The 2016 Offensive Projections Thread

[Frobby]

Here's the start of my annual chart of OPS projections from various sources. The projected plate appearances are mine. For Kim, only RotoChamp has made a projection, so far as I know (.727); I just plugged in .700 for the other sources. Bill James did not make a projection for Urrutia or Paredes, so I used the average of the other sources. The "others" projection of .651 comes from me.

Player 	PA	BJames	Shandl	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champDavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641Urrutia	100	0.664	0.646	0.656	0.724	0.695	0.596Paredes	200	0.668	0.629	0.671	0.667	0.704	0.668Kim	450	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.727Others	800	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.739	0.733	0.741	0.723	0.735	0.725

Note: last year's team OPS was .728. The one thing I find most notable is that all sources expect a big drop from Schoop, who had a .788 OPS last season.

[Number5]

Here's the start of my annual chart of OPS projections from various sources. The projected plate appearances are mine. For Kim, only RotoChamp has made a projection, so far as I know (.727); I just plugged in .700 for the other sources. Bill James did not make a projection for Urrutia or Paredes, so I used the average of the other sources. The "others" projection of .651 comes from me.

Player 	PA	BJames	Shandl	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champDavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641Urrutia	100	0.664	0.646	0.656	0.724	0.695	0.596Paredes	200	0.668	0.629	0.671	0.667	0.704	0.668Kim	450	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.727Others	800	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.739	0.733	0.741	0.723	0.735	0.725

Note: last year's team OPS was .734. The one thing I find most notable is that all sources expect a big drop from Schoop, who had a .788 OPS last season.

Thanks, Frobby. I appreciate your doing this.

Just curious on how you arrived at .701 for Kim. Rotochamp appears to be consistently on the low end of the projections for almost every other Oriole, why do you think they are very high for Kim?

[Frobby]

Thanks, Frobby. I appreciate your doing this.

Just curious on how you arrived at .701 for Kim. Rotochamp appears to be consistently on the low end of the projections for almost every other Oriole, why do you think they are very high for Kim?

Totally a guess, and I preferred to be on the conservative side. I picked .701 instead of .700 because I never learned how to get Excel not to drop a 0 when it's the last decimal.

[25 Nuggets]

Totally a guess, and I preferred to be on the conservative side. I picked .701 instead of .700 because I never learned how to get Excel not to drop a 0 when it's the last decimal.

It's under "format cells" - you can can change the number of decimals shown there.

http://www.excel-easy.com/basics/format-cells.html

[Number5]

Totally a guess, and I preferred to be on the conservative side. I picked .701 instead of .700 because I never learned how to get Excel not to drop a 0 when it's the last decimal.

Well, I hope you are wrong on that. It is certainly possible that we find out that he can't hit MLB pitching, but my guess is that if Kim does that poorly, he won't get 450 ABs.

[Frobby]

Well, I hope you are wrong on that. It is certainly possible that we find out that he can't hit MLB pitching, but my guess is that if Kim does that poorly, he won't get 450 ABs.

Considering the projections for Reimold, Urrutia and "other," I'm not sure that giving more at bats to the other alternatives would be wise even if Kim is only at .700. Don't forget that last year we gave 910 PA to Snider (.659), Parra (.625), Young (.628), Lough (.555) and De Aza (.636). But I certainly hope that either Kim does better than I guessed or somebody else does and grabs the playing time. Personally, I think Reimold could be a pleasant surprise.

[survivedc]

I'm surprised at how low Machado's projections are. I mean none of them even match his OPS from last year, and barring injury I expect him to improve a bit. I think he's pretty capable of a 900 OPS season. I think he became a lot less selective in the second half last year, before correcting that towards the end of the season. Also think he will benefit from hitting 3rd, which I hope he will do this year.

[25 Nuggets]

I'm surprised at how low Machado's projections are. I mean none of them even match his OPS from last year, and barring injury I expect him to improve a bit. I think he's pretty capable of a 900 OPS season. I think he became a lot less selective in the second half last year, before correcting that towards the end of the season. Also think he will benefit from hitting 3rd, which I hope he will do this year.

It's a natural part of their regression when a player has a career year offensively, regardless of that player's age. Actually, it's probably because Machado is so young that the James and ZiPS projections are so close to his 2015 number. I wouldn't be too worried.

