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Fangraphs: Baltimore's Dexter Fowler Opportunity


CaptainRedbeard

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I agree with you on this, I think the fangraphs projections on the Orioles are light for a number of players, namely:

Davis: 3.5 WAR

Jones: 3.0 WAR

Schoop: 1.3 WAR

Givens: 0.2 WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

I'd expect 2-3 more wins out of that group than they're currently projected, whereas the only projection I think is high is Kim (1.6 WAR). So I'm with you, I'd say the Orioles are currently a 81-82 win team and adding Gallardo and Fowler puts them at 85-86.

The only one I see significantly low is Schoop, and he's a guy who could plausibly crash with his plate discipline.

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It is out of our hands. Just have to hope it works out.

And remember, I am a pessimist by nature. I naturally think my reasoning is sound but I'm not an unbiased judge. ;)

Gallardo's market rate is something like 3/40, so with a pick it's 3/20. Fowler is something similar, if not a bit higher, so if somehow they get him for 2/20 that's basically market rate. So they're probably overpaying by about $20M for the pair. And they give up a couple prime chances to start restocking the farm, potential for big surplus value beyond the average value of a pick. Not my choice for a plan. But it might work out. It's not that far-fetched to see this team in contention the next couple years.

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Gallardo's market rate is something like 3/40, so with a pick it's 3/20. Fowler is something similar, if not a bit higher, so if somehow they get him for 2/20 that's basically market rate. So they're probably overpaying by about $20M for the pair. And they give up a couple prime chances to start restocking the farm, potential for big surplus value beyond the average value of a pick. Not my choice for a plan. But it might work out. It's not that far-fetched to see this team in contention the next couple years.

It might work out for 2016. It could possibly even work out in 2017. Where does it leave the team after that?

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Gallardo's market rate is something like 3/40, so with a pick it's 3/20. Fowler is something similar, if not a bit higher, so if somehow they get him for 2/20 that's basically market rate. So they're probably overpaying by about $20M for the pair. And they give up a couple prime chances to start restocking the farm, potential for big surplus value beyond the average value of a pick. Not my choice for a plan. But it might work out. It's not that far-fetched to see this team in contention the next couple years.

How did you arrive at the 3/40 for Gallardo's market rate?

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How did you arrive at the 3/40 for Gallardo's market rate?
$7M/win, 4-3-2-1 weighting of his last four years of fWAR, declining at 0.5 wins/year, inflation of 5%.

If you go by what pitchers have actually been paid... I would think his market would be more like Chen or Leake: 5 yr, $80 mil.

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The only one I see significantly low is Schoop, and he's a guy who could plausibly crash with his plate discipline.

I think Jones and Davis are both at least 0.5WAR low. Jones was at 3.6 last year despite playing in only 137 games and having his worst offensive season since 2011. He's projected for only 144 games. Maybe foolishly, but I expect him to get back to his super-durable self. Davis' 3.5 WAR is based on a 125 wRC+. He was at 147 last year. Even with an abysmal 2014 season, I don't see a drop-off that sharp. He certainly does have alot of variability, hard to project.

Givens is the only one that I'm supremely confident that the projections are too low on. He has 3 seasons of data, and the first two are when he was still learning how to transition to pitching and was walking something like 5 per 9. Something clearly clicked for him last year, it's unfathomable to me that he could be projected for a 3.88 FIP. He's like the poster child of when not to rely on a projection system.

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It might work out for 2016. It could possibly even work out in 2017. Where does it leave the team after that?

I guess it makes sense. Go for free agents and draft picks in alternating years. Then at worst you are losing your #1 pick every other year.

As for 2017, next year we keep all our picks. Hopefully Mountcastle makes some progress. If we are not in contention, we have a bunch of tradeable guys with 1-3 years left, any of whom could fetch various levels of prospects: Wieters, Trumbo, O'Day, Hardy, Gallardo, Jones, Britton, Ubaldo. Davis is really the only untradeable contract.

I have been against the Gallardo signing but it makes more sense when packaged with Fowler, and hopefully they keep their picks next year.

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Dexter Fowler is just what the team needs and is well worth the 29th pick if we are going to give up the 14th for Gallardo. For the record, I was against signing both but now that it looks like we are getting Gallardo it makes sense to go all in on Fowler. A 2/25 or 3/36 type contract for him would be very reasonable. Career .360 OBP and figures to be an above average corner outfielder.

All of a sudden our lineup looks much better with some guys that can get on base at the top (Fowler, Machado) and possibly at the bottom too (Kim/Reimold and Wieters):

RF Fowler (S)

3B Machado ®

CF Jones ®

1B Davis (L)

DH Trumbo ®

C Wieters (S)

2B Schoop ®

LF Kim/Reimold (L/R)

SS Hardy ®

Would be really excited about that lineup. Lots of balance.

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