More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

2011 was our worst year under Buck, because our SP was awful and our BP was ok

I already tried to tell them that.  Evidently some sort of widespread amnesia has swept the OH.

2011, under Buck, 69 wins.

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I already tried to tell them that.  Evidently some sort of widespread amnesia has swept the OH.

2011, under Buck, 69 wins.

To be fair, I want to forget that season too. Except for the last game, cause I hate the red sox

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

To be fair, I want to forget that season too. Except for the last game, cause I hate the red sox

I think it interferes with the adulation of Buck.  So it is more convenient for folks to act like it didn't happen.

 

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think it interferes with the adulation of Buck.  So it is more convenient for folks to act like it didn't happen.

 

Buck deserves credit for our turnaround. Can't see us getting to the playoffs with Dave Trembly, don't you?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Buck deserves credit for our turnaround. Can't see us getting to the playoffs with Dave Trembly, don't you?

Did I deny that?

I do however think that some folks give Buck too much credit.  2011 shows that just having Buck isn't a guard against losing.

Just remember the O's won a world series under Joe Altobelli.

[Redskins Rick]

PECOTA is wrong every year.

Yet, every year, posters get enflamed over their terrible predictions.

I think stopping at PETCO might produce better results.

 

 

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Did I deny that?

I do however think that some folks give Buck too much credit.  2011 shows that just having Buck isn't a guard against losing.

Just remember the O's won a world series under Joe Altobelli.

You didn't, but I see why people do give him credit. I think you need to give credit to MacPhail and to DD more so than Buck. MacPhail built the core and DD got the ensemble going. There is no way in hell that MacPhail brings in Chen, Hammels, O'Day, Miguel, etc. and no way that team is remotely as good as it is without Buck. That 83 team, from all the interviews I read; essentially managed themselves. 

[backwardsk]

On the bright side, Tillman won't cost as much to bring back.

[oriole]

The offensive projections don't seem too far off. Hopefully one or two guys have big years...maybe Machado puts up huge numbers or Jones clears the .800 OPS mark. Maybe Davis hits 50+ home runs again? Im more optimistic but I'm also biased.

 

I happen to think our pitching is mostly garbage but I think Gausman and Bundy do better than those projections. Tillman is hit or miss and Miley and Jimenez are lost causes so who really knows what happens there.

[Frobby]

I'd have to go back, but it seems to me that the main reason PECOTA annually projects us to be bad is the pitching projections.    The offensive projections are usually in the ballpark.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

The offensive projections don't seem too far off. Hopefully one or two guys have big years...maybe Machado puts up huge numbers or Jones clears the .800 OPS mark. Maybe Davis hits 50+ home runs again? Im more optimistic but I'm also biased.

 

I happen to think our pitching is mostly garbage but I think Gausman and Bundy do better than those projections. Tillman is hit or miss and Miley and Jimenez are lost causes so who really knows what happens there.

I'm actually more suprised about how poor the RP projections are.  Givens at 4.13?  O'Day at 3.97?  Britton at 2.94?  That is some serious drop offs.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, oriole said:

The offensive projections don't seem too far off. Hopefully one or two guys have big years...maybe Machado puts up huge numbers or Jones clears the .800 OPS mark. Maybe Davis hits 50+ home runs again? Im more optimistic but I'm also biased.

 

I happen to think our pitching is mostly garbage but I think Gausman and Bundy do better than those projections. Tillman is hit or miss and Miley and Jimenez are lost causes so who really knows what happens there.

I don't think this is fair in the context of the prediction people are pushing back on...

Tillman's ERAs since he's been a Major League regular:

2012 - 2.93
2013 - 3.71
2014 - 3.34
2015 - 4.99
2016 - 3.77
Career - 4.13

Predicting a 5.06 certainly seems like going beyond "normal fluctuations" or typical "hit or miss."

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm actually more suprised about how poor the RP projections are.  Givens at 4.13?  O'Day at 3.97?  Britton at 2.94?  That is some serious drop offs.

Britton surprises me as well as he has good peripherals.  Perhaps the model normalizes his GB rate?  

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd have to go back, but it seems to me that the main reason PECOTA annually projects us to be bad is the pitching projections.    The offensive projections are usually in the ballpark.

Right.  Seems to be the case here with a ~100 run slide in pitching performance.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd have to go back, but it seems to me that the main reason PECOTA annually projects us to be bad is the pitching projections.    The offensive projections are usually in the ballpark.

OK, I've gone back a few years.

2013: Projected 711 runs scored (745 actual), 782 allowed (709)

2014: Projected 686 runs scored (705 actual), 746 allowed (593)

2015: Projected 698 runs allowed (693 actual) (can't find a runs scored projection)

2016: Projected 697 runs scored (744 actual), 786 allowed (715).

That pretty much comfirms what I said, though they've regularly been a little low on the offensive side as well.    They were drastically off on the pitching in 2013, 2014, and 2016.    And they'll be drastically off in 2017, IMO.    There's really no common sense justification to think the team will allow 103 more runs than last year.