Dan's Offseason Moves Part One: Cruz

[Nevermore]

In the offseason poll on whether we should have matched Seattle's offer, 76% said no. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/145416-Would-you-have-matched-SEA-offer-to-keep-Cruz-an-Oriole?highlight=cruz So there's a ton of 20/20 hindsight going on here IMO. As I've said a few times recently, if I had known Cruz would have this good of a season in 2015, I would have been in favor of the deal. But there was no reason to expect him to be this good in 2015. More likely was that he'd be somewhat down from 2014 (though still pretty good), and then the back end of the deal would be extremely risky.

I was one of the minority who voted "Yes" in the previous poll about resigning Cruz. It doesn't make me happy that now I can say "see, I told you so" and that I'm now in the majority.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Sandoval or Ramirez, lol.

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If we give Cruz his money, we don't have it to pay for Sandoval or Ramirez. And don't say PA has the money; Dan is on a budget, whether we like it or not.

[backwardsk]

If we give Cruz his money' date=' we don't have it to pay for Sandoval or Ramirez. And don't say PA has the money; Dan is on a budget, whether we like it or not.[/quote']

Oh, I understand. My response was in jest. It's real easy to say that extending Hardy was a mistake after his injury plagued year. Filling that hole is more difficult.

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[Rick_Schu]

He's leading the Majors in home runs. Yeah, I wish we bit the bullet and signed him. I don't care if he's watching the games with Bobby Bo in 2019, this was our window and I want to win a World Series. Teams that win and go to the world series make more money

[Scrat1]

I agree with everything you said here except one thing: I am sure there are plenty of examples of guys who had a better season at 34 than they did at 33. It happens often enough.

Hopefully Drungo will come by and repost it, but somewhere he posted Cruz's historical comps and what he's doing right now is pretty close to unprecedented: for a guy with his career numbers, injury history, age, and offensive profile. You're right about it being common when players happen to have better seasons at 34 than 33. What's not common is for a pretty good outfielder/DH with an injury history to all the sudden become one of the premier hitters in baseball in his mid thirties. By the end of this year, he's going to have had about ~9 WAR over the past two seasons. Before 2014, he was at about ~14 WAR for his entire career. This is pretty unusual.

[gmelson26]

I really wanted him back. I was fine with the 4th year. I did not think he would completely replace his value from last year, so in hindsight I'm even more in favor of the deal.

The rest of the division (TOR and MFY) were getting better over the off season and we won't have Jones, Machado, Schoop, Buck, Davis forever.. the window is closing and eventually the Red Sox and Yankees will start shedding old contracts and start really spending.

The window was now. You go for it. So what if 3-4 years from now you have a 1-2 win year from Cruz?

[Can_of_corn]

I really wanted him back. I was fine with the 4th year. I did not think he would completely replace his value from last year, so in hindsight I'm even more in favor of the deal.

The rest of the division (TOR and MFY) were getting better over the off season and we won't have Jones, Machado, Schoop, Buck, Davis forever.. the window is closing and eventually the Red Sox and Yankees will start shedding old contracts and start really spending.

The window was now. You go for it. So what if 3-4 years from now you have a 1-2 win year from Cruz?

Wot?

The fear wasn't that you would get a 2 win year from him in year 4.

The fear was that you would get a -2 win year from him in year 4.

[gmelson26]

Wot?

The fear wasn't that you would get a 2 win year from him in year 4.

The fear was that you would get a -2 win year from him in year 4.

I guess.. that's not where my fear took me. I guess that part of why I was ok with it. I understood the 4th year wouldn't pay for itself.

I just felt as though the window was now. I didn't think the 12 game lead last year would hold serve. We lost pieces in addition to our direct rivals gaining quality pieces.

[Can_of_corn]

I guess.. that's not where my fear took me. I guess that part of why I was ok with it. I understood the 4th year wouldn't pay for itself.

I just felt as though the window was now. I didn't think the 12 game lead last year would hold serve. We lost pieces in addition to our direct rivals gaining quality pieces.

