Is it reasonable to expect the bullpen to repeat last year's performance?

[Frobby]

2015: 30-19, 3.21 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.64 xFIP), 6.24 WPA, 43/58 saves (74.1%)

2014: 28-21, 3.10 ERA (3.55 FIP, 3.54 xFIP), 6.24 WPA, 53/72 saves (73.6%)

2013: 29-26, 3.52 ERA (3.74 FIP, 3.58 xFIP), 0.54 WPA, 57/84 saves (67.8%)

2012: 32-11, 3.00 ERA (3.68 FIP, 3.88 xFIP), 13.86 WPA, 55/73 saves (75.3%)

That is an awesome performance. Over that four year period, the Orioles bullpen has won the most games of any bullpen in MLB, has the best winning percentage, has the most saves, the 3rd best ERA, and 3rd in WPA. All while throwing the third most innings in MLB.

On its face, there seems to be little reason the O's can't have an outstanding bullpen again. The core looks to be the same as the last two years, with Givens now in the Hunter role, which potentially is an upgrade.

I do worry about this, however. First, there is almost no direction to go but down. Second, our bullpen figures to be less flexible this year, with quite a few members non-optionable. Third, our bullpen has been remarkably healthy over this four-year period.

Bottom line, I'd be really happy if we can hold serve with the bullpen performance, and can't imagine that we will be in the race if the bullpen takes a step back.

[MDtransplant757]

Yes, look whose coming back and in shape.

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[Can_of_corn]

You should never expect that level of performance.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

You should never expect that level of performance.

I don't necessarily disagree, but when that level of performance has been the norm for much of the last four years and the same group is back, if not improved, why not?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't necessarily disagree, but when that level of performance has been the norm for much of the last four years and the same group is back, if not improved, why not?

Because when performance is at either end of the curve you should expect regression to the mean. A top performing bullpen should decline and a truly horrid one should improve.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I don't know if one can say they expect the numbers themselves for the reasons CoC brings up.

That said, I see no reason to believe that they should regress in any significant way besides general rules/trends. O'Day has been the model of consistency as an Oriole. Britton has shown elite levels of dominance in a relief role with a pretty unique statistical profile that would lead one to suggest he won't follow normal models (as in he's not generic reliever X with a great season). Givens will get more innings and looks to be awesome and, as mentioned a potential improvement from Hunter.

I think you can look at the non-core guys like Brach as potential regression candidates. But even then, a guy like Matusz who had his best season as a reliever, doesn't give any indication that he should be less effective against lefties this season. Bundy as a mid-game guy to start the season also injects some upside for 2015, too.

I don't want to just say "our guys are different" in the face of evidence that bullpen success is volatile, but I do feel that we have a very good group that would suggest consistency as opposed to random arms having an "up" season.

[backwardsk]

Because when performance is at either end of the curve you should expect regression to the mean. A top performing bullpen should decline and a truly horrid one should improve.

When? After 2 years of success? After 3 years of success?

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[ReclaimTheCrown]

Because when performance is at either end of the curve you should expect regression to the mean. A top performing bullpen should decline and a truly horrid one should improve.

Sure, I understand that concept, but what if that top performing bullpen is actually just better than most other bullpens? Do the peripherals indicate the group has collectively overachieved? Otherwise, just because they've been among the best shouldn't necessarily mean that they'll return to the pack.

[InsideCoroner]

I worry about a drop-off from O'Day, but if his hip doesn't give him problems and he continues to miss bats as he did, then he could be nearly as good. I don't worry about Britton. I think Givens may prove equally dominant as these two.

The pen is the area on the team I worry about the least. The last 3 or 4 innings look good. It's the first 5 or so that worry me.

[ScottP]

If the starting pitching doesn't improve on last year's results, and Chen's loss doesn't help things (not that he was a bull out there, but he was a competent lefty), the bullpen's going to get overtaxed and, not being as flexible as in the past, it's going to be harder to swap out pitchers when they wear down/lose effectiveness.

[DrungoHazewood]

When? After 2 years of success? After 3 years of success?

You should always assume all performances are a combination of (skill + luck). The better the performance the more likey the player(s) have benefited from good fortune. Even Babe Ruth didn't hit .393 or 60 homers all the time.

[webbrick2010]

The O's will find out why you don't give 4 year contracts to 32 year olds. O'day for the next 4 years will not look anything like O'day for the past 4 years, and I expect some injury (hip, knee, groin) will trigger a pretty sudden drop off

[Redskins Rick]

At what point, can you attribute the health of the bullpen to Buck and his pitching coaches's handling?

Tony LaRussa was a well-respective manager, who knew the game and knew how to win, but the one knock on him, was that he was hard on his pitchers.

[backwardsk]

You should always assume all performances are a combination of (skill + luck). The better the performance the more likey the player(s) have benefited from good fortune. Even Babe Ruth didn't hit .393 or 60 homers all the time.

Which year did Ruth regress to the mean?

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[DrungoHazewood]

At what point, can you attribute the health of the bullpen to Buck and his pitching coaches's handling?Tony LaRussa was a well-respective manager, who knew the game and knew how to win, but the one knock on him, was that he was hard on his pitchers.

You should always assume all performances are a combination of (skill + luck). The better the performance the more likey the player(s) have benefited from good fortune. Even Cal Ripken eventually ended up on the DL.