The Case for P. Alvarez

[MDtransplant757]

Why would you make your worst of the three outfielders (Trumbo) play the outfield, while Reimold or Dariel Alvarez DH? Why would you sign Alvarez to platoon at DH if you were already relegating Kim to the bench? There's a reasonable chance Kim is a better hitter than Alvarez.

If I were Pedro Alvarez I'd probably just wait around until someone has an injury in spring training and sign with them. That's probably better than signing a one-year deal with the Orioles to maybe be a platoon DH. And if I'm the Orioles and I look at the current roster I'm struggling to find a place for a platoon DH.

If I'm Pedro I sign a one year deal with someone, then next offseason see what the O's and Trumbo do. If Trumbo isn't resigned, then Pedro becomes a good idea. If he is resigned, then Pedro will sign with someone else

Sent from Neverneverland using James Hetfield's voice

[Redskins Rick]

If we are having trouble finding 40 man spot for Gallardo and Fowler, how do we get P. Alvarez, too?

[DrungoHazewood]

If we are having trouble finding 40 man spot for Gallardo and Fowler, how do we get P. Alvarez, too?

We like to debate, but there's almost never a situation where you can't find multiple guys at the back of the 40-man who aren't longshots.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Kind of where I'm at. It's a fun idea, but ultimately you'd have to figure out how to split time between 2 30-homer bats in Trumbo and Alvarez. One is making $9 mil, one would be making probably $5 mil. That's $14 million for a DH platoon.

You don't need to figure out how to split time right now. That's going to happen with injuries anyway. Since 2012, his first full season in the majors, Fowler has averaged 133.5 games per year. Since 2011 for Trumbo, his first full season, he's averaged 136.4 games. That's an average of 54 games needed by a bench player, right there, and add in 16 games or so missed by Jones/Davis, and you've got 60 starts for Alvarez without even factoring in how much playing time he could take from Kim/Reimold/Rickard in LF.

For example, use Steamer projections:

Jones - 144 games

Davis - 155 games (Steamer is actually at 143 but that's not adjusting for his suspension)

Fowler - 126 games

Trumbo - 131 games

Kim/Reimold/Rickard - 130 games (not actually Steamer, added that)

Leaving Alvarez with almost an entire season's worth 124 games off the bench.

Now, if you want to adjust manually because you think everybody is going to be more durable:

Jones - 150 games

Davis - 155 games (Steamer is actually at 143 but that's not adjusting for his suspension)

Fowler - 145 games

Trumbo - 140 games

Kim/Reimold/Rickard - 130 games

Alvarez still gets 90 starts in that scenario.

I would consider Alvarez's role very similar to the 6th starter spot. Every team realizes they're not going to get through the whole season healthy with 5 starters, and realistically their 6-8 starters are going to make at least 15 starts a year, and likely way more. Alvarez would be backing up 5 position players. Position players don't get major injuries as frequently as starting pitchers, but they do commonly miss many games over the course of the season.

As I've said before, if Alvarez doesn't get enough playing time, then the money spent on him won't be all that important because we'll have had an awesome season with durable performances from 5 position players. The much more likely scenario is that bench players will be needed, and we just can't predict how.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If the Orioles sign Fowler, Alvarez would almost certainly not want to sign where he won't get enough at bats to put up a season that could net him a good contract next year. The Orioles wouldn't be all that interested, either, IMO, since they really wouldn't have a need for him. I don't see either party being attracted to a deal if Fowler signs with Baltimore.

If Alvarez could find a team that could give him regular at-bats and was interested in doing so, he'd have a contract by now. I've run through all the teams in the majors in two of the posts I made in this thread, and there's not a single team that's a fit for him. BAL is the best fit in the AL, and the only NL teams that could use him at 1B (SD, COL, MIL) probably don't want to deal with his defense there. I think the Orioles are his best chance to get at bats.

Alvarez probably has about 2-3 weeks of spring training where he can wait for somebody to get hurt, get signed, and then jump in spring training late and still be ready for the season. If he waits longer than that, he's going to miss out on playing time by not having a contract or not being ready at the start of the season.

[NedFromYork]

Still want Alvarez!

Alvarez DH

Trumbo 1B

Davis RF

Fowler LF

Kim platoons with OF and DH whatever fits until we see what he has. Just one year and then Davis back to 1B for the rest of his contract. I know what Buck said about Davis and 1B so no need to bring that up. Hoping this would be Dan's call and desire. Could substitute Bruce for Alvarez if Toronto deal falls through.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Still want Alvarez!

Alvarez DH

Trumbo 1B

Davis RF

Fowler LF

Kim platoons with OF and DH whatever fits until we see what he has. Just one year and then Davis back to 1B for the rest of his contract. I know what Buck said about Davis and 1B so no need to bring that up. Hoping this would be Dan's call and desire. Could substitute Bruce for Alvarez if Toronto deal falls through.

I think it's more important to see what Kim has than play Alvarez (we already know what he has). As much as I want Alvarez on the bench, playing Trumbo/Davis in the OF would certainly not be alot of fun. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't take advantage of Alvarez's non-existent market and pick him up - I just don't think we should get him with the idea to force Kim to the bench to start the season.

