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The Great Mariner Season Over/Under


crawdad

How many games will the Mariners win?  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. How many games will the Mariners win?

    • Over 85 wins
      6
    • Push 85 wins
      2
    • Under 85 wins
      5


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People seem to argue over how good the Mariners will be.

I'll call the over/under at 85. Basically, we are saying if they will be relevant. The composite 2008 rankings that I posted a link to on the Orioles forum places the Mariners at 77 wins +/- 7 wins.

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95 wins? I don't know about that. If they finished with 95 wins that would be more than 2 standard deviations away from the models. I am not aware of any team doing that in the past three years. 3-4 typically bust 1 standard deviation. Ignoring the models . . . they are getting older and their offensive components are all on the wrong side of 40 and have shown declines in performance. People say that Bedard adds 7 or so wins to that team, but that assumes that Miguel Batista keeps pitching his improbably self and that they make up for the loss of offense in the outfield.

I think they flop.

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The M's record last year was lucky if you consider the pythag theorem.

But they added Bedard and Silva is a decent back end starter...I think Sexson bounces back some this year as well.

Clement and WLad could end up having an impact as well.

And now with the Angels pitching hurting and Oak and Tex not being all that great, they are looking pretty good.

I say they win somewhere between 90-95 games.

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I just have a hard time seeing them win 90 games. This is a team that employs Jose Vidro as a DH. That is sad. Ok, let's roll through:

C . . . Kenji Johjima . . . age 32 season . . . In his 30 and 31 seasons he has hit a 100 ops. That is a solid offensive catcher, but it is contact oriented. His age and style of offense suggests a slight regression.

1B . . . Richie Sexson . . . age 33 season . . . He was arguably the worst 1B in the league as his offense and defense floundered. He was plagued by an incredibly unlucky BABIP, but has also suffered regressed in his power and line drive percentage the past four years. They are signs your power is going away.

2B . . . Jose Lopez . . . age 24 . . . He might be the worst offensive 2B in the game.

3B . . . Adrian Beltre . . . age 29 . . . He is about league average if not slightly below average offensively as a 3B. He should be about the same.

LF . . . Raul Ibanez . . . age 36 . . . No defense. He also exhibits average offense for a LF. He should see a regression on that.

CF . . . Ichiro . . . 34 . . . Good defense and very good offense as a CF. He is solid and really the only hitter in the Mariners offense that exhibits production at a significantly higher level than the league average (Johjima's defense hurts him enough to make him an average catcher).

RF . . . Brad Wilkerson? . . . 31 . . . He struggled hitting in Arlington. That isn't a good sign. He has also been chronically injured, which has affected his performance. Can you really trust he can keep it going. They will miss Guillien.

DH . . . Jose Vidro . . . 33 . . . This is pretty sad. Having a guy like Vidro as your DH will not work for a competitive AL team.

Look at that offense. Look at offenses on other teams that are competitive. Look at that offense in comparison to the Blue Jays. The Mariners are weak there. Very weak. They need Barry.

Pitching isn't much better. The Mariners have no SP depth. Miguel Batista enters his age 37 year after going 16-11 with a 101ERA+. That won't happen again. Jarod Washburn is also a 100ERA+ pitcher. Felix is solid, but has thrown quite a few innings at a very young age. He should be expected to be around a 110ERA+. He has been far more hype than actual production, but he always has the chance for breaking out. Carlos Silva is another 100ERA+ type of guy. Bedard is an ace. So, they have a shoddy offense and a starting rotation of a 1, a 2, a couple 3s, and a 4. That is a good rotation, but not good enough.

A 90 win team needs more than this.

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