That Loss Was On Buck but Wilson must go

[El Gordo]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I already said I would have been fine with Buck saying he wasn't available.  Why bring this up again?  If he can pitch he can pitch, if he can't pitch he can't pitch.

This is either naive or specious.

[backwardsk]

Haven't read the whole thread.  Why no Givens?  His velocity was down on Wednesday.  Is something up there?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Haven't read the whole thread.  Why no Givens?  His velocity was down on Wednesday.  Is something up there?

We don't know.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you can explain the logic of Brach only being available to protect a lead?

It makes no sense to me.

Either a pitcher is available or he is not.

It makes perfect sense to me.   Brach is on his 3rd day, and you really don't WANT to use him.   But if he can contribute to a likely win, it could be worth the overuse

The following numbers are just made off off the top of my head, so don't jump on me if they aren't right.   But here's the concept.   Going into the bottom of the 9th we had, say, a 40% chance of winning the game.   The ABSOLUTE BEST we could have done by bringing in Brach was make it a 50% chance.   Using a precious resource when it still doesn't give you even a 51% chance to win the game is not a good resource allocation.

If you save him for a 1 run lead that you may eventually get, then if you do use him on a day you'd rather not, at least you are using him to take an 80-85% chance of a win and make it 100%.   That's a big difference.   At least you have some degree of likelihood that you are firing a bullet (and making him unavailable the next day for sure) in a game that you have a real shot to win, not just to take a 40% chance and bump it up to 50.   

I have no problem with DOD and ZB being unavailable, and BB being considered only available for a lead, in this game (though unlike Buck I would probably not even use BB in the unlikely case that we got 3 runs in the top of an extra inning).   At that point, your choices are:   staying with Wilson, or going to Nuno (lefty and also someone Buck doesn't seem to trust for whatever reason), Crichton for his major league debut, or Givens,   Keeping in mind that yanking Wilson not only changes the pitcher for the 9th but gives you one less guy to use if we do wind up in a long extra inning game.   So all other things being equal [which I know they aren't], NOT making a move is better than making a move

Like eddie83, my biggest question is why Givens wasn't used, not just in the 9th but in place of Wilson altogether,  I'd like to hear an answer to that, don't know if we'll ever get it.   But if there is a legitimate reason he wasn't available, then i probably would have done exactly what Buck did.  

And as others have pointed out, if we can get someone better than Wilson on the roster, we should.

[El Gordo]

Just now, SteveA said:

It makes perfect sense to me.   Brach is on his 3rd day, and you really don't WANT to use him.   But if he can contribute to a likely win, it could be worth the overuse

The following numbers are just made off off the top of my head, so don't jump on me if they aren't right.   But here's the concept.   Going into the bottom of the 9th we had, say, a 40% chance of winning the game.   The ABSOLUTE BEST we could have done by bringing in Brach was make it a 50% chance.   Using a precious resource when it still doesn't give you even a 51% chance to win the game is not a good resource allocation.

If you save him for a 1 run lead that you may eventually get, then if you do use him on a day you'd rather not, at least you are using him to take an 80-85% chance of a win and make it 100%.   That's a big difference.   At least you have some degree of likelihood that you are firing a bullet (and making him unavailable the next day for sure) in a game that you have a real shot to win, not just to take a 40% chance and bump it up to 50.   

I have no problem with DOD and ZB being unavailable, and BB being considered only available for a lead, in this game (though unlike Buck I would probably not even use BB in the unlikely case that we got 3 runs in the top of an extra inning).   At that point, your choices are:   staying with Wilson, or going to Nuno (lefty and also someone Buck doesn't seem to trust for whatever reason), Crichton for his major league debut, or Givens,   Keeping in mind that yanking Wilson not only changes the pitcher for the 9th but gives you one less guy to use if we do wind up in a long extra inning game.   So all other things being equal [which I know they aren't], NOT making a move is better than making a move

Like eddie83, my biggest question is why Givens wasn't used, not just in the 9th but in place of Wilson altogether,  I'd like to hear an answer to that, don't know if we'll ever get it.   But if there is a legitimate reason he wasn't available, then i probably would have done exactly what Buck did.  

