Is it reasonable to expect the bullpen to repeat last year's performance?

[OFFNY]

o

 

(vs. PIRATES, 6/07)

 

Wade Miley only went 2.67 innings tonight, the game went 11 innings, and the bullpen held the fort to allow the comeback win to be possible.

The heart of the bullpen (Brach, O'Day, and Givens) is really good. They may be even better after Zach Britton returns.

 

o

[Frobby]

As I mentioned yesterday, the bullpen ERA is up significantly, but they've performed well when it's counted most.    If we can get Britton back healthy I think we can get back to elite status.    As it stands now, we are 7th in the AL in bullpen ERA but have the most bullpen wins, 4th best bullpen winning percentage, 2nd most saves, 5th best save percentage and are 3rd in win probability added.   And, our pen has pitched the most innings per game of any team in the league.   

[OFFNY]

o

 

The bullpen is yet again proving to be the strongest element of the team.

Perennially, they have been great since the Orioles' reemergence as a contender in the 2012 season.

 

o

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The bullpen is yet again proving to be the strongest element of the team.

Perennially, they have been great since the Orioles' reemergence as a contender in the 2012 season.

 

o

Well, yes and no this year.    The bullpen ERA is a pedestrian 4.19, 8th in the league.     However, they've been good at preserving leads; 22 saves is tied for 4th and 73.3% save percentage is also 4th.   They are 3rd in the league in win probability added.

Where they've been poor, of late, is keeping games reasonably close when the starter falters early.   They've been better at that in years past.     They did well towards the beginning of the season, but not for the last two months or so.   

[OFFNY]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Well, yes and no this year. The bullpen ERA is a pedestrian 4.19, 8th in the league. However, they've been good at preserving leads; 22 saves is tied for 4th and 73.3% save percentage is also 4th. They are 3rd in the league in win probability added.

Where they've been poor, of late, is keeping games reasonably close when the starter falters early. They've been better at that in years past.     They did well towards the beginning of the season, but not for the last two months or so.  

 

o

 

I suspect that part of the reason for the bullpen at-large's failures and/or pedestrian statistics this season have been due to overuse as a result of horrible starting pitching, and injuries to Britton and O'Day.

The "Big Four" of Britton, O'Day, Brach, and Givens have been (for the most part) very good. Brach had one really bad stretch earlier this season, but again, I believe that that had a lot to do with overuse because of the starting pitching failing as badly as they had, and injuries to 2 key member of the "Big 4."

 

So I believe that the bullpen overall has been better than what the raw statistics show, which includes numerous games in which they have been blown out with the bullpen's overall statistics getting bloated in said blowouts. 

 

o

[Frobby]

Just now, OFFNY said:

o

 

I suspect that part of the reason for the bullpen at-large's failures and/or pedestrian statistics this season have been due to overuse as a result of horrible starting pitching, and injuries to Britton and O'Day.

The "Big Four" of Britton, O'Day, Brach, and Givens have been (for the most part) very good. Brach had one really bad stretch earlier this season, but again, I believe that that had a lot to do with overuse because of the starting pitching failing as badly as they had, and injuries to 2 key member of the "Big 4."

 

So I believe that the bullpen overall has been better than what the raw statistics show, which includes games in which they have been blown out with the bullpen's overall statistics getting bloated in said blowouts. 

 

o

Correct.    That's why our Win Probability Added is still high.   But some of those blowouts didn't need to be blowouts.    

[Frobby]

Bump...

Despite our starting pitching woes, you could argue that we would be in wild card position right now if this year's bullpen was as good as last year's.

2016 bullpen: 32-15 (.681) 3.40 ERA, 54/68 in saves (79.4%).

2017 bullpen: 22-14 (.611), 3.97 ERA, 28/40 in saves (70%).

Applying last year's W/L% and save % to this year's opportunities, we'd have about 6 more wins than we presently do.     64-54 would have us sitting pretty in the WC race.

Now, to be fair, our bullpen has merely gone from great to good.    A .611 winning percentage is well above average, and a 70% save rate is also above average.     The 3.97 ERA is also a bit better than average.     So, it's not that our bullpen hasn't been pretty good, it just hasn't lived up to last year's standards.    But it's made a difference.    

[OFFNY]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Bump ...

Despite our starting pitching woes, you could argue that we would be in Wild-Card position right now if this year's bullpen was as good as last year's.

