What went wrong: Inconsistent Orioles offense lacking in versatility

[scOtt]

Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching.

[OsEatAlEast]

Now that I look at the stats it's almost uncanny how much this mirrors the 1997 and 1998 teams. Win the division, lose to an AL Central team that didn't even win 90 games. Then come back the next season and score about the same amount of runs and have the pitching tank.

All in an El Nino year to boot. The last El Nino you ask? 1998! History does indeed repeat itself.

[Going Underground]

I was just looking at this on baseball reference. Our OBP is down by .06. But the offense is on par with last year without Cruz and Markakis. If the pitching had held up their end of the bargain we would be in the playoffs this year. All of you people bemoaning the loss of Cruz and Markakis please read this. If we would have just pitched to an ERA of 3.7ish we would have been fine.

The hitting was very hot and cold.Pitching was terrible but the hitting was inconsistent. Buck and Coolbaugh even said the hitting approach was bad.Buck even said he gave the least signs ,he ever has.

[wildcard]

The hitting was very hot and cold.Pitching was terrible but the hitting was inconsistent. Buck and Coolbaugh even said the hitting approach was bad.Buck even said he gave the least signs ,he ever has.

What does that mean? If the O's scored 4 runs about as many times this year as they did last year they gave the team the opportunity to be a playoff team. But if the pitching gave up about a run a game more this year than last so that 4 runs didn't produce wins often enough.

Inconsistent or not the O's scored enough runs in enough games to be a playoff team if the pitching had produced.

[Three Run Homer]

The offense should have been better this year than last year, given the enormous increases in production from Machado and Davis. Instead they wound up no better than last year, because Machado and Davis' great seasons were offset by horrible production from SS (Hardy was hurt, nothing could have been done), corner outfield and DH (losing Cruz and Markakis, regression by Pearce and Delmon Young and awful production from everyone else that Duquette brought in to replace Cruz and Markakis).

Yes, the O's would have won more games with better pitching this season, but they also would have won more games if they scored more runs. The difference is that the failures at LF, RF and DH are easier to attribute to poor front office decisions than the failures in the rotation, which were due to off-seasons from previously reliable performers like Norris, Tillman and Gonzales.

[wildcard]

The offense should have been better this year than last year, given the enormous increases in production from Machado and Davis. Instead they wound up no better than last year, because Machado and Davis' great seasons were offset by horrible production from SS (Hardy was hurt, nothing could have been done), corner outfield and DH (losing Cruz and Markakis, regression by Pearce and Delmon Young and awful production from everyone else that Duquette brought in to replace Cruz and Markakis).

Yes, the O's would have won more games with better pitching this season, but they also would have won more games if they scored more runs. The difference is that the failures at LF, RF and DH are easier to attribute to poor front office decisions than the failures in the rotation, which were due to off-seasons from previously reliable performers like Norris, Tillman and Gonzales.

I agree with your post. However, I find it hard to blame the offense for the losing season when they scored as many runs as last year while the O's pitching allowed almost 100 runs more than last year. The regression of the pitching sticks out like a sore thumb IMO.

[Nevermore]

I agree with your post. However, I find it hard to blame the offense for the losing season when they scored as many runs as last year while the O's pitching allowed almost 100 runs more than last year. The regression of the pitching sticks out like a sore thumb IMO.

This year's offense scored just about as many runs as last year. However, the offense was streaky. There were a couple of games where they scored something like 18 runs in one game. Then in August, there were too many games where they scored less than 3 runs per game.

The streakiness of the offense plus some of the starting pitching both stuck out like sore thumbs.

[scOtt]

I agree with your post. However, I find it hard to blame the offense for the losing season when they scored as many runs as last year while the O's pitching allowed almost 100 runs more than last year. The regression of the pitching sticks out like a sore thumb IMO.

All this. Like I said at the top of the page...

[wildcard]

This year's offense scored just about as many runs as last year. However, the offense was streaky. There were a couple of games where they scored something like 18 runs in one game. Then in August, there were too many games where they scored less than 3 runs per game.

The streakiness of the offense plus some of the starting pitching both stuck out like sore thumbs.

Streaky has the offense may have been, the O's scored 4 runs per game is about as many games as they did in 2014 when the won the division title. To me that means they should have won as many games when the offense is considered. The pitching allowed almost a run more per game in 2015 then they did in 2014. That was the reason the O's lost more games.

[Frobby]

I agree with your post. However, I find it hard to blame the offense for the losing season when they scored as many runs as last year while the O's pitching allowed almost 100 runs more than last year. The regression of the pitching sticks out like a sore thumb IMO.

I was planning on doing a slightly more detailed post when the season is 100% done, but for now I'll just point out that last year, the Orioles' 4.35 runs a game was 6th in the league and .17 over the league average, whereas this year's 4.35 is 8th in the league and .03 under the league average. The average team will score about 32 runs more this season (and correlatively, the average team is allowing 32 runs more). So, relative to the average team, the Orioles' flat offensive performance is -32, and allowing 100 runs more would be -68 (compared to how the O's did vs. league average last year). That means the pitching is more to blame, but that the offense is far from blameless.

[JR Oriole]

Now that I look at the stats it's almost uncanny how much this mirrors the 1997 and 1998 teams. Win the division, lose to an AL Central team that didn't even win 90 games. Then come back the next season and score about the same amount of runs and have the pitching tank.

All in an El Nino year to boot. The last El Nino you ask? 1998! History does indeed repeat itself.

