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MASN: Steve Meleswski on Jon Schoop's Offense


weams

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Schoop's minor league numbers are .268/.335/.407. Considering how young he was going through the system, it's reasonable to imagine the similar line from him in the majors; maybe a little lower in OBP and higher in slugging. A .742 OPS last year would translate to about a 109 OPS+.

Even if Schoop makes a small improvement -- say, .225/.275/.400 -- that's a .675 OPS, or roughly a 92 OPS+, from the #9 spot in the lineup.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/czerny/articles/calculatingMLEs.htm

First, we need to find the MLE hits. To get it, we multiply minor league hits * .98 * M * PM

Then, we need to find the MLE Doubles. To get it, we multiply minor league doubles * M * PM

Then, the MLE triples. To get them, we multiply minor league triples * m * .85 * PM

Then, the MLE homers. To get them, we multiply minor league homers * m * PM

Then, for the RBI and R, we multiply them each by m and then by the PM.

For walks, we do minor league walks * m * PM

For strikeouts, we simply do minor league strikeouts * 1.05 * PM

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Jon Schoop wil be a Cano like star in this league. Book it.

With you, Roy? For how much? Just for reference Schoop had a better first season than Cano (1.5 rWAR to 0.8), both at age 22, but Cano has accumulated 51.5 over his 10 year career. So, Schoop is off to a good start for his age.

I know he's regularly bashed around here but Cano has been a steady offensive producer and in seven of those 10 seasons he's never had less than 4.5 WAR.

Schoop is a good player but he's not at that level.

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I did find this interesting article from a few years ago:

http://thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com/tag/jonathan-schoop/

Sometimes guys show a lot of tools early in their Minor League careers, like Brandon Wood hitting 43 homers in 2005 in the California League, only to flame out, like Brandon Wood has for the Angels and Pirates at the age of 27, and never amount to anything near what they were supposed to, like Brandon Wood of the Colorado Rockies?

Then, there are other guys who show tools and work out, like Mike Stanton, who hit 39 homers in his first full season in the Minors in 2008 and now has 56 homers in 250 Major League games.

Jon Schoop was a shortstop and will probably be a third baseman for the Orioles. He turned 20-years-old in October, so he played all of 2011 as a 19-year-old. Keep that in mind when you see that he posted these numbers:

Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

DEL SAL .316 51 212 45 67 12 3 8 34 109 20 32 6 4 .376 .514 .890

FRE CAR .271 77 299 37 81 12 2 5 37 112 22 44 6 3 .329 .375 .704

Minors .290 128 511 82 148 24 5 13 71 221 42 76 12 7 .349 .432 .781

So, he didn't hit 43 homers like Wood or 39 like Stanton. He did have solid gap power with his 29 combined doubles and triples PLUS the ability to hit for power with 13 bombs. 13 isn't a number that would strike fear into pitchers, but it will be. At 6'1″, 187 pounds, Schoop will fill out. He is the type of guy that Dynasty League fantasy nerds need to check out. He's young, projectable and he plays for a bad team -- all of that means that he will move, move quickly and earn a shot sooner than later to play in Baltimore. Schoop showed solid plate discipline and stole 12 bases. While his OPS and SLG could leave you wishing for more right now, he is a guy that should be tucked away. Keep your eyes peeled to his stats. He'll possibly start the year in High-A again, but if he shows the same skills he did in his 77 games there in 2011, he'll be one of the younger players in Double-A.

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Jon Schoop wil be a Cano like star in this league. Book it.

There are some similarities. Both are big for a 2B, both have strong throwing arms, both have good power. However, Cano has much better contact skills. He's never struck out 100 times in a season, while Schoop whiffed 122 times last year. Cano had a .320 OBP, 106 OPS+ as a 22-year old rookie. That's miles ahead of Schoop at the same age. Schoop is not going to be Cano.

That's not to say he can't be an all-star. Down the road, i could see Schoop being a .260/.310/.450 kind of guy. In these days of shrinking offense, that might be all-star level.

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