Dan's Offseason Moves Part One: Cruz

[Aristotelian]

Exactly. All of those guys that DD brought in would not have replaced Cruz's production even if they had performed as expected. It was not just bad luck, it was poor evaluations. Thinking that the Orioles didn't need Cruz's production was a huge miscalculation.

Dan was banking on increased production from Machado, Davis, and Wieters to maintain our offensive production and replace Cruz. He has pretty much gotten that. Even with the recent slide, we are #8 in MLB in runs scored and #9 in OPS. About where we were last year. Dan's plan to replace Cruz's production basically worked.

If the pitchers would have held up their end of the bargain, we basically would have had the same production as the team that won 96 games and swept the Tigers in the ALDS. Unfortunately, Norris, Gonzo, and Tillman have regressed in varying degrees of severity, while any marginal improvements from Ubaldo has not been nearly enough to compensate. Chen and Gausman have treaded water. It seems to me we are starting every game with a 2 or 3 run deficit. With the way MLB bullpens are these days, you are not going to win that way, even with Cruz.

If the O's were going to go "all in," I would have wanted Scherzer but that was never on the table.

[Redskins Rick]

Exactly. All of those guys that DD brought in would not have replaced Cruz's production even if they had performed as expected. It was not just bad luck, it was poor evaluations. Thinking that the Orioles didn't need Cruz's production was a huge miscalculation.

Not having Cruz is not the reason this team is struggling.

Last I check, Cruz doesn't pitch and doesn't play SS.

[Nevermore]

Not having Cruz is not the reason this team is struggling.

Last I check, Cruz doesn't pitch and doesn't play SS.

Having Cruz could have meant that the O's wouldn't get to this spot of struggling so much, especially on offense. Cruz wouldn't have been the entire solution: look at how Seattle is doing in spite of Cruz. But he would have added a lot to Macado's and Davis's production.

As for pitching: when your team can't score more than 3 runs at the most, it puts a strain on the pitching staff. A starting pitcher starts the game thinking that he has to keep his opponents' run production down to 2 at the most. This isn't the entire cause of our failing starting pitching, but it adds on to the struggles. Cruz being part of the offense would have given a shot in the arm (so to speak) to the starting pitchers' performance.

[SteveO]

Not having Cruz is not the reason this team is struggling.

Last I check, Cruz doesn't pitch and doesn't play SS.

Well I think that your oversimplifying this whole thing.

The fact that the pitching has regressed from the excellent second half they had last year is no real surprise to most people. The numbers they put in the second half appeared to be unsustainable and it has turned out exactly that way. Nelson Cruz or another solid offensive player would have provided some measure of protection against that.

Again my biggest issue with the offseason was that from day 1 it felt like the goal was to get a team that was approximately as good as last years rather than to supplement it and make it better. Name me ONE move this offseason that resembled a team that was aggressively pursuing a championship rather than a team that was hoping to tread water. In fairness to DD, he cant sign guys with Monopoly money, if his budget was what it was, I am not sure how much more he could have done.

[Babypowder]

No hindsight involved here, not at all.

[Can_of_corn]

No hindsight involved here, not at all.

And that is why every poll should be public.

[Redskins Rick]

Well I think that your oversimplifying this whole thing.

The fact that the pitching has regressed from the excellent second half they had last year is no real surprise to most people. The numbers they put in the second half appeared to be unsustainable and it has turned out exactly that way. Nelson Cruz or another solid offensive player would have provided some measure of protection against that.

Again my biggest issue with the offseason was that from day 1 it felt like the goal was to get a team that was approximately as good as last years rather than to supplement it and make it better. Name me ONE move this offseason that resembled a team that was aggressively pursuing a championship rather than a team that was hoping to tread water. In fairness to DD, he cant sign guys with Monopoly money, if his budget was what it was, I am not sure how much more he could have done.

Cruz has no impact whatsoever on Tillman inability to resemble the pitcher he was the previous 3 seasons and for that matter for Norris either.

You popo the budget as it is what it is, but clearly, its higher than it's been, and moves like Cabrera with no roster spot available, yet, insurance, because you are not sure what your INF will look like, is not something a budget poor team does.

Maybe the available FA CoF wasn't that great, look at the money that the Braves pony upped for Markakis.

[SteveO]

No hindsight involved here, not at all.

Yup....just to be sure I checked what I posted on that poll....think I was a wee bit harsh but not way off base given how things went down. I never expected Cruz though to have the year he has had, I expected a mild regression.

From That Thread......

"Honestly I just wonder how you replace the production.

[Beef Supreme]

This poll is hilarious. An overwhelming majority were against the deal when it was signed, as is evidenced in the same poll at the actual time the deal was signed.

