Is it reasonable to expect the bullpen to repeat last year's performance?

[Orioles0615]

As long as Britton doesn't go full Jim Johnson I think the pen should be fine.

[Frobby]

By the way, one thing that stood out for me as I wrote the OP is how few save opportunities the O's had in 2015 compared to the other three years: 73, 84, 73, 58. You can't save the game if you're not in the lead, and we weren't in the lead often enough in 2015 when the bullpen took over. And we know why that is.

[DrungoHazewood]

Which year did Ruth regress to the mean?

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In 1922 he fell from 13.9 wins to 6.5, and missed 44 games.

In 1925 he was sick/injured for over 50 games and fell from 12.5 wins to 3.6.

His home run totals starting in 1918 were 11, 29, 54, and 59. The next year he hit 41.

In '23 he hit .393. The next two years he hit .378 and .290.

In 1929 his walks fell from 137 to 72 in only 90-some fewer PAs.

[DrungoHazewood]

By the way, one thing that stood out for me as I wrote the OP is how few save opportunities the O's had in 2015 compared to the other three years: 73, 84, 73, 58. You can't save the game if you're not in the lead, and we weren't in the lead often enough in 2015 when the bullpen took over. And we know why that is.

The combination of offense, defense, and starting pitching wasn't quite up to the standard of the previous several years?

[backwardsk]

In 1922 he fell from 13.9 wins to 6.5, and missed 44 games.

In 1925 he was sick/injured for over 50 games and fell from 12.5 wins to 3.6.

His home run totals starting in 1918 were 11, 29, 54, and 59. The next year he hit 41.

In '23 he hit .393. The next two years he hit .378 and .290.

In 1929 his walks fell from 137 to 72 in only 90-some fewer PAs.

Which of those performances was average? He had a 3.5 rWAR his worst season.

Performances fluctuate. That's not a revelation. If the Oriole bullpen's ERA+ increases, but it's still at the the top of the league, that's not regressing to the mean.

As far as this year's bullpen, if they add a fifth starter, I like their personnel better than 2015. I think Worley can be an asset when he can give you multiple innings. He can be a bridge to the seventh inning. I'm not optimistic about him going through a lineup multiple times as a starter. I would like more flexibility. I would have moved on from Matusz and used Beliveau and the Seattle/Tampa lefty. Maybe Chris Lee down the stretch.

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[Frobby]

The combination of offense, defense, and starting pitching wasn't quite up to the standard of the previous several years?

Here's an interesting series of stats:

2015

Relievers: 3.21 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.64 xFIP

Starters: 4.53 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.21 xFIP

2014

Relievers: 3.10 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.54 xFIP

Starters: 3.61 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP

This would seem to suggest that the defense behind the starting pitchers was significantly worse in 2015 than in 2014, but that the defense behind the relievers was virtually the same in 2015 as in 2014. That seems a bit hard to fathom.

[twinedenter]

The combination of offense, defense, and starting pitching wasn't quite up to the standard of the previous several years?

Starting pitching stunk and our FO attempted to replace the guy that carried us for most of 2014, with a collection of stiffs.

[DrungoHazewood]

Which of those performances was average? He had a 3.5 rWAR his worst season.

Performances fluctuate. That's not a revelation. If the Oriole bullpen's ERA+ increases, but it's still at the the top of the league, that's not regressing to the mean.

Regression to the mean doesn't mean that given enough trials everyone will be average. It means that a player's performance is a combination of luck and skill, and observed performance (over enough time) will trend toward the skill part. High observed performance levels are more likely to involve good luck.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's an interesting series of stats:

2015

Relievers: 3.21 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.64 xFIP

Starters: 4.53 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.21 xFIP

2014

Relievers: 3.10 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.54 xFIP

Starters: 3.61 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP

This would seem to suggest that the defense behind the starting pitchers was significantly worse in 2015 than in 2014, but that the defense behind the relievers was virtually the same in 2015 as in 2014. That seems a bit hard to fathom.

You can't assume that an observed performance is indicative of true talent. Things often don't even out in one year's data.

[DrungoHazewood]

Starting pitching stunk and our FO attempted to replace the guy that carried us for most of 2014, with a collection of stiffs.

That part worked. The 2015 Orioles scored eight more runs than the 2014 Orioles.

[backwardsk]

Regression to the mean doesn't mean that given enough trials everyone will be average. It means that a player's performance is a combination of luck and skill, and observed performance (over enough time) will trend toward the skill part. High observed performance levels are more likely to involve good luck.

So when is the bullpen going to not be in the top tier? That was my original question.

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[DrungoHazewood]

So when is the bullpen going to not be in the top tier? That was my original question.

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When their skill level declines and there's not enough good fortune to make up for it.

[pastorfan]

I don't necessarily disagree, but when that level of performance has been the norm for much of the last four years and the same group is back, if not improved, why not?

I think it is fair to expect it to continue. This is why they spent for O'Day. They realize they have a strength and with the starting staff they need to have a great bullpen. And if Bundy can give you an inning here or there throwing 95 then they might even be better. Imagine if we actually had a good starting staff!

[Tx Oriole]

As long as Britton doesn't go full Jim Johnson I think the pen should be fine.

I sure do hope so.

[Tx Oriole]

I think it is fair to expect it to continue. This is why they spent for O'Day. They realize they have a strength and with the starting staff they need to have a great bullpen. And if Bundy can give you an inning here or there throwing 95 then they might even be better. Imagine if we actually had a good starting staff!

I hope Bundy can do that.