A look around the AL East at the 1/3 mark

[Frobby]

The O's and Yankees are just shy of the 1/3 mark, but the Rays and Jays are past it and the Sox are right on it, so this seems like a good time to take stock.    Who's exceeding expectations, or underperforming them, and why?   What looks sustainable and what doesn't?

The Yankees lead the division at 31-21.   They lead the AL in runs/game and are second in ERA. While Gary Sanchez (.830 OPS) was injured a while and has looked more like Jorge Posada than last year's Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge (1.107) and Aaron Hicks (1.016) have more than made up the slack.   Starlin Castro (.826) is having a career year, and Brett Gardner (.892) is in double digits in home runs less than 1/3 into the season despite having hit double digit homers only twice previously in his career.   Matt Holliday (.875) has found a fountain of youth in NY.   On the pitching side, Severino (2.94 ERA) has been outstanding, Tanaka (6.34) has been a huge disappointment, while Pineda, Montgomery and Sabathia have all been solid.    The rotation is 7th in ERA in the league.   The bullpen, as usual, has been good, though Chapman's down now with a shoulder inflammation and we don't know how serious it is.   The team save rate is only 64%, about league average, despite a better than average bullpen ERA (3.09, 4th in the league).  

Assessment:  The Yankees offense has nowhere to go but down, but it's looking formidable.   I underrated this team coming into this season and even though I think they'll cool off, they're the favorites to win the division at this point.   

The Red Sox are in third at 29-25.   They're third in runs/game (despite being dead last in homers) and 6th in ERA.   They're sort of the flip side of the Yankees, with a lot of players who had career years last year coming down to earth this year, like Mookie  Betts (.824 OPS), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.765), Sandy Leon (.657) and Rick Porcello (3-6, 4.21 ERA).   Also, consensus rookie of the year favorite Andrew Benintendi hasn't been all that (.739).   Mitch Moreland (.846) and Christian Vazquez (.845) have picked up some of the slack, and Bogaerts (.846) continues to get a little better each year.    The rotation's ERA is 4.33, 9th in the league.   Sale (2.77 ERA, 110 strikeouts) has been everything expected, but Price was on the shelf and as mentioned Porcello has been just so-so, and Wright was awful before having season ending surgery.   Kimbrell (0.75 ERA) has done a nice job as closer and Boston has the best save rate (80%) and bullpen ERA (3.06) in the division.   

Assessment:  the Sox are capable of being a bit better than they've been so far.    They'll be in the hunt at the end.    

The Rays are 29-28 and have been surprising on offense, hitting tons of homers (83 in 56 games) while leading the world in strikeouts by a wide margin (577 total, more than 10 per game).    I guess you could say they're out-Orioling the Orioles.   Logan Morrison (15), Corey Dickerson (12) and Stephen Souza, Jr. (10) lead the homer brigade and are posting OPS's of .909, .992 and .897, respectively.    They're 5th in the league in runs/game and 4th in ERA.  The starting staff has been typically good (3.71 ERA, 2nd in the league), with four under-30 starters posting ERA's under 4.00 (Odorizzi 3.14, Andriese 3.45, Archer 3.67, Cobb 3.74).   Colome has done a good job closing but overall the bullpen has been below average (59% save rate, 4.03 ERA).   

Assessment:   This is a plucky team that's actually underperformed its Pythagorean record by two games, but I don't think the offense will continue to perform this well.     The Rays may hover above .500 and stay on the fringe of wild card contention, but I think 85 wins is about their ceiling.   

The Blue Jays are 27-28, having dug most of the way out of the 1-9 hole they dug at the beginning of the year.    They've had a lot of injuries, with Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Happ, Sanchez and Liriano all spending time on the DL.    Still, the Jays' offense just isn't what it used to be (11th in runs/game), with Encarnacion gone and Bautista (.806 OPS) still dangerous but fading.  Justin Smoak (.887 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise, and Kendrys Morales (.812) is a professional hitter even if not the power threat Encarnacion was.   Donaldson has been his usual self (.926) when healthy.    But there are a lot of holes in this lineup.   The starters have been good when healthy, but  due to the injuries the rotation's ERA is 4.42, 10th in the league.   The bullpen has been shaky (14 saves, 11 blown saves) despite a decent 3.86 bullpen ERA.   Overall they're 8th in ERA.  

