Trumbo an Oriole (For Clevenger Done Deal)

[SteveO]

Please find the post where I said I would give Wieters the QO? Stop saying we all said. It's not after the fact analysis for me. I would not have given him a QO and was surprised that they did. After seeing the Orioles gave Wieters the QO, my assessment at the time was that the Orioles probably had a behind the scenes agreement with Wieters or felt like they had on good order he would not accept. After he accepted, I said immediately that this was not a good deal for the Orioles and have stood my ground despite other disagreeing.

I have no issues with people that are ok with giving him the QO or even the people who think Wieters accepting was a good thing for the team, I just happen to disagree.

Your right to disagree.

Having to spend 15.8 million on guy who fills a role that you already had competent players at when you have your best players hitting the free agent market and a gazillion holes on your team is just not a good thing.

MW is a guy who you could argue would be worth paying that much if you had no catcher who could competently get the job done. We did and as such its resources wasted that could be spent elsewhere. Some of the points that the Orange Pom Pom wavers bring up to defend this as somehow a good thing are borderline absurd.

I was convinced that MW would not accept the QO, from that standpoint I am not gonna rag to much on DD for offering it, saying its good he accepted it though, that is absolutely goofy talk when you look at the rotation we are sporting and the lineup we currently feature when you subtract CD from the mix.

So yea Tony, I think your being kind when you say you have no problem with people who think its a good thing that MW took the QO.

[SteveO]

You think there is 8 WAR in that group?

Matt Wieters 0.6, 0.7, 0.8

Ubaldo 2.7, 0.5, 2.6

JJ Hardy 3.9, 3.3, 0.0

Trumbo -1.1, 0.8, 0.8

That is the WAR for all three players the past three years. There has not been a single year in which those 4 guys accounted for close to 8 WAR.

I am sorry but your trying to build a winner, trading for a guy who makes 9 million and has put up A TOTAL OF 0.5 WAR combined over the past 3 years with minimal upside is just not how you build a winning team.

I see all the time how posters want to go on and on about how the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Blowsoxs and others are wasting their money and gonna pay for signing big names to big deals. I agree to some extent, that said, I would rather waste 25 million on ONE good player and take hit on the back end then waste money on a near yearly basis on guys whose numbers prove they are marginal players at best

Its always possible that you get lucky Trumbo has a great year, JJ rebounds and Ubaldo replicates last season, MW rebounds. That is a stretch, its far more likely that we get something along the lines of the average over the past 3 years .....maybe 4-5 WAR. Not good IMO

[sportsfan8703]

We're counting on rebound offensive years from Trumbo, Hardy and MW.

[SteveO]

Kinda like Boston and Panda and Hanley? Yankees and CC and A-Rod?

That is always the answer right? Point to deals that do not work out?

Hanley and Panda were desperation signings by a GM trying to save his ass for a franchise that can still afford to write Price a 200+ million dollar check even after squandering that money. A-Roid and CC were part of a pretty successful Yankees team that kicked the living hell out our team forever. Besides the Yanks knew they would be overpaying on the backend of those deals.

You comparing apples and oranges Weams and your smart enough to know that. Us wasting money on marginal players is far more devastating to our franchise than BOTH the Ramirez and Panda signings even if they never batted again for the Red Sox and still got paid. Its really that simple. They can afford to make mistakes, we cant.

[SteveO]

Question: what does Wieters have to do this season to be worth $15.8 mil?

Be traded at the All Star break for a decent prospect OR have a season unlike any he has had since circa 2012.

At the end of the day though, there is nothing he can do that will eclipse what we would have gotten from CJ and whomever our 15.8 million AAV would buy us IMO. If we trade him its because we suck, if we suck its likely in part because we are wasting 15 million on a position we had covered while signing and bringing in marginal guys to cover positions of need.

[Stotle]

Be traded at the All Star break for a decent prospect OR have a season unlike any he has had since circa 2012.

At the end of the day though, there is nothing he can do that will eclipse what we would have gotten from CJ and whomever our 15.8 million AAV would buy us IMO. If we trade him its because we suck, if we suck its likely in part because we are wasting 15 million on a position we had covered while signing and bringing in marginal guys to cover positions of need.