This was my exact fear when Grissom (I mean, Gordon) hit a series changing bomb in Camden Yards in the ALCS. We never recovered from that, but it was somewhat gratifying to see the Indians (I mean, Royals) lose the 7th game of the World Series by a score of 3-2. Of course, the 1998 Orioles went 79-83. We are currently 77-82, so taking 2 of 3 from New York will put us at....79-83. Yikes! Fortunately, we are well prepared to manage another 13 years of awfulness since we proved we could handle it before. And at least we can watch Arrieta dominate the playoffs and pretend that our organization knows what it is doing with pitcher development. Who needs the winning Power Ball ticket when you can just mail it to someone in Chicago and let them collect the winnings.

[JR Oriole]

This was my exact fear when Grissom (I mean, Gordon) hit a series changing bomb in Camden Yards in the ALCS. We never recovered from that, but it was somewhat gratifying to see the Indians (I mean, Royals) lose the 7th game of the World Series by a score of 3-2. Of course, the 1998 Orioles went 79-83. We are currently 77-82, so taking 2 of 3 from New York will put us at....79-83. Yikes! Fortunately, we are well prepared to manage another 13 years of awfulness since we proved we could handle it before. And at least we can watch Arrieta dominate the playoffs and pretend that our organization knows what it is doing with pitcher development. Who needs the winning Power Ball ticket when you can just mail it to someone in Chicago and let them collect the winnings.

My bad! At 78-81, we just have to go 1-2 against NY to clinch the 1998 record. Of course, I don't know that we will get all 3 games in this weekend.

[wildcard]

I was planning on doing a slightly more detailed post when the season is 100% done, but for now I'll just point out that last year, the Orioles' 4.35 runs a game was 6th in the league and .17 over the league average, whereas this year's 4.35 is 8th in the league and .03 under the league average. The average team will score about 32 runs more this season (and correlatively, the average team is allowing 32 runs more). So, relative to the average team, the Orioles' flat offensive performance is -32, and allowing 100 runs more would be -68 (compared to how the O's did vs. league average last year). That means the pitching is more to blame, but that the offense is far from blameless.

This is an important point. I said a major factor was that the Blue Jays and Yankees were better offensively in 2015 because I was looking at the division. But in fact the whole league was more offensive in 2015. I think the Jays skew that average a bit because they will score probably 125 more runs than the best AL team last year.

[Frobby]

This is an important point. I said a major factor was that the Blue Jays and Yankees were better offensively in 2015 because I was looking at the division. But in fact the whole league was more offensive in 2015. I think the Jays skew that average a bit because they will score probably 125 more runs than the best AL team last year.

And we certainly helped the Blue Jays to skew that average, allowing 118 runs against them in 19 games (6.21 runs/game). It's a miracle that we went 8-11 against them. Of course, we did pretty well against their pitching as well (102 runs, 5.37 per game).

[Going Underground]

Now the pi9tcng:

Manager Buck Showalter uses a favorite adage when asked to gauge the Orioles' momentum — it's only as good as the next day's starting pitcher.

That was true last season, when the Orioles rotation posted a remarkable 2.98 ERA after the All-Star break, emerging as the biggest strength down the stretch as the club won its first division title in 17 years. But as the Orioles failed to meet high expectations this season, the dramatic decline of the team's starting pitchers might be the biggest disappointment in 2015.

"We haven't finished off some hitters in [favorable] counts like we did last year, with the same people and the same leadership," Showalter said. "It's not from a lack of trying. … Trying to figure out pitching is the riddle that everyone does. Everybody tries to develop this system where they have this many of innings or something like that. There's no solution to the riddle. You're always trying to figure out."

Pitching coach Dave Wallace, who is in his second season with the Orioles, made two points: The starters failed to consistently get deep into games, and they fell victim to the big inning too often. That is illustrated by the Orioles' quality-start percentage (.440), which entered Friday ranked 23rd in baseball and 13th among 15 American League teams.

However, the rotation's decline can't be pinned on Norris alone. Orioles starters went into Friday with a 4.98 ERA in the second half of the season — well after Norris lost his rotation spot — compared with a 4.20 mark in the first half with Norris included. Opposing batters had hit .274 against the Orioles starters in the second half, 37 points higher than after the break last season.

Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen has been the club's most consistent starter with 19 quality starts in his first 30 outings (63.3 percent), but right-handers Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez battled with consistency, especially in the first half of the year. Tillman and Gonzalez both battled physical ailments in the second half.

Tillman, who was coming off back-to-back 200-inning seasons and won 29 games in that span, struggled to overcome an ankle injury he suffered in late July, posting a 6.50 ERA after that setback. But Wallace said Tillman pitched much better than indicated.

"There's a lot of things that happen during the course of games — swinging base hits, ground balls through the hole, bloopers that fall in, then one big pop," Wallace said. "I think [Tillman is] the guy who the perception is his year wasn't quite as good as last year. And it probably wasn't quite, but he's probably the guy most affected by public perception. I think he really pitched better than it appears."

One scout said the Orioles' problem is that they don't have legitimate front-line starters, a case that has been made consistently dating to Mike Mussina's departure after the 2000 season.

"Really, there's no legitimate stopper," said one National League scout who followed the Orioles this season. "There's no legitimate No. 1 or 2; more 3s, 4s and 5s. Every night they have to go out there and battle when they're facing the opponent's No. 1s and 2s when you're throwing 3s, 4s and 5s."

Statistically, the Orioles bullpen has performed close to the same level as last season. Plus, setup man Darren O'Day and closer Zach Britton both enjoyed All-S

tar seasons. The relievers' ERA entered Friday just a tad higher (3.23) than in 2014 (3.10), ranking fourth in the AL this season after finishing third a year ago.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-what-went-wrong-pitching-1003-20151002-story.html