Assessment:  The Jays are still dangerous if they can get their rotation healthy.    

And finally, that brings us to the Orioles.  How are they doing it?   They're 9th in runs/game, 11th in ERA, and yet, in playoff position.  They started 22-10, mostly playing the AL East, and going 8-1 in one run games.   Then they turned on a dime, losing 13 of 16, including 7 consecutive one-run losses and a bunch of two run losses mixed in.   Now they've managed a 4-1 streak against NY and Boston to reach 29-24, back in second place, despite being outscored by a couple of runs on the season.    Trey Mancini (.858 OPS) has been the big surprise on offense, with Jonathan Schoop (.810) and Welington Castillo (.805) off to nice starts.   Manny Machado (.696) and  JJ Hardy (.567) are the main reasons the O's offense has been a slight disappointment overall.    The rotation has been bad overall, 13th in ERA at 4.65 and providing few IP/start as well.   Among the starters, Dylan Bundy (2.89 ERA) has been amazingly consistent, while Wade Miley (2.82) has been surprisingly effective despite walking a lot of batters and having some short outings.    Kevin Gausman (5.92) has been disappointing but shows some signs of righting the ship a little, Chris Tillman (5.87) missed 5 weeks and hasn't looked good, and Ubaldo (6.66) has pitched his way out of the rotation.   The O's have gotten nice contributions from Alec Asher and some spot starters.    The bullpen has missed Zach Britton greatly, and faltered for a couple of weeks while Brach and Givens got overused and O'Day sat out a week with an undisclosed injury, but they seem to be humming on their Zach-less cylinders now.   Their 3.93 bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, but their 68% save rate is above average,   if not quite up to their usual standards.   

Assessment:  for the O's to remain in contention, a few things will need to happen.    First, the offense will need to take things up a half-notch; we're going to need to win some games where the starters don't perform well.    Second, Gausman needs to get his act together over an extended period of time; Miley will probably fall back a bit and Bundy's a victim of his own success, on pace to throw 210+ innings, which seems impossible and perhaps unwise.    Tillman's probably not coming to the rescue and the fifth spot will need to be managed all year.   The bullpen will probably be better the rest of the way than it's been so far, and we may eke out a few wins that way.

Overall, it looks like a dogfight.    The last place Jays are one game below .500 and it's conceivable that every team in the division could be over .500 at the end of the year.    I expect a lot of twists and turns and highs and lows, and I'm looking forward to the battle.   

[Note: BB-ref was slow updating today, so all stats cited are one day out of date, even though the team records are current.]

[Pickles]

Great thread.

Parity.  Nobody is bad in this division; nobody is great.  Very similar to what we've seen the last few years.

It's there for the O's.

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Pickles said:

Great thread.

Parity.  Nobody is bad in this division; nobody is great.  Very similar to what we've seen the last few years.

It's there for the O's.

The division is stronger than usual at the bottom, I think.   

[Frobby]

OK, so now we're exactly at the 1/3 mark, at 29-25, which is on pace for an 87-75 season.     My sense is that it's about where we belong, but that the pitching will need to improve to stay on that pace or higher.     We're not likely to be 29-25 over the next 54 games if our opponents score more runs than we do over that period, as they have so far.   

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, so now we're exactly at the 1/3 mark, at 29-25, which is on pace for an 87-75 season.     My sense is that it's about where we belong, but that the pitching will need to improve to stay on that pace or higher.     We're not likely to be 29-25 over the next 54 games if our opponents score more runs than we do over that period, as they have so far.   

Bundy is on pace for 230 innings.  When exactly is Buck going to start letting up on his usage?

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bundy is on pace for 230 innings.  When exactly is Buck going to start letting up on his usage?

Hey, he only pitched 5 innings yesterday....

[Sessh]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O's and Yankees are just shy of the 1/3 mark, but the Rays and Jays are past it and the Sox are right on it, so this seems like a good time to take stock.    Who's exceeding expectations, or underperforming them, and why?   What looks sustainable and what doesn't?