How does this make any sense? The $15.8 million going to Wieters wouldn't even get you in the ballpark for Davis alone. How on earth is it preventing Baltimore from acquiring Davis and others??

[SteveO]

How does this make any sense? The $15.8 million going to Wieters wouldn't even get you in the ballpark for Davis alone. How on earth is it preventing Baltimore from acquiring Davis and others??

What are you talking about?

Never said anything about Davis. Said CJ (Caleb Joseph) and whomever they signed with the payroll (15.8) would provide more to this team than having CJ and MW

[Stotle]

What are you talking about?

Never said anything about Davis. Said CJ (Caleb Joseph) and whomever they signed with the payroll (15.8) would provide more to this team than having CJ and MW

Oops. Completely my fault. I read CD. I apologize.

As for CJ + whomever, I think Wieters has a chance of outperforming a "whomever" that could be had for $15.8 MM AAV. Definitely not a given. Might turn out that Wieters is a train wreck for Baltimore in 2016, sure.

[DrungoHazewood]

So between Trumbo, Hardy, MW and Ubaldo, you have around 50 million in payroll tied up in guys who are frankly kinda of meh players. Spending that much on players who do not move the needle much is not a great recipe to win IMO.

I'd guess that almost every team has more than 20% of their payroll in very poor $/win contracts. And many at 50% or more. The only way to avoid that is to avoid free agent (and a fair % of arb players).

[DrungoHazewood]

Question: what does Wieters have to do this season to be worth $15.8 mil?

To meet the standard going rate for free agents, about two wins. But that leaves unanswered the question of whether the O's could have more effeciently utilized the money in ways that exceeded two wins.

[SteveO]

Oops. Completely my fault. I read CD. I apologize.

As for CJ + whomever, I think Wieters has a chance of outperforming a "whomever" that could be had for $15.8 MM AAV. Definitely not a given. Might turn out that Wieters is a train wreck for Baltimore in 2016, sure.

A chance sure, his last full time year though he put up a WAR of less than 1.0 (2013).

Caleb Joseph has put up WAR of 1.2 and 2.2 the past two years. There is nothing sexy about he guy but he gets the job done credibly.

Given the choice and number of holes this team has and it's apparent limits in terms of resources, its a horrible waste of resources to spend 15+ million on a guy who fills a position that you could reasonably guess might give you 1.5 WAR at minimum salary.

Could it work out? Sure, it could also turn out that we pay MW 15.8 million and end up getting barely more than we could from CJ at league minimum. I would take a pitcher we could get at 15 million AAV with Joseph over having MW and Caleb both here any day.

[SteveO]

To meet the standard going rate for free agents, about two wins. But that leaves unanswered the question of whether the O's could have more effeciently utilized the money in ways that exceeded two wins.

That is really not a good way to look at it IMO. Last year Caleb Joseph put up 2.2 WAR for league minimum salary.

Even if you believe that was CJ's best, he is likely gonna give you close to 1.5 WAR for peanuts. How is paying 15.8 million for a guy who has not even approached 2.0 WAR since 2012 a good idea?

If the Orioles signed any other catcher not named MW who profiled exactly the same as MW does while they have all these holes to fill, nobody would have defended that. Regardless if you feel that offering him was the right choice or not, his accepting it is not the best news.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Wouldn't have to put up 2WAR more than Joseph probably would have to be worth it? I was all for the QO, because I never thought he would take it, but now that it's done, so be it.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Wouldn't have to put up 2WAR more than Joseph probably would have to be worth it? I was all for the QO' date=' because I never thought he would take it, but now that it's done, so be it.[/quote']

Sorry, would have to

[srock]

What are you talking about?

Never said anything about Davis. Said CJ (Caleb Joseph) and whomever they signed with the payroll (15.8) would provide more to this team than having CJ and MW

This is presumptuous at best. 'Whomever' will want a multi year. How to you really compare $15.8 million for one year to any contracts which will most likely be 2-5 year affairs and possible cost a draft pick?

Take it a step further, Trumbo at $9.1 million means Wieters, Joseph, and Trumbo are eating up $24.9 million in 2016. Versus Joseph and Clevenger for peanuts.

That does cover signing Chris Davis. For ONE year.

Chris Davis is about long term commitment, using up resources for many years.