The This Team IS Done, We are Dumb and Nothing can Fix it MEGA THREAD

[DrungoHazewood]

If we had signed Cruz, Markakis and Miller and not signed Matusz, Snider, Hunter and De Aza. how would we be? We'd have a close to 140 M payroll, we'd have Cruz at DH(no Paredes) with an occasional LF appearance, Pearce and Lough splitting most of the time in LF, Markakis in RF hitting for for 50 points OPS less than the current RF mix, and Miller replacing Hunter in the pen. How many more games would we have won?

My guess is about two. But in such a small number of games it's highly dependent on the when - Cruz and Miller could have a greater/worse WPA impact than WAR.

I also think that Cruz would be getting half or more of his PAs as an outfielder, Paredes would also be either gone or splitting time at various positions where he's a negative fielder. And that Markakis' glove would be no better than what the O's currently have.

You know what I really need to do... set up two OOTP16 MLB games, one with the current team, and one with Cruz, Miller, and Markakis on the team. Then play out the first two months of the season about 100 times each.

[El Gordo]

My guess is about two. But in such a small number of games it's highly dependent on the when - Cruz and Miller could have a greater/worse WPA impact than WAR.

I also think that Cruz would be getting half or more of his PAs as an outfielder, Paredes would also be either gone or splitting time at various positions where he's a negative fielder. And that Markakis' glove would be no better than what the O's currently have.

You know what I really need to do... set up two OOTP16 MLB games, one with the current team, and one with Cruz, Miller, and Markakis on the team. Then play out the first two months of the season about 100 times each.

That would be unfortunate. He currently has a -11 UZR.

[DrungoHazewood]

Reliever are a fickle bunch, they lose their mojo and even regain it back.

$12 million is a ton of money for a set up man.

What would his WAR be, as a setup man?

It was only .9 last season for the Orioles.

0.9 wins in 20 innings is near the extreme upper end of what's possible. Extrapolating that out to 200 innings gives you something like Pedro's 2000 season.

Each year there are only a small handful of relievers worth 2+ wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

That would be unfortunate. He currently has a -11 UZR.

Yep, I'm aware of that. But Cruz got 580 innings in the outfield last year, over 1/3rd of the schedule. I'm guessing, but I think he'd get a few games a week in the field (which I know is less that the "half his games" I just posted 10 minutes ago).

[Redskins Rick]

0.9 wins in 20 innings is near the extreme upper end of what's possible. Extrapolating that out to 200 innings gives you something like Pedro's 2000 season.

Each year there are only a small handful of relievers worth 2+ wins.

And you dont give 2-win guys, 12 million a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

And you dont give 2-win guys, 12 million a year.

Well, yes you do. Two wins on the free agent market is currently going for about $15M. The issue with relievers is that not too many of them are consistently 2-win performers. By Fangraphs' figuring Trevor Hoffman was never worth two wins the last eight years of his career. Koji has been worth two wins once. Darren O'Day peaked out at 1.4. Miller was worth 2.2 last year, but less than two combining his other 2+ years as a reliever. All you can really count on is a win or so. I think teams fool themselves into thinking relievers will be at peak levels more often than they are.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz is just about the most productive hitter in baseball so far.

Just in the abstract, the difference over two months between the best player in baseball and a replacement level player OPSing .620 is about three wins. Cruz, by fWAR, has been worth 1.9 wins (mainly because his fielding has been Mark Reynolds at third base bad) while the O's DH/RF/LF has been poor but not replacement level, with some rather exceptional stuff like Paredes hitting almost as well as Cruz for a month. I'd guess that adding Cruz over the winter would have meant a win or two so far.

[Ohfan67]

You know what I really need to do... set up two OOTP16 MLB games, one with the current team, and one with Cruz, Miller, and Markakis on the team. Then play out the first two months of the season about 100 times each.

That would be fantastic.

[Fla_O'sfan]

Some on here are arguing that signing Cruz, Miller, and Markakis would not help this team. Maybe they are right.....maybe the Orioles are beyond help this season. If Cruz (.330 18 39), wouldn't help, I'm not sure how adding Josh Reddick would (but I'm not a number guy).

[Crazysilver03]

Some on here are arguing that signing Cruz' date=' Miller, and Markakis would not help this team. Maybe they are right.....maybe the Orioles are beyond help this season. If Cruz (.330 18 39), wouldn't help, I'm not sure how adding Josh Reddick would (but I'm not a number guy).[/quote']

Who said Miller or Cruz wouldn't help this team? No one has said that.

[TonySoprano]

I don't know what it is when leading after 6 but I would guess it would have been better with Miller.

The Orioles are 20-4 when leading after 6 innings and 20-0 when leading after 7. The mark in 2014 was 72-7 after the 6th, so to match that the Orioles would need to go 52-3 the rest of the way.

We're also 3-21 when trailing after 6, almost 180 degrees different, and 0-24 and 0-25 when trailing after 7 and 8 respectively. In other words, we have yet to have a late inning come from behind victory. While that sounds terrible, and it is, consider in 2014, 8-50 after the 6th, 5-52 when trailing after 7, and 3-34 when trailing after the 8th.

[Three Run Homer]

Andrew Miller is the guy I least regret not signing, given the outrageous contract the Yankees gave him.

But still, you can't conclude that he wouldn't help us just because the O's haven't blown many leads in the late innings. Our bullpen has done a poor job keeping games close once we fall a little behind. Miller wouldn't get many of those assignments, but if he was here then we'd have Brach or O'Day pitching in some of those situations, and they probably would have done better than Matusz, Hunter, and Garcia.

[Dark Helmet]

I think people who think about baseball are in a better position to make judgments about acquisitions and budgets than those who watch baseball and mock anyone who thinks too deeply about it. And the "most of his big league career with bum knees" is clearly hyperbolic nonsense..

Im glad you feel you are in a better position than I to make judgment calls regarding team budgets and transactions. You should send the Orioles your resume. Show Dan how it's done and turn this season around. As for sabermetrics-baseball managed just fine before a mathematician came to the conclusion baseball was too boring for him. Any formulas that say Nelson Cruz would only add 1-2 wins to this current team is bs to me. That's my opinion. I don't begrudge anyone that disagrees with me.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Im glad you feel you are in a better position than I to make judgment calls regarding team budgets and transactions. You should send the Orioles your resume. Show Dan how it's done and turn this season around. As for sabermetrics-baseball managed just fine before a mathematician came to the conclusion baseball was too boring for him. Any formulas that say Nelson Cruz would only add 1-2 wins to this current team is bs to me. That's my opinion. I don't begrudge anyone that disagrees with me.

Right, it's not that analytics made sense for valuation and financial reasons, it was those damn math guys wanting to spice things up. Next thing they'll be providing me a formula about how to bang the old lady.

[DrungoHazewood]

As for sabermetrics-baseball managed just fine before a mathematician came to the conclusion baseball was too boring for him.

That's awesome. Maybe you should found a new professional league where everyone agrees to only use the knowledge available to those in 1960. Or if that's too complicated and boring, 1920. I know Branch Rickey and others were using some types of metrics and data in the 40s and 50s. Stupid math people trying to win more baseball games instead of just enjoying the green grass and the time off work.