Then he went and had his best year ever and people are acting like they knew it was mistake all along and getting indignant about it. It's quite entertaining.

I read so many times over the off-season that Cruz had a "career year" in 2014. Yet, he had a fantastic 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and was on pace for 40 HRs prior to the suspension in 2013. There is no guarantee that he will produce to the same level over the last two years of the contract, but the consensus was he'd stink those last two years. I am surprised that he is hitting at MVP caliber this year at Safeco, but I wouldn't have been surprised by another 40 HRs if Oriole Park had been his home field this year. Thing is, for him to continue to stay healthy, he was destined to transition to full-time DH. If you wanted (or now want) to sign him to a four year deal, you'd have to accept that he'd be solely a DH. Ortiz has succeeded in that role over his late 30's. There's no good reason not to think that Cruz could similarly succeed as a (nearly) full-time DH over the next three years.

[Nevermore]

Yup....just to be sure I checked what I posted on that poll....think I was a wee bit harsh but not way off base given how things went down. I never expected Cruz though to have the year he has had, I expected a mild regression.

From That Thread......

"Honestly I just wonder how you replace the production.

I voted "yes" on that poll. And I'm still voting "yes, we should have kept Cruz" on this poll.

[Nevermore]

Dan was banking on increased production from Machado, Davis, and Wieters to maintain our offensive production and replace Cruz. He has pretty much gotten that. Even with the recent slide, we are #8 in MLB in runs scored and #9 in OPS. About where we were last year. Dan's plan to replace Cruz's production basically worked.

If the pitchers would have held up their end of the bargain, we basically would have had the same production as the team that won 96 games and swept the Tigers in the ALDS. Unfortunately, Norris, Gonzo, and Tillman have regressed in varying degrees of severity, while any marginal improvements from Ubaldo has not been nearly enough to compensate. Chen and Gausman have treaded water. It seems to me we are starting every game with a 2 or 3 run deficit. With the way MLB bullpens are these days, you are not going to win that way, even with Cruz.

If the O's were going to go "all in," I would have wanted Scherzer but that was never on the table.

Having Cruz on the team would have added to the team's offensive production, not replaced Machado, Davis, and Wieters. The idea is to make the team better, not just make it as good as it was before.

[LookitsPuck]

And that is why every poll should be public.

I don't think that's fair. The problem with not resigning Cruz or Markakis and having people say that they were for not doing so....is that we fans think that Duquette would do the right thing and actually...you know...REPLACE THEIR PRODUCTION AND CONSISTENCY.

This is the thing that falls on deaf ears. Duquette went out and signed a bunch of people and hoped 3 would stick. The problem is...you can't do that with guys like Parmelee, Lough, Reimold, De Aza, Young, Snider and to a lesser extent Pearce. And then having to call up guys like Urrutia, Lake and now Alvarez.

These guys are role players. I don't care how much De Aza performed in a relatively small sample size. Or that Young was good off the bench. Or that Reimold MIGHT be healthy and MIGHT contribute...or that Lough had a "down year" even though his "up year"wasn't much of a track record. And that Parmelee was pretty much up and down from the majors to the minors by the Twins for a reason. Or Pearce to be healthy and repeat his 2014. Oh...and trading 2 lefty arms for Travis Snider who really had 1 half a of a good season. It's like buying in to Ubaldo Jimenez. This has been Duquette's flaw. He buys high and sells low.

You can't afford to have *3* vacant spots and hope you can fulfill them with the above players. It's fool's gold.

So we can bemoan OH fans who voted for not signing him or Markakis....but I can guarantee those that did so did so under the impression that Duquette would have done something to replace that talent. You know...instead of having 1 foot out the door and scrambling last minute to get someone (ANYONE!), i.e. Travis Snider.

When as a GM Duquette has done little to nothing to bolster the minor league system outside of value signings (see: no impact players) and then trading away what little talent we have...it's extremely hard to bounce back when you completely and utterly failed at shoring up LF, RF and DH.

[Stotle]

I don't think that's fair. The problem with not resigning Cruz or Markakis and having people say that they were for not doing so....is that we fans think that Duquette would do the right thing and actually...you know...REPLACE THEIR PRODUCTION AND CONSISTENCY.

This is the thing that falls on deaf ears. Duquette went out and signed a bunch of people and hoped 3 would stick. The problem is...you can't do that with guys like Parmelee, Lough, Reimold, De Aza, Young, Snider and to a lesser extent Pearce. And then having to call up guys like Urrutia, Lake and now Alvarez.