The Yankees lead the division at 31-21.   They lead the AL in runs/game and are second in ERA. While Gary Sanchez (.830 OPS) was injured a while and has looked more like Jorge Posada than last year's Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge (1.107) and Aaron Hicks (1.016) have more than made up the slack.   Starlin Castro (.826) is having a career year, and Brett Gardner (.892) is in double digits in home runs less than 1/3 into the season despite having hit double digit homers only twice previously in his career.   Matt Holliday (.875) has found a fountain of youth in NY.   On the pitching side, Severino (2.94 ERA) has been outstanding, Tanaka (6.34) has been a huge disappointment, while Pineda, Montgomery and Sabathia have all been solid.    The rotation is 7th in ERA in the league.   The bullpen, as usual, has been good, though Chapman's down now with a shoulder inflammation and we don't know how serious it is.   The team save rate is only 64%, about league average, despite a better than average bullpen ERA (3.09, 4th in the league).  

Assessment:  The Yankees offense has nowhere to go but down, but it's looking formidable.   I underrated this team coming into this season and even though I think they'll cool off, they're the favorites to win the division at this point.   

The Red Sox are in third at 29-25.   They're third in runs/game (despite being dead last in homers) and 6th in ERA.   They're sort of the flip side of the Yankees, with a lot of players who had career years last year coming down to earth this year, like Mookie  Betts (.824 OPS), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.765), Sandy Leon (.657) and Rick Porcello (3-6, 4.21 ERA).   Also, consensus rookie of the year favorite Andrew Benintendi hasn't been all that (.739).   Mitch Moreland (.846) and Christian Vazquez (.845) have picked up some of the slack, and Bogaerts (.846) continues to get a little better each year.    The rotation's ERA is 4.33, 9th in the league.   Sale (2.77 ERA, 110 strikeouts) has been everything expected, but Price was on the shelf and as mentioned Porcello has been just so-so, and Wright was awful before having season ending surgery.   Kimbrell (0.75 ERA) has done a nice job as closer and Boston has the best save rate (80%) and bullpen ERA (3.06) in the division.   

Assessment:  the Sox are capable of being a bit better than they've been so far.    They'll be in the hunt at the end.    

The Rays are 29-28 and have been surprising on offense, hitting tons of homers (83 in 56 games) while leading the world in strikeouts by a wide margin (577 total, more than 10 per game).    I guess you could say they're out-Orioling the Orioles.   Logan Morrison (15), Corey Dickerson (12) and Stephen Souza, Jr. (10) lead the homer brigade and are posting OPS's of .909, .992 and .897, respectively.    They're 5th in the league in runs/game and 4th in ERA.  The starting staff has been typically good (3.71 ERA, 2nd in the league), with four under-30 starters posting ERA's under 4.00 (Odorizzi 3.14, Andriese 3.45, Archer 3.67, Cobb 3.74).   Colome has done a good job closing but overall the bullpen has been below average (59% save rate, 4.03 ERA).   

Assessment:   This is a plucky team that's actually underperformed its Pythagorean record by two games, but I don't think the offense will continue to perform this well.     The Rays may hover above .500 and stay on the fringe of wild card contention, but I think 85 wins is about their ceiling.   

The Blue Jays are 27-28, having dug most of the way out of the 1-9 hole they dug at the beginning of the year.    They've had a lot of injuries, with Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Happ, Sanchez and Liriano all spending time on the DL.    Still, the Jays' offense just isn't what it used to be (11th in runs/game), with Encarnacion gone and Bautista (.806 OPS) still dangerous but fading.  Justin Smoak (.887 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise, and Kendrys Morales (.812) is a professional hitter even if not the power threat Encarnacion was.   Donaldson has been his usual self (.926) when healthy.    But there are a lot of holes in this lineup.   The starters have been good when healthy, but  due to the injuries the rotation's ERA is 4.42, 10th in the league.   The bullpen has been shaky (14 saves, 11 blown saves) despite a decent 3.86 bullpen ERA.   Overall they're 8th in ERA.  

Assessment:  The Jays are still dangerous if they can get their rotation healthy.    