[FanSince88]

I'd rather see bench players on this team preserve its biggest strength -- defense -- instead of compromise it. Alvarez compromises our defense because he'd force Trumbo to the OF (unless Trumbo or Davis are hurt in which case he'd have to pick up a glove which is even scarier). I'd rather the team take a bit of an offensive hit with an injury but preserve the same elite level of defense. The starting rotation needs all the help it can get behind it, Yovani or no Yovani.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I'd rather see bench players on this team preserve its biggest strength -- defense -- instead of compromise it. Alvarez compromises our defense because he'd force Trumbo to the OF (unless Trumbo or Davis are hurt in which case he'd have to pick up a glove which is even scarier). I'd rather the team take a bit of an offensive hit with an injury but preserve the same elite level of defense. The starting rotation needs all the help it can get behind it, Yovani or no Yovani.

True, but Alvarez also helps our team's biggest weakness on offense - LH power. We really only have Davis in that regard. Fowler and Wieters are switch hitters, but better vs LHP. The only other lefties are Kim and Flaherty. Assuming Paredes is DFA'd, our only depth options are Navarro and Urrutia, who have almost zero power. It's not a big deal because Manny, Jones and Schoop all have pretty even splits, but it'd certainly be nice to have another legitimate LH bat around.

Another factor to consider is that Kim may not be all that good defensively in LF in the first place. He's about as big/heavy as Trumbo is. It may not be that big of a drop to be moving one of Davis/Trumbo into the OF. Particularly if Fowler's arm doesn't play in RF and would move over to LF, with Davis/Trumbo in RF, where their only asset is their arm.

[FanSince88]

True, but Alvarez also helps our team's biggest weakness on offense - LH power. We really only have Davis in that regard. Fowler and Wieters are switch hitters, but better vs LHP. The only other lefties are Kim and Flaherty. Assuming Paredes is DFA'd, our only depth options are Navarro and Urrutia, who have almost zero power. It's not a big deal because Manny, Jones and Schoop all have pretty even splits, but it'd certainly be nice to have another legitimate LH bat around.

Another factor to consider is that Kim may not be all that good defensively in LF in the first place. He's about as big/heavy as Trumbo is. It may not be that big of a drop to be moving one of Davis/Trumbo into the OF. Particularly if Fowler's arm doesn't play in RF and would move over to LF, with Davis/Trumbo in RF, where their only asset is their arm.

I just think you've gotta give Kim a real good shot on both defense and offense. He might stumble both in the field and at the plate to open up the season, but I'm fine with that. Give the man consistent at bats until at least mid-June and if he hasn't figured it out by then, perhaps you could consider picking up Alvarez if he's still available or trading for him if he's on another team. I'd prefer not to make Kim feel like we don't believe in him.

[FanSince88]

True, but Alvarez also helps our team's biggest weakness on offense - LH power. We really only have Davis in that regard. Fowler and Wieters are switch hitters, but better vs LHP. The only other lefties are Kim and Flaherty. Assuming Paredes is DFA'd, our only depth options are Navarro and Urrutia, who have almost zero power. It's not a big deal because Manny, Jones and Schoop all have pretty even splits, but it'd certainly be nice to have another legitimate LH bat around.

Another factor to consider is that Kim may not be all that good defensively in LF in the first place. He's about as big/heavy as Trumbo is. It may not be that big of a drop to be moving one of Davis/Trumbo into the OF. Particularly if Fowler's arm doesn't play in RF and would move over to LF, with Davis/Trumbo in RF, where their only asset is their arm.

Also, if Kim is a total bust in the field you can always DH him and move Trumbo out there. I'd rather have Trumbo in the outfield than Alvarez anywhere on the diamond.

If Kim is a bust both in the field and on the plate, then I'd rather have Reimold in the field and Trumbo at DH than Alvarez at DH and Trumbo in the field. Or if Kim struggles against lefties then platoon him with Reimold or Rickard. Only would consider Alvarez if you have to cut Kim completely or send him down to the minors but I don't see that happening until June at the earliest.

[Redskins Rick]

Fowler actually has better power numbers as a left-handed hitter. Something like 14 of his 17 homers last year against righties. Same with Wieters - left-handed is his power side.

Most switch hitters do have more power on their dominate side.

Eddie Murray hit 362 left handed and 142 right handed.

Granted there are way more right handed pitchers, which also accounts for some of the differences.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fowler actually has better power numbers as a left-handed hitter. Something like 14 of his 17 homers last year against righties. Same with Wieters - left-handed is his power side.

Looking at HR totals from sides of the plate is not good analysis because hitters get way more ABs vs RHP than LHP.

Wieters has far better power as a RH batter - his career ISO as a righty is .206, vs. .150 from the left handed side. Alternatively, if you just want to look at homers, he has 37 HR in 843 PA as a RH batter (4.39%) vs. 63 HR in 2153 PA as a LH batter (2.93%). He has a SLG% of .484 as a RH batter and .399 as a LH batter.

Fowler does have better power in terms of XBH from the left hand side - .134 ISO as a RH batter and .158 as a LH batter. But, because his batting average is so much lower as a LH batter and he's hitting fewer singles from that side of the plate, his slugging percentage is actually worse: .438 as a RH batter and .410 as a LH batter.

[Sanfran327]

Wouldn't Alvarez be a bit of a luxury pickup at this point? I'd rather see Trumbo in the lineup every day than feel like we need to choose between him and Alvarez based on the SP matchup. Both would be too expensive to spend as much time on the bench as they would.

[Sanfran327]

Right. I could see an Alvarez-type as a trade deadline acquisition for depth, late PH, and playoff matchup guy, but not at this point. It would have to be CHEAP. Plus, I don't like taking fringey guys from the NL and dropping them into the AL East.