These guys are role players. I don't care how much De Aza performed in a relatively small sample size. Or that Young was good off the bench. Or that Reimold MIGHT be healthy and MIGHT contribute...or that Lough had a "down year" even though his "up year"wasn't much of a track record. And that Parmelee was pretty much up and down from the majors to the minors by the Twins for a reason. Or Pearce to be healthy and repeat his 2014. Oh...and trading 2 lefty arms for Travis Snider who really had 1 half a of a good season. It's like buying in to Ubaldo Jimenez. This has been Duquette's flaw. He buys high and sells low.

You can't afford to have *3* vacant spots and hope you can fulfill them with the above players. It's fool's gold.

So we can bemoan OH fans who voted for not signing him or Markakis....but I can guarantee those that did so did so under the impression that Duquette would have done something to replace that talent. You know...instead of having 1 foot out the door and scrambling last minute to get someone (ANYONE!), i.e. Travis Snider.

When as a GM Duquette has done little to nothing to bolster the minor league system outside of value signings (see: no impact players) and then trading away what little talent we have...it's extremely hard to bounce back when you completely and utterly failed at shoring up LF, RF and DH.

I read the previous thread linked to -- thought the proponents for signing Cruz generally made better arguments and saw little that seemed over the top or unreasonable. I agree with almost everything you type above, as well.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think that's fair. The problem with not resigning Cruz or Markakis and having people say that they were for not doing so....is that we fans think that Duquette would do the right thing and actually...you know...REPLACE THEIR PRODUCTION AND CONSISTENCY.

This is the thing that falls on deaf ears. Duquette went out and signed a bunch of people and hoped 3 would stick. The problem is...you can't do that with guys like Parmelee, Lough, Reimold, De Aza, Young, Snider and to a lesser extent Pearce. And then having to call up guys like Urrutia, Lake and now Alvarez.

These guys are role players. I don't care how much De Aza performed in a relatively small sample size. Or that Young was good off the bench. Or that Reimold MIGHT be healthy and MIGHT contribute...or that Lough had a "down year" even though his "up year"wasn't much of a track record. And that Parmelee was pretty much up and down from the majors to the minors by the Twins for a reason. Or Pearce to be healthy and repeat his 2014. Oh...and trading 2 lefty arms for Travis Snider who really had 1 half a of a good season. It's like buying in to Ubaldo Jimenez. This has been Duquette's flaw. He buys high and sells low.

You can't afford to have *3* vacant spots and hope you can fulfill them with the above players. It's fool's gold.

So we can bemoan OH fans who voted for not signing him or Markakis....but I can guarantee those that did so did so under the impression that Duquette would have done something to replace that talent. You know...instead of having 1 foot out the door and scrambling last minute to get someone (ANYONE!), i.e. Travis Snider.

When as a GM Duquette has done little to nothing to bolster the minor league system outside of value signings (see: no impact players) and then trading away what little talent we have...it's extremely hard to bounce back when you completely and utterly failed at shoring up LF, RF and DH.

Except you can do that when you win the division by 12 games and are expecting growth from Machado and Schoop and improvement from Davis and Wieters.

The problem is the starting pitching went to pot.

If the O's had received anything close to the projected numbers from the group that manned the corners and the pitching had held up they would be in great shape.

[LookitsPuck]

Except you can do that when you win the division by 12 games and are expecting growth from Machado and Schoop and improvement from Davis and Wieters.

The problem is the starting pitching went to pot.

If the O's had received anything close to the projected numbers from the group that manned the corners and the pitching had held up they would be in great shape.

Expecting Wieters to be healthy and perform well would be incredibly irresponsible, IMHO.

As for Schoop, yes he's been a savior this year. I honestly didn't think Schoop would be anywhere near a 128 OPS. I would have figured MAYBE 90. He had a 66 last year. It was either a homer, a strikeout or a weakly hit ball. Davis....I thought would rebound as well.

Even still, you can NOT go into a season with 3 glaring holes in your lineup and 2 glaring holes in the field. Even IF Wieters was healthy, even IF Davis rebounded, even IF Schoop and Machado took a step forward...you then have 3 spots with HUGE question marks.

I agree 100% that the starting pitching is a disaster, but let's call a spade a spade. Duquette signed Ubaldo Jimenez which was a bad signing then due to inconsistency and being hooked into half a season of success. Duquette was 100% banking of Norris being the pitcher he was in 2014 or at least close to it. He and Buck did little to nothing to have a contingency plan in case 1 or more members of the rotation were ineffective or healthy. Gausman was NOT developed (he was thrown in the bullpen and yo-yo'd again), Bundy coming off TJS...I guess you could argue Harvey. But after that? I didn't think then (and I didn't think now) that the depth in the minors for SP was really all that great.

I'll give Duquette the benefit of the doubt in that nobody thought Gonzo would fall off a cliff and Tillman would be Captain Mediocre (and Captain Awful to start the year). But with no real impact options in the minors that are developed properly...it glares even more. And that goes back to the top, IMHO.