And finally, that brings us to the Orioles.  How are they doing it?   They're 9th in runs/game, 11th in ERA, and yet, in playoff position.  They started 22-10, mostly playing the AL East, and going 8-1 in one run games.   Then they turned on a dime, losing 13 of 16, including 7 consecutive one-run losses and a bunch of two run losses mixed in.   Now they've managed a 4-1 streak against NY and Boston to reach 29-24, back in second place, despite being outscored by a couple of runs on the season.    Trey Mancini (.858 OPS) has been the big surprise on offense, with Jonathan Schoop (.810) and Welington Castillo (.805) off to nice starts.   Manny Machado (.696) and  JJ Hardy (.567) are the main reasons the O's offense has been a slight disappointment overall.    The rotation has been bad overall, 13th in ERA at 4.65 and providing few IP/start as well.   Among the starters, Dylan Bundy (2.89 ERA) has been amazingly consistent, while Wade Miley (2.82) has been surprisingly effective despite walking a lot of batters and having some short outings.    Kevin Gausman (5.92) has been disappointing but shows some signs of righting the ship a little, Chris Tillman (5.87) missed 5 weeks and hasn't looked good, and Ubaldo (6.66) has pitched his way out of the rotation.   The O's have gotten nice contributions from Alec Asher and some spot starters.    The bullpen has missed Zach Britton greatly, and faltered for a couple of weeks while Brach and Givens got overused and O'Day sat out a week with an undisclosed injury, but they seem to be humming on their Zach-less cylinders now.   Their 3.93 bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, but their 68% save rate is above average,   if not quite up to their usual standards.   

Assessment:  for the O's to remain in contention, a few things will need to happen.    First, the offense will need to take things up a half-notch; we're going to need to win some games where the starters don't perform well.    Second, Gausman needs to get his act together over an extended period of time; Miley will probably fall back a bit and Bundy's a victim of his own success, on pace to throw 210+ innings, which seems impossible and perhaps unwise.    Tillman's probably not coming to the rescue and the fifth spot will need to be managed all year.   The bullpen will probably be better the rest of the way than it's been so far, and we may eke out a few wins that way.

Overall, it looks like a dogfight.    The last place Jays are one game below .500 and it's conceivable that every team in the division could be over .500 at the end of the year.    I expect a lot of twists and turns and highs and lows, and I'm looking forward to the battle.   

[Note: BB-ref was slow updating today, so all stats cited are one day out of date, even though the team records are current.]

Hey, great post there, Frobby. I pretty much agree with everything there.

- Chapman has shoulder inflammation with no structural damage and he apparently had a similar injury when he was with the Reds that sidelined him for a couple weeks, but the Yankees/Chapman were apparently hiding this injury for awhile. He is expected to be out until the middle of this month, but doesn't seem to be anything major. I think the Yankees showed at the end of last year that they would be formidable this season and they are living up to it. I also agree that the division is theirs to lose; the Yankees are good and almost certainly legit.

- I think Boston will be fine. They got off to a slow start last season too only to turn it up in the second half and this just seems to be the kind of team they are. The Orioles do the opposite; they turn it on in the first half and fade in the second half. Price showed last night that he's perfectly fine and I think Porcello will get it together though not like last season and Sale will be fine performance wise barring injury. E-Rod hurt his knee before his start against us. I don't know if anyone else saw that, but he fell down during his bullpen warmup session before the game started and appeared to have hurt himself, but made the start anyway and we saw how that turned out. E-Rod is really good, but seems to be injury prone early on in his career. He has had a few injuries to his ankles and knees already.

- The Rays are an interesting team. I was just thinking last night that they are probably an 84-85 win team, but I am largely taking an "I'll believe it when I see it" stance with the Rays. I think they are probably a couple players away from being contenders for a wild card spot, so if they are in it come the deadline, I could see them being buyers... well, if they actually feel like spending money that is. I do think they are on the rise generally even if they are taking their time doing it.

- I just can't count Toronto out yet either not based on the last two seasons. Their rotation is still among the best in baseball if healthy. J.A. Happ will make his return from the DL on Tuesday against the Reds. Things aren't so good for Aaron Sanchez, though. He dealt with a blister all throughout ST which eventually DL'ed him and then upon his return at the end of April, he split a nail on the same finger, came back and then irritated the issue again in his start against the Orioles on May 19th. Sanchez hasn't begun throwing again since then as time is being given to let the injury fully heal up before allowing him to start throwing again.