And as others have pointed out, if we can get someone better than Wilson on the roster, we should.

His velo was down the last time he worked and Weams said something about the flu. Obviously Buck's not going to let TOR know if he is available or not

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It makes perfect sense to me.   Brach is on his 3rd day, and you really don't WANT to use him.   But if he can contribute to a likely win, it could be worth the overuse

The following numbers are just made off off the top of my head, so don't jump on me if they aren't right.   But here's the concept.   Going into the bottom of the 9th we had, say, a 40% chance of winning the game.   The ABSOLUTE BEST we could have done by bringing in Brach was make it a 50% chance.   Using a precious resource when it still doesn't give you even a 51% chance to win the game is not a good resource allocation.

If you save him for a 1 run lead that you may eventually get, then if you do use him on a day you'd rather not, at least you are using him to take an 80-85% chance of a win and make it 100%.   That's a big difference.   At least you have some degree of likelihood that you are firing a bullet (and making him unavailable the next day for sure) in a game that you have a real shot to win, not just to take a 40% chance and bump it up to 50.   

I have no problem with DOD and ZB being unavailable, and BB being considered only available for a lead, in this game (though unlike Buck I would probably not even use BB in the unlikely case that we got 3 runs in the top of an extra inning).   At that point, your choices are:   staying with Wilson, or going to Nuno (lefty and also someone Buck doesn't seem to trust for whatever reason), Crichton for his major league debut, or Givens,   Keeping in mind that yanking Wilson not only changes the pitcher for the 9th but gives you one less guy to use if we do wind up in a long extra inning game.   So all other things being equal [which I know they aren't], NOT making a move is better than making a move

Like eddie83, my biggest question is why Givens wasn't used, not just in the 9th but in place of Wilson altogether,  I'd like to hear an answer to that, don't know if we'll ever get it.   But if there is a legitimate reason he wasn't available, then i probably would have done exactly what Buck did.  

And as others have pointed out, if we can get someone better than Wilson on the roster, we should.

And if throwing Wilson reduces it to a 25% chance?

Once you are in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game you have to maximize your chance to get to extra innings.  It doesn't matter how good a Brach or Britton is if you lose before they get into the game.

[SteveA]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And if throwing Wilson reduces it to a 25% chance?

Once you are in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game you have to maximize your chance to get to extra innings.  It doesn't matter how good a Brach or Britton is if you lose before they get into the game.

In a 1 game wildcard playoff I'd agree with you 100%.   In one game of 162, when you would rather not use him for a 3rd straight day, I think it's a very reasonable strategy to only use him in a game you have a significant chance to win.   Not to get yourself to a 50/50 chance to wiin.   That's my opinion, at least.

Over the course of the year there are situations where you would rather not use a guy, but if circumstances merit, you'll use him.   And to me, GETTING to a 50% chance to win the game is not one of those situations.

Think of it this way...you are on a diet.   You know that every once in a while you are probably going to cheat a bit.   Over the course of, say 162 days, you kind of give yourself permission to cheat say 5 or 6 times.   You feel like 5 or 6 cheats over that period of time isn't going to ruin our diet.   That being the case, you are going to save those cheat times for something really delicious, not a stale bag of Doritos.

Similarly, if you feel you would PREFER not to use Brach a 3rd straight day but in some special circumstances you would break your rule a few times a season, I think it makes perfect sense to save him for situations where his contribution is to nail down a win rather than nail down a 50/50 chance to win.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

The constant need to say every loss was "on" someone or to pinpoint blame is annoying. Sometimes you just lose.

