Is Smoak Really #4 Worthy?

[LookinUp]

See these stats, from the South Carolina Baseball page:

http://gamecocksonline.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamcume.html

Player AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%

6 Reese Havens..... .376 125 36 47 5 1 10 38 84 .672 28 18 0 .49795 4 .972

12 Justin Smoak..... .345 113 28 39 9 0 8 26 72 .637 32 19 2 .49316 1 .997

4 James Darnell.... .321 134 28 43 6 0 10 41 79 .590 16 23 0 .386 61 8 .904

The numbers are certainly impressive, but according to the stats only, he's equal at best to two other players on his own team. The only very nice difference is his FLD%. This just doesn't scream "special" or "elite" to me. In a draft with Alvarez, Beckham, Crow, Matusz and Hosmer, I think I should get an elite player at #4.

Am I basing this on too narrow of evidence?

[Mackus]

Stats really aren't the best thing to look at for the draft. Scouting reports are far, far more valuable.

Bad stats are a bad thing, but great stats aren't necessarily a good thing when it comes to college players and even moreso for high school players.

From everything I've read about him, he's worthy of that pick. But there are a solid handful to eight players that could be available with that pick that would be worthwhile players.

Personally I'd be thrilled with any of Alvarez, Hosmer, Smoak, or Beckham. I don't want to draft a pitcher that early, think we need the bat.

[Greg Pappas]

See these stats, from the South Carolina Baseball page:

http://gamecocksonline.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamcume.html

Player AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%

6 Reese Havens..... .376 125 36 47 5 1 10 38 84 .672 28 18 0 .49795 4 .972

12 Justin Smoak..... .345 113 28 39 9 0 8 26 72 .637 32 19 2 .49316 1 .997

4 James Darnell.... .321 134 28 43 6 0 10 41 79 .590 16 23 0 .386 61 8 .904

The numbers are certainly impressive, but according to the stats only, he's equal at best to two other players on his own team. The only very nice difference is his FLD%. This just doesn't scream "special" or "elite" to me. In a draft with Alvarez, Beckham, Crow, Matusz and Hosmer, I think I should get an elite player at #4.

Am I basing this on too narrow of evidence?

Smoak plays on a team with two other players that should be gone within the first 50 picks or so, but regardless, he is a bit down at the moment yet should rebound just fine.

He is worthy at #4.

[Hutman]

Smoak plays on a team with two other players that should be gone within the first 50 picks or so, but regardless, he is a bit down at the moment yet should rebound just fine.

He is worthy at #4.

So Greg at this point in the season who do you rate higher Smoak or Hosmer? Seems like you have Hosmer slightly higher then Smoak. Handicap the choice between those 2.

[LookinUp]

Maybe I should frame this in another way. Let's assume that Alvarez, Beckham and Crow go in the top 3 picks (for argument's sake). If that happens, is Smoak worth taking over a Hosmer or a Matusz? Based on his up and down year so far, I'd say the answer is likely no.

I'd bet that we'll go with Matusz if this situation unfolds; that would certainly make me happy.

[Stotle]

See these stats, from the South Carolina Baseball page:

http://gamecocksonline.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamcume.html

Player AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%

6 Reese Havens..... .376 125 36 47 5 1 10 38 84 .672 28 18 0 .49795 4 .972

12 Justin Smoak..... .345 113 28 39 9 0 8 26 72 .637 32 19 2 .49316 1 .997

4 James Darnell.... .321 134 28 43 6 0 10 41 79 .590 16 23 0 .386 61 8 .904

The numbers are certainly impressive, but according to the stats only, he's equal at best to two other players on his own team. The only very nice difference is his FLD%. This just doesn't scream "special" or "elite" to me. In a draft with Alvarez, Beckham, Crow, Matusz and Hosmer, I think I should get an elite player at #4.

Am I basing this on too narrow of evidence?

I can't see ranking Smoak at #4. Just my opinion, but Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz, Crowe should be off the board first, and you could argue that Alonso should as well (his D is awful, but if Prince Fielder can hold down 1b in the NL, you can do a lot worse than an elite bat in the AL at 1b/dh). I like Smoak a lot, but I think he is a 6-10 guy in the draft, not top 5. Obviously, when your talking about these sorts of distinctions, it really isn't a big drop-off from 1-5 to 6-10.

[Greg Pappas]

So Greg at this point in the season who do you rate higher Smoak or Hosmer? Seems like you have Hosmer slightly higher then Smoak. Handicap the choice between those 2.

Hosmer has been my personal #1 rated player before the season started, so I would take him by a hair over Smoak.

The differences are evident...

Hosmer is an 18 year old HS kid, whereas Smoak is a 21 year old collegian.

Hosmer rates as a plus defender, so he may be a bit better defenively, but Smoak is good around the bag as well.

Hosmer employs a potent lefty bat, while Smoak is a strong switch-hitter.

I expect Hosmer to be a .300+ BA hitter, while Smoak should be .285-.300.

Power wise, Hosmer may, again, may have an edge in projecting to the pro's.

Just my view, but edge to Eric Hosmer.

[wayne25]

Hosmer has been my personal #1 rated player before the season started, so I would take him by a hair over Smoak.

The differences are evident...

Hosmer is an 18 year old HS kid, whereas Smoak is a 21 year old collegian.

Hosmer rates as a plus defender, so he may be a bit better defenively, but Smoak is good around the bag as well.

Hosmer employs a potent lefty bat, while Smoak is a strong switch-hitter.

I expect Hosmer to be a .300+ BA hitter, while Smoak should be .285-.300.

Power wise, Hosmer may, again, may have an edge in projecting to the pro's.

Just my view, but edge to Eric Hosmer.

Hosmer ,at this point, by alot over Smoak. That being said, I was a Smoak fan coming into the year, but He isn't doing great this year, and he was BAD in the cape in 2007, so he is slipping!

[rhall]

Hosmer ,at this point, by alot over Smoak. That being said, I was a Smoak fan coming into the year, but He isn't doing great this year, and he was BAD in the cape in 2007, so he is slipping!

I thought he had done well at the Cape but played poorly for Team USA. Can anyone confirm or deny this?

[hoosiers]

This thread is a good question.

Recent comments at BA hint the answer is no - that Smoak has not been off-the-charts impressive and that Crow, Matusz, Alvarez and TBeck are the clear top four.

My uneducated guess is that Smoak goes something like six to ten possibly after Hosmer and Beckworth.

[Greg Pappas]

This thread is a good question.

Recent comments at BA hint the answer is no - that Smoak has not been off-the-charts impressive and that Crow, Matusz, Alvarez and TBeck are the clear top four.

My uneducated guess is that Smoak goes something like six to ten possibly after Hosmer and Beckworth.

Skipworth, I assume, is who you meant. One never knows where these guys will end up, but Smoak at 6-10 is certainly possible.