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bundy is on pace for 230 innings.  When exactly is Buck going to start letting up on his usage?

When he gets injured again? Being (mostly) facetious, of course. Bundy is being pushed pretty hard IMO and sure, he only went five innings last night, but that was solely due to pitch count and nothing else. We're pushing Bundy because he's really the best thing this rotation has going for it, but I am concerned about this situation as the season goes on for sure.

[webbrick2010]

On ‎6‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 11:03 AM, Frobby said:

The O's and Yankees are just shy of the 1/3 mark, but the Rays and Jays are past it and the Sox are right on it, so this seems like a good time to take stock.    Who's exceeding expectations, or underperforming them, and why?   What looks sustainable and what doesn't?

The Yankees lead the division at 31-21.   They lead the AL in runs/game and are second in ERA. While Gary Sanchez (.830 OPS) was injured a while and has looked more like Jorge Posada than last year's Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge (1.107) and Aaron Hicks (1.016) have more than made up the slack.   Starlin Castro (.826) is having a career year, and Brett Gardner (.892) is in double digits in home runs less than 1/3 into the season despite having hit double digit homers only twice previously in his career.   Matt Holliday (.875) has found a fountain of youth in NY.   On the pitching side, Severino (2.94 ERA) has been outstanding, Tanaka (6.34) has been a huge disappointment, while Pineda, Montgomery and Sabathia have all been solid.    The rotation is 7th in ERA in the league.   The bullpen, as usual, has been good, though Chapman's down now with a shoulder inflammation and we don't know how serious it is.   The team save rate is only 64%, about league average, despite a better than average bullpen ERA (3.09, 4th in the league).  

Assessment:  The Yankees offense has nowhere to go but down, but it's looking formidable.   I underrated this team coming into this season and even though I think they'll cool off, they're the favorites to win the division at this point.   

The Red Sox are in third at 29-25.   They're third in runs/game (despite being dead last in homers) and 6th in ERA.   They're sort of the flip side of the Yankees, with a lot of players who had career years last year coming down to earth this year, like Mookie  Betts (.824 OPS), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.765), Sandy Leon (.657) and Rick Porcello (3-6, 4.21 ERA).   Also, consensus rookie of the year favorite Andrew Benintendi hasn't been all that (.739).   Mitch Moreland (.846) and Christian Vazquez (.845) have picked up some of the slack, and Bogaerts (.846) continues to get a little better each year.    The rotation's ERA is 4.33, 9th in the league.   Sale (2.77 ERA, 110 strikeouts) has been everything expected, but Price was on the shelf and as mentioned Porcello has been just so-so, and Wright was awful before having season ending surgery.   Kimbrell (0.75 ERA) has done a nice job as closer and Boston has the best save rate (80%) and bullpen ERA (3.06) in the division.   

Assessment:  the Sox are capable of being a bit better than they've been so far.    They'll be in the hunt at the end.    

The Rays are 29-28 and have been surprising on offense, hitting tons of homers (83 in 56 games) while leading the world in strikeouts by a wide margin (577 total, more than 10 per game).    I guess you could say they're out-Orioling the Orioles.   Logan Morrison (15), Corey Dickerson (12) and Stephen Souza, Jr. (10) lead the homer brigade and are posting OPS's of .909, .992 and .897, respectively.    They're 5th in the league in runs/game and 4th in ERA.  The starting staff has been typically good (3.71 ERA, 2nd in the league), with four under-30 starters posting ERA's under 4.00 (Odorizzi 3.14, Andriese 3.45, Archer 3.67, Cobb 3.74).   Colome has done a good job closing but overall the bullpen has been below average (59% save rate, 4.03 ERA).   

Assessment:   This is a plucky team that's actually underperformed its Pythagorean record by two games, but I don't think the offense will continue to perform this well.     The Rays may hover above .500 and stay on the fringe of wild card contention, but I think 85 wins is about their ceiling.   