If there's such a thing as a loss you can shrug off, that was the very definition of it. The Orioles were using a minor-league fifth-starter callup and went up against a very good pitcher. They probably couldn't use O'Day, Brach, or Britton because they'd all pitched two days in a row, so they had a thin bullpen. Entering the game, nobody would've been surprised or especially upset by an Orioles loss under those circumstances. At least they made it exciting at the end.

Maybe they could have used Givens, but that ignores the fact that Wilson came in with an out in the bottom of the eighth, when they were still down a run.  Not going to burn Givens (and waste Wilson, who got a win OD) when we have an early game tomorrow and-as has been mentioned-BOB has been overworked.

[Chavez Ravine]

Just now, SteveA said:

In a 1 game wildcard playoff I'd agree with you 100%.   In one game of 162, when you would rather not use him for a 3rd straight day, I think it's a very reasonable strategy to only use him in a game you have a significant chance to win.   Not to get yourself to a 50/50 chance to wiin.   That's my opinion, at least.

Over the course of the year there are situations where you would rather not use a guy, but if circumstances merit, you'll use him.   And to me, GETTING to a 50% chance to win the game is not one of those situations.

Think of it this way...you are on a diet.   You know that every once in a while you are probably going to cheat a bit.   Over the course of, say 162 days, you kind of give yourself permission to cheat say 5 or 6 times.   You feel like 5 or 6 cheats over that period of time isn't going to ruin our diet.   That being the case, you are going to save those cheat times for something really delicious, not a stale bag of Doritos.

Similarly, if you feel you would PREFER not to use Brach a 3rd straight day but in some special circumstances you would break your rule a few times a season, I think it makes perfect sense to save him for situations where his contribution is to nail down a win rather than nail down a 50/50 chance to win.

That's it.  If it is a one game playoff you use Brach,,,and Britton...and O'Day.

(We all know what happened last time)

But if your goal is to not use Brach....unless circumstances really, really tempt you.  Then you do what Buck did.

 

[backwardsk]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And if throwing Wilson reduces it to a 25% chance?

Once you are in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game you have to maximize your chance to get to extra innings.  It doesn't matter how good a Brach or Britton is if you lose before they get into the game.

I'm in the "I don't have a problem camp."  I can explain it in my head, but may have trouble putting it on paper.  Let me try.

What is the chance of winning if we are up 1 going to the bottom of the ninth with Brach?  Pretty high.  Lock up the win.  Sacrifice him for tomorrow.  Come out of Toronto with 3 out of 4, great.  

Game is tied.  Are we better off with Brach or Wilson/Nuno?  Brach.  But do we score in the 10th?  Likely not.  Brach's burned for Sunday.  Chances of winning Saturday still the same.  

Combined, our chances of winning 1 out of 2 over Sat/Sun is greater if you hold back Brach in a tie game.  Our chances of losing two in a row is greater if you put him in today even if you extend the game.

If you think the chances of Wilson holding this Toronto team scoreless for one inning is so low, then he shouldn't be on the 25.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, backwardsk said:

I'm in the "I don't have a problem camp."  I can explain it in my head, but may have trouble putting it on paper.  Let me try.

What is the chance of winning if we are up 1 going to the bottom of the ninth with Brach?  Pretty high.  Lock up the win.  Sacrifice him for tomorrow.  Come out of Toronto with 3 out of 4, great.  

Game is tied.  Are we better off with Brach or Wilson/Nuno?  Brach.  But do we score in the 10th?  Likely not.  Brach's burned for Sunday.  Chances of winning Saturday still the same.  

Combined, our chances of winning 1 out of 2 over Sat/Sun is greater if you hold back Brach in a tie game.  Our chances of losing two in a row is greater if you put him in today even if you extend the lead.

If you think the chances of Wilson holding this Toronto team scoreless for one inning is so low, then he shouldn't be on the 25.

Well that isn't my call now is it? 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Chavez Ravine said:

That's it.  If it is a one game playoff you use Brach,,,and Britton...and O'Day.

