keep him to have a OF option off the bench. He still gives them value.

[AlbionHero]

*to have a left handed OF option off the bench