[Number5]

Considering the projections for Reimold, Urrutia and "other," I'm not sure that giving more at bats to the other alternatives would be wise even if Kim is only at .700. Don't forget that last year we gave 910 PA to Snider (.659), Parra (.625), Young (.628), Lough (.555) and De Aza (.636). But I certainly hope that either Kim does better than I guessed or somebody else does and grabs the playing time. Personally, I think Reimold could be a pleasant surprise.

I hear what you are saying, but my understanding is that Kim was signed for his hit tool. His defense is hoped to be MLB average, or at least adequate. If he doesn't hit, I really don't think he plays. JMO.

[twinedenter]

I hear what you are saying, but my understanding is that Kim was signed for his hit tool. His defense is hoped to be MLB average, or at least adequate. If he doesn't hit, I really don't think he plays. JMO.

He'd better hit. He is Duquette's latest attempt at magic for our outfield. Same sad story as last season. Yet he is called capable by some.

I suspect Kim will struggle early and begin to figure it out as the season rolls on. There is certainly going to be unfair expectations for him to be a legit #2 outfielder. Whether he can fill those shoes, we shall all find out.

[BohKnowsBmore]

It's a natural part of their regression when a player has a career year offensively, regardless of that player's age. Actually, it's probably because Machado is so young that the James and ZiPS projections are so close to his 2015 number. I wouldn't be too worried.

This makes sense in the context of the schoop projections as well. You can't draw a straight line hitting his 2014 and 2015 OPS numbers to predict a .950 in 2016. His career average is inherently low due to his .2014 performance.

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[BohKnowsBmore]

He'd better hit. He is Duquette's latest attempt at magic for our outfield. Same sad story as last season. Yet he is called capable by some.

I suspect Kim will struggle early and begin to figure it out as the season rolls on. There is certainly going to be unfair expectations for him to be a legit #2 outfielder. Whether he can fill those shoes, we shall all find out.

What do you mean by "#2 outfielder?"

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[Beef Supreme]

Here's the start of my annual chart of OPS projections from various sources. The projected plate appearances are mine. For Kim, only RotoChamp has made a projection, so far as I know (.727); I just plugged in .700 for the other sources. Bill James did not make a projection for Urrutia or Paredes, so I used the average of the other sources. The "others" projection of .651 comes from me.

Player 	PA	BJames	Shandl	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champDavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641Urrutia	100	0.664	0.646	0.656	0.724	0.695	0.596Paredes	200	0.668	0.629	0.671	0.667	0.704	0.668Kim	450	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.727Others	800	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.739	0.733	0.741	0.723	0.735	0.725

Note: last year's team OPS was .734. The one thing I find most notable is that all sources expect a big drop from Schoop, who had a .788 OPS last season.

Therein lays the downside of projections. They would have projected extreme regression for Robin Yount, following his 1977 season...despite him having a superior season in 1978. They would have projected extreme regression for following his 1982 season...despite him producing at around that level for seven years subsequent. Despite the projections, I could easily see Schoop performing closer to last year's stats than the projections. Players mature...and improve. Yount did. Countless others have. I hope that we shall see a consistently productive year from Schoop and am optimistic that we will. Of course, that is merely a prediction, but it is based on a reasonably projectable career path.

[weams]

Here's the start of my annual chart of OPS projections from various sources. The projected plate appearances are mine. For Kim, only RotoChamp has made a projection, so far as I know (.727); I just plugged in .700 for the other sources. Bill James did not make a projection for Urrutia or Paredes, so I used the average of the other sources. The "others" projection of .651 comes from me.

Player 	PA	BJames	Shandl	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champDavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641Urrutia	100	0.664	0.646	0.656	0.724	0.695	0.596Paredes	200	0.668	0.629	0.671	0.667	0.704	0.668Kim	450	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.701	0.727Others	800	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.739	0.733	0.741	0.723	0.735	0.725

Note: last year's team OPS was .734. The one thing I find most notable is that all sources expect a big drop from Schoop, who had a .788 OPS last season.

Thanks for this.

[Frobby]

Thanks for this.

I will add others like PECOTA as I find them, and of course make edits if we acquire another hitter who is likely to get significant playing time. If anybody would like to give me their own projections for the listed players, I will add them to the spreadsheet, too.

Bill James is always one of the most optimistic projections, but it's unusual to see ZiPS that optimistic. Last year ZiPS had us at .731, only .003 higher than actual. This year they're saying .741 (again, based on my PA assumptions, not theirs).