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Our record is better, but are we actually a better team than in 2015?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I guess so but I don't see this team as having any chance at all of getting to a WS.

But an average wild card team has a 6% chance of winning it all, while a team that gets to the ALDS has a 12%. So even if you're extremely down on the O's that only means their odds drop from 1-in-16 to 1-in-30 or something. Clearly no 80+ win team has essentially zero chance of winning several playoff series. The most lopsided AL playoff matchup is going to be something like an 87-win team against a 96-win team.

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blid Major Leaguer Rising Star

blid

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The 2006 Cardinals were 16 games over .500 at 58-42 100 games into the season. They finished 25 and 37 the last 62 games then went on to win the World Series.

Oh yeah, I remember being irrationally angry at the Cardinals that season for backing into the WS in that way.

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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We missed the 2015 Chen that put up a career year with 3.34 ERA and 3.8 WAR. If we had that Chen instead of Gallardo we would probably be ahead of Boston right now.

Yes, agreed.

We most certainly miss 2015 Chen. And half of 2015 Gonzo.

The rotation for this season was a huge whiff by Duquette. Cutting Gonzo, signing an injured Gallardo, trading for a SSS Miley and banking on Wright...all the while getting desperate and forcing Bundy into the rotation isn't something to applaud.

Hey Dan, if our farm system isn't as bad as experts claim it is...how come we didn't/couldn't call up a single impact arm from the minors?

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TradeAngelos All-Star

TradeAngelos

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In 2015, we outscored opponents by 20 runs for the year. This year, with four games to go, we have outscored opponents by 19 runs.

The league as a whole is scoring about .15 runs/game more than last year, and allowing about .20 runs/game more than last year (the discrepancy is due to interleague play). Here's how the Orioles compared to the league in 2015 and 2016:

R/G: 4.40 vs. 4.39 in 2015 (+.01); 4.58 vs. 4.54 in 2016 (+.04)

RA/G: 4.28 vs. 4.29 in 2015 (+.01); 4.46 vs. 4.49 in 2016 (+.03)

ERA: 4.05 vs. 4.01 in 2015 (-.04); 4.26 vs. 4.22 in 2016 (-.04)

As you can see, the differences relative to the league are minimal. Yet, the team has five more wins, with four games left to play.

I think this is probably a classic example of how W-L records can vary quite a bit with very little change in the level of talent. Last year, things didn't go our way, and this year, they have. We were probably a little better than our record in 2015, and we are a little worse than our record in 2016. We have a better record in one-run games (25-26 last year, 21-16 this year), and Britton has been infallible this year whereas last year he was merely great (90% save rate last year vs. 100% this year). That's basically the difference between the two seasons.

You think things have "gone our way" this year?? I can think of about 10 different ways they haven't.

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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In 2015, we outscored opponents by 20 runs for the year. This year, with four games to go, we have outscored opponents by 19 runs.

The league as a whole is scoring about .15 runs/game more than last year, and allowing about .20 runs/game more than last year (the discrepancy is due to interleague play). Here's how the Orioles compared to the league in 2015 and 2016:

R/G: 4.40 vs. 4.39 in 2015 (+.01); 4.58 vs. 4.54 in 2016 (+.04)

RA/G: 4.28 vs. 4.29 in 2015 (+.01); 4.46 vs. 4.49 in 2016 (+.03)

ERA: 4.05 vs. 4.01 in 2015 (-.04); 4.26 vs. 4.22 in 2016 (-.04)

As you can see, the differences relative to the league are minimal. Yet, the team has five more wins, with four games left to play.

I think this is probably a classic example of how W-L records can vary quite a bit with very little change in the level of talent. Last year, things didn't go our way, and this year, they have. We were probably a little better than our record in 2015, and we are a little worse than our record in 2016. We have a better record in one-run games (25-26 last year, 21-16 this year), and Britton has been infallible this year whereas last year he was merely great (90% save rate last year vs. 100% this year). That's basically the difference between the two seasons.

I think so.

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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My eye test says we are a better team. One big difference from last year is the whole AL East has gotten better, so to hold our own statistically as well as in W/L reflects improvement, not just treading water.

This is the answer for me. I think we are better by a fair margin over 2015. I also think our competition is better by a fair margin. In my opinion our lack of consistency is the difference between being in first place and holding on. There will be a time to assess the 2016 season, but I am pretty comfortable saying to me, this team is better than the 2015 team.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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weams said:

o

We did not miss Chen's horrible, injury-filled 5.02 ERA National League pitching to pitchers season. No.

o

Aristotelian said:

o

We missed the 2015 Chen that put up a career year with 3.34 ERA and 3.8 WAR. If we had that Chen instead of Gallardo, we would probably be ahead of Boston right now.

o

o

 

Well, yes.

But Chen did not pitch that way this year, so that is not what we would have been getting had we re-signed him.

 

o

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