The Blue Jays are 27-28, having dug most of the way out of the 1-9 hole they dug at the beginning of the year.    They've had a lot of injuries, with Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Happ, Sanchez and Liriano all spending time on the DL.    Still, the Jays' offense just isn't what it used to be (11th in runs/game), with Encarnacion gone and Bautista (.806 OPS) still dangerous but fading.  Justin Smoak (.887 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise, and Kendrys Morales (.812) is a professional hitter even if not the power threat Encarnacion was.   Donaldson has been his usual self (.926) when healthy.    But there are a lot of holes in this lineup.   The starters have been good when healthy, but  due to the injuries the rotation's ERA is 4.42, 10th in the league.   The bullpen has been shaky (14 saves, 11 blown saves) despite a decent 3.86 bullpen ERA.   Overall they're 8th in ERA.  

Assessment:  The Jays are still dangerous if they can get their rotation healthy.    

And finally, that brings us to the Orioles.  How are they doing it?   They're 9th in runs/game, 11th in ERA, and yet, in playoff position.  They started 22-10, mostly playing the AL East, and going 8-1 in one run games.   Then they turned on a dime, losing 13 of 16, including 7 consecutive one-run losses and a bunch of two run losses mixed in.   Now they've managed a 4-1 streak against NY and Boston to reach 29-24, back in second place, despite being outscored by a couple of runs on the season.    Trey Mancini (.858 OPS) has been the big surprise on offense, with Jonathan Schoop (.810) and Welington Castillo (.805) off to nice starts.   Manny Machado (.696) and  JJ Hardy (.567) are the main reasons the O's offense has been a slight disappointment overall.    The rotation has been bad overall, 13th in ERA at 4.65 and providing few IP/start as well.   Among the starters, Dylan Bundy (2.89 ERA) has been amazingly consistent, while Wade Miley (2.82) has been surprisingly effective despite walking a lot of batters and having some short outings.    Kevin Gausman (5.92) has been disappointing but shows some signs of righting the ship a little, Chris Tillman (5.87) missed 5 weeks and hasn't looked good, and Ubaldo (6.66) has pitched his way out of the rotation.   The O's have gotten nice contributions from Alec Asher and some spot starters.    The bullpen has missed Zach Britton greatly, and faltered for a couple of weeks while Brach and Givens got overused and O'Day sat out a week with an undisclosed injury, but they seem to be humming on their Zach-less cylinders now.   Their 3.93 bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, but their 68% save rate is above average,   if not quite up to their usual standards.   

Assessment:  for the O's to remain in contention, a few things will need to happen.    First, the offense will need to take things up a half-notch; we're going to need to win some games where the starters don't perform well.    Second, Gausman needs to get his act together over an extended period of time; Miley will probably fall back a bit and Bundy's a victim of his own success, on pace to throw 210+ innings, which seems impossible and perhaps unwise.    Tillman's probably not coming to the rescue and the fifth spot will need to be managed all year.   The bullpen will probably be better the rest of the way than it's been so far, and we may eke out a few wins that way.

Overall, it looks like a dogfight.    The last place Jays are one game below .500 and it's conceivable that every team in the division could be over .500 at the end of the year.    I expect a lot of twists and turns and highs and lows, and I'm looking forward to the battle.   

[Note: BB-ref was slow updating today, so all stats cited are one day out of date, even though the team records are current.]

Disagree that the Yanks are the favorite. The Red Sox were the clear pre-season pick and continue to be the strong favorite (IMHO). They just added back their third Cy Young to their rotation and their offense will be much better in the second 2/3 of the season. I think they will win the AL East by 10+ games

[spiritof66]

I said before the season started, and I still think, that the RS and BJs have the strongest teams in the division, with the Orioles and then the NYYs close behind them. The BJs' horrible start and the NYYs' very impressive play caused me to doubt that, but with the RS and BJs getting closer to full strength I'm back where I started.

And there's a very long way to go.

[eddie83]

Will the 3rd place AL East team be  the second WC again? Basically can the 3rd place team beat up the second place team from the Central and West? I think for this team that may be our ceiling.

The other divisions aren't very impressive. Comes down to Tex, Det, Minn and Seattle. Don't see CWS, KC, Oak and LAA in race. 

[Going Underground]

Injuries will play a major role. I can see Boston making a run at the top. Yankees fading a little. Pitching to me is still suspect. Rays,Jays and Orioles battling for last WC.