I'm a Mountcastle fan.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I didn't support signing Cruz then, and still don't. Of all the things DD has done that gave me cause for concern for our future under him, this was not one of them.

[Nevermore]

If we give Cruz his money' date=' we don't have it to pay for Sandoval or Ramirez. And don't say PA has the money; [b']Dan is on a budget, whether we like it or not.[/b]

If Dan is on such a tight budget, then why all of the dead money expended for players who ended up being DFA'd? I can believe that DD made a mistake or two on some of these players. But there were Everth Cabrera, Delmon Young,Travis Snider, Bud Norris. And even those who wound up being outrighted: Parmalee and Reimold. Those are 6 (six) players that the Orioles have to pay at least a pro-rated part of their salaries -- which is dead money that could have been spend on a 4th year for Cruz.

[Bahama O's Fan]

If Dan is on such a tight budget, then why all of the dead money expended for players who ended up being DFA'd? I can believe that DD made a mistake or two on some of these players. But there were Everth Cabrera, Delmon Young,Travis Snider, Bud Norris. And even those who wound up being outrighted: Parmalee and Reimold. Those are 6 (six) players that the Orioles have to pay at least a pro-rated part of their salaries -- which is dead money that could have been spend on a 4th year for Cruz.

All of the first four were expected to be contributing players, based on their past. Cabrera was expected to be able to take the utility spot from Flaherty, especially with the uncertainty health wise with Manny, Hardy and Schoop. Young was a solid player in 2014, as was Snider. Norris looked to be at least a #4 in our rotation. Parmalee and Reimold were signed as depth and when others didn't work out, Dan gave them a try.

[hoosiers]

A couple thoughts:

- early in the thread someone posted that "winning organizations" keep players like Cruz. I think it has been shown time and again that organizations can let fan favorites and players who spent their pre-FA years with the team such as Albert Pujols, Carl Crawford and many more go and still be very successful.

- IMO, winning organizations make a better effort to invest in their minor league system than our current front office. However, with Cruz in particular, this move was stunningly successful IMO. We gave up a second rounder, paid $8M and received a 4.6 WAR performance as well as a supplemental first rounder. THAT is a very, very strong set of moves - pretty much best case scenario IMO and I think our front office did very well here and, in the end, were right to let Cruz go.

- folks here claiming that signing him to a bad LTC would have been a mistake are certainly correct, or that the 2015 production from Cruz may be without much precedent, does not erase the fact that our front office did want Cruz to return to Bmore in 2015.

[bpilktree]

I said No and I will stay with no unless he can be a starting pitcher. The offense has been ok had ups and downs all season but the starting pitching minus a short stretch has been the problem all year. You have Chen pitching better then last year and the rest pitching worse or about the same. Ublado was good early but awful lately, Tilman Aful early and gret now. Gonzo was good early and awful not. Gausman was up and down both pitching wise and in the rotation. Norris was just awful. This team was thought to use the starting pitching to compete this season and going into the season we were considered to have the best pitching in the A.L East by about everyone.

[Frobby]

Hopefully Drungo will come by and repost it, but somewhere he posted Cruz's historical comps and what he's doing right now is pretty close to unprecedented: for a guy with his career numbers, injury history, age, and offensive profile. You're right about it being common when players happen to have better seasons at 34 than 33. What's not common is for a pretty good outfielder/DH with an injury history to all the sudden become one of the premier hitters in baseball in his mid thirties. By the end of this year, he's going to have had about ~9 WAR over the past two seasons. Before 2014, he was at about ~14 WAR for his entire career. This is pretty unusual.

I think Cruz' injury history is overblown, as he was completely healthy for all of 2012-14 (but served a 50-game suspension in 2013). I wouldn't have felt that he was any more injury-prone than any other 34-year old player. I don't feel that a 30 HR, .800+ OPS season from Cruz was particularly unexpected in 2015. But nobody could have expected the monster season he's having, particularly while playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco.