What If Alvarez, T. Beckham and Smoak go in the top three...who would you pick at #4?

[LookinUp]

You only have one pick. Who would you take? Personally, I'd go best available and I think that's Matusz.

[DocJJ]

I've seen him play. He's a Major League All-Star. Just pick a position. Catcher. 3B. SS. 1B. OF.

Best hitter I've seen. Period. End of Story.

[LookinUp]

I've seen him play. He's a Major League All-Star. Just pick a position. Catcher. 3B. SS. 1B. OF.

Best hitter I've seen. Period. End of Story.

Have you seen Alvarez, Beckham or Alonso? I have not, for the record.

[ChaosLex]

It's close between Posey, Hosmer and Matusz, but I went with the latter. If we can't have one of the best position players on the board, I'll gladly take the best pitcher.

[LookinUp]

Tough choice...

Yeah, that's why I posed the question. I get the feeling that the general consensus around here is to pick Smoak if neither Alvarez nor T. Beckham fall to us. Nobody's really talked about what happens if neither of the three do though.

It's really an interesting dilemma given the status of our young pitching. I could see the O's justifying someone like Posey, Alonso or Hosmer.

[Hutman]

Matusz, clearly the top pitcher on the board. Hosmer is tempting, but I think the O's want a college player at # 1.

[LookinUp]

Matusz is running away with this vote. Does this post change any minds?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1322428&postcount=28

[DocJJ]

The poll stipulated that Alvarez was off the board. He probably is the best college bat overall.

Smoak switch-hits which is nice and he has a smooth swing with lots of power. But he's done a lot of his damage against weak competition. His long swing might make him vulnerable to high fastballs. I think he'll be a fine major leaguer, but there are some questions...

Posey has a tight compact swing, and the best batting eye I've seen since Barry Bonds. I think he'll reach the majors the soonest. The O's don't need him as they have Wieters. But Posey is athletic enough to play many different positions. If we take him, we can have a surplus of stud catchers for depth or trade bait, or change his position to first base, third base, outfield. He played shortstop in college and many feel he can still play this position fairly well.

Gordon Beckham has a long loopy swing which concerns me. But he excelled in the tough Cape Cod League so that bodes well for him. He looks like an acceptable fielder in college. He won't turn the spectacular play, but he'll make all the routine ones.

[LookinUp]

Posey has a tight compact swing, and the best batting eye I've seen since Barry Bonds.

He sounds a lot like Markakis based on that analysis.

[DocJJ]

I've seen a bunch of his at-bats. It's his eye that really sets him apart. Don't get me wrong, he's a phenomenal athlete with a tight compact swing and power. But his ability to lay off "pitcher's pitches" is really amazing. Anything that's just a tiny bit outside the zone and he won't swing.

He'll fare even better in the pro's because umpiring is generally better and he'll benefit even more.

[Three Run Homer]

Matusz is running away with this vote. Does this post change any minds?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1322428&postcount=28

I think it should. As of now, we're probably in the top 5 of all organizations in the sheer amount of minor league pitching talent, but near the bottom in position player talent. Add to that the facts that teams almost never trade away top position player prospects (except for Tampa Bay, it seems, and they presumably won't trade within the division) and that few good hitters ever make it to free agency in the prime of their careers, and it is imperative that this organization develop more good position players.

[Stotle]

Your first pick shouldn't be based on need. There is plenty of hitting in rounds 2 and on...

[Mackus]

Probably Hosmer or Crow.

[Stotle]

G-Beckham would be a big mistake, in my opinion -- as would drafting anyone because of their position (or avoiding anyone because of their position, including Matusz/Scheppers/Posey).

Why does it seem like many think the 1st round is the only place you can grab good positional talent?

Couple of examples from '04/'05:

2005 Chase Headley (round 2), Reimold (round 2), Mike Costanzo (round 2), Yunel Escobar (round 2), Nick Weglarz (round 3), Taylor Teagarden (round 3), Jordan Schafer (round 3), Brett Gardner (round 3), Brent Lillibridge (round 4), Jeff Larish (round 5)

2004 Reid Brignac (round 2), Dustin Pedroia (round 2), Kurt Suzuki (round 2), Hunter Pence (round 2), Adam Lind (round 3), Chris Iannetta (round 4)

I'm starting to worry that O's fans are going to be hanging unfair expectations on the 1st round pick, this season. I understand the excitement of starting to get talent in the farm system, but you should never 1) draft for need with a top pick, or 2) draft with the hopes that said player will be a quick solution for you. Go about your business taking the best talent available and hope you can develop it. A lot can, and does, happen in 2-4 years.

[Stotle]

How low on your board would you have Gordon Beckham?

I personally have him 4th, and think that is where he should go.. Not a pick of need, or a reach…… still even if you have him 8th to 10th… you would have to make a strong argument that your pick at 4th was rated vastly higher on your board vs Beckham, to justify going in another direction.

G-Bex's talent warrants a 12-15 ranking, in my opinion. That's where his talent translates to the pro game.

I haven't sat down to do this in a while but it would be something like

1. T-Bex

2. Alvarez

3. Posey

4. Matusz

5. Smoak

6. Scheppers

7. Hosmer

8. Crow

9. Skipworth

10. Hunt

11. Melville

12. Friedrich

13. G-Bex

14. Alonso

15. Fields