(We all know what happened last time)

But if your goal is to not use Brach....unless circumstances really, really tempt you.  Then you do what Buck did.

 

If my goal is to not use Brach I make him unavailable.  As opposed to available for saves situations only.

[BohKnowsBmore]

16 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It makes perfect sense to me.   Brach is on his 3rd day, and you really don't WANT to use him.   But if he can contribute to a likely win, it could be worth the overuse

The following numbers are just made off off the top of my head, so don't jump on me if they aren't right.   But here's the concept.   Going into the bottom of the 9th we had, say, a 40% chance of winning the game.   The ABSOLUTE BEST we could have done by bringing in Brach was make it a 50% chance.   Using a precious resource when it still doesn't give you even a 51% chance to win the game is not a good resource allocation.

If you save him for a 1 run lead that you may eventually get, then if you do use him on a day you'd rather not, at least you are using him to take an 80-85% chance of a win and make it 100%.   That's a big difference.   At least you have some degree of likelihood that you are firing a bullet (and making him unavailable the next day for sure) in a game that you have a real shot to win, not just to take a 40% chance and bump it up to 50.   

I have no problem with DOD and ZB being unavailable, and BB being considered only available for a lead, in this game (though unlike Buck I would probably not even use BB in the unlikely case that we got 3 runs in the top of an extra inning).   At that point, your choices are:   staying with Wilson, or going to Nuno (lefty and also someone Buck doesn't seem to trust for whatever reason), Crichton for his major league debut, or Givens,   Keeping in mind that yanking Wilson not only changes the pitcher for the 9th but gives you one less guy to use if we do wind up in a long extra inning game.   So all other things being equal [which I know they aren't], NOT making a move is better than making a move

Like eddie83, my biggest question is why Givens wasn't used, not just in the 9th but in place of Wilson altogether,  I'd like to hear an answer to that, don't know if we'll ever get it.   But if there is a legitimate reason he wasn't available, then i probably would have done exactly what Buck did.  

And as others have pointed out, if we can get someone better than Wilson on the roster, we should.

My thinking is that Wilson was brought in when we were down by 1, with only one out remaining.  He has a wild pitch, but gets Bautista to fly out.  He had a good OD, wasn;t good against NYY.  It's a tie game and BOB likely isn't available.  Let's say the game is a coin flip and could go for 2 or 3 more innings.  Burning Wilson after 1/3 of an inning and having already used Hart, you have like 2 pitchers remaining in Givens and Nuno.  You're not completely depleting your BP at this point with a game tomorrow just for the chance to maybe win this game.  If we're ahead there, I agree, preserve the win, but I get the thinking of keeping Wilson in.  If he's on the 25, you pitch him there. 

I won't argue that we should keep him up necessarily, though.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If my goal is to not use Brach I make him unavailable.  As opposed to available for saves situations only.

This still falls under the risk/reward tradeoff that's been posed above.  If we have a lead and he can ice it, then yea you definitely burn him for tomorrow with two days rest.  If he would be holding the Jays just for us to have to attempt to score in the top of the tenth and still have to hold them in the bottom of the tenth, it's not as clear of a payoff.  If we still lose, then you don't have him for tomorrow (Sun) and thus have decreased the chance of still going 3/4 in Toronto.

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And if throwing Wilson reduces it to a 25% chance?

Once you are in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game you have to maximize your chance to get to extra innings.  It doesn't matter how good a Brach or Britton is if you lose before they get into the game.

No, you are not playing inning by inning. When you are on the road, you need to get through at least two innings. You are playing to win the game, not each inning. If you pitch Brach, you still have to pitch your other long man (Nuno) to win the game. You will have also burned Wilson in the event that the game goes longer than 10 innings.

Brach + Nuno gives you the best chance to preserve the tie, but Wilson gives you the best chance to win the game because you keep both Brach and Nuno available.