2016 Bullpen:  32-15 (.681),  3.40 ERA,  54/68 in saves (79.4%)

2017 Bullpen:   22-14 (.611),  3.97 ERA,  28/40 in saves (70.0%)

Applying last year's W-L% and Save % to this year's opportunities, we'd have about 6 more wins than we presently do. 64-54 would have us sitting pretty in the Wild-Card race.

Now to be fair, our bullpen has merely gone from great to good. A .611 winning percentage is well above average, and a 70% Save rate is also above average. The 3.97 ERA is also a bit better than average. So, it's not that our bullpen hasn't been (at least) pretty good, it just hasn't lived up to last year's standards. But it's made a difference.    

 

o

 

Thanks for the update, Frank.

I suspect that the absence of Zach Britton for almost 40% of the season (2 DL stints) is one of the factors that has contributed to the bullpen going from great to good in the comparison between the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Thanks for the update, Frank.

I suspect that the absence of Zach Britton for almost 40% of the season (2 DL stints) is one of the factors that has contributed to the bullpen going from great to good in the comparison between the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

 

o

I'd say part of the impact is Zack going from a .54 ERA to a 3.18 ERA.  In a third the innings he's given up twice the earned runs.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say part of the impact is Zack going from a .54 ERA to a 3.18 ERA.  In a third the innings he's given up twice the earned runs.

Hard to say if it's really cost us any wins, though, since he's 1-0 and a perfect 10/10 in saves.   He's allowed runs 3 times in games we were losing already, and twice in games where we had a sizeable lead and won.

[OFFNY]

55 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Thanks for the update, Frank.

I suspect that the absence of Zach Britton for almost 40% of the season (2 DL stints) is one of the factors that has contributed to the bullpen going from great to good in the comparison between the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

 

o

 

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I'd say part of the impact is Zach going from a 0.54 ERA to a 3.18 ERA. In a third the innings he's given up twice the earned runs.

 

o

 

That's true, but I also think that part of that major drop-off of in Britton's ERA from last season to this one is the fact that he has had his season twice interrupted due to arm injury(s).

Pitchers coming off of arm injuries sometimes are not immediately at 100% the minute that they come off of the DL, and I believe that that is/was the case with Britton this season.

 

Hypothetically, had Britton been pitching throughout the entire 2017 season without interruption from arm injury, I believe that he probably would not have had the same unbelievable 0.54 ERA that he had last season, but I also believe that he would probably have a considerably better ERA than his current 3.18 mark.

 

o

[Frobby]

I don't necessarily disagree, but health is part of the game.    He's hardly the only pitcher to have been hurt.

[Frobby]

Updating the stats from the OP to include the 2017 season:

2017: 30-18, 3.93 ERA (4.57 FIP, 4.54 xFIP), 4.82 WPA, 35/52 saves (67.3%)

2016: 32-15, 3.40 ERA (3.90 FIP, 4.11 xFIP), 9.27 WPA, 54/68 saves (79.4%)

2015: 30-19, 3.21 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.64 xFIP), 6.24 WPA, 43/58 saves (74.1%)

2014: 28-21, 3.10 ERA (3.55 FIP, 3.54 xFIP), 6.24 WPA, 53/72 saves (73.6%)

2013: 29-26, 3.52 ERA (3.74 FIP, 3.58 xFIP), 0.54 WPA, 57/84 saves (67.8%)

2012: 32-11, 3.00 ERA (3.68 FIP, 3.88 xFIP), 13.86 WPA, 55/73 saves (75.3%)

 

On the one hand, you could see 2017 as the worst or second-worst year our bullpen has had in the last six years: worst ERA (and FIP and xFIP), worst total saves and save percentage, 2nd worst WPA.    On the other hand, the bullpen had the third best winning percentage (.625) in MLB, was tied for fourth in total wins, and seventh in WPA.    The bullpen pitched the fourth-most innings in baseball, which included an awful lot of garbage innings when the starters had exited early and/or had let games get out of hand.    Overall, I'd say the bullpen did a very solid job, even if not quite up to the standards of some of the prior years.    I think Brach and Givens both suffered from a bit of overuse early in the year due to the absence of Britton and at times O'Day, and Castro suffered in September from overuse in August (24 innings and 10 appearances).

[interloper]

Brach and Givens really disappointed at times this year. Despite their decent ERAs.