We are a 10th place team

[1968_bills_fan]

When I was a young kid, there were no divisions in MLB.  There was an American League and a National League and the winners of those two leagues played a World Series.    For decade and decades and for generations, fans were used to seeing an 8 (or so) team league and following the standings.  For some back-end teams, success was measured by moving up a spot or two in the standings-  from 7th to 4th was a woozer season.

Now we have 3 teams winning divisions, which are sort of a 4-5 team, season long race.  The rest of the league is striving towards a "wild card" spot and there are 15 teams competing.  The Orioles, right now, are in 10th place in a 15 team league- or you might say, are in 7th place in a 12 team league. That is the way it looks for the last third of the season.

Looking at it that way-  it strengthens my view that we are not going to go anywhere the next few years with a very fatal flaw of having only ONE  good pitcher.  It is time to dump the fading stars (Davis, Trumpo) and sell off the few blue chips (Machado, Brittan and Schoop)  in order to get the 3-4 okay-to-good pitcher candidates that we need to succeed in the 12 team league.  We should be looking at the intersection of the careers of our young good players (Mancini, Beckham, Santander, Sisco, Mullins(et.al.?), Montcastle ...) in time with the arrival of valid major league pitching. 

There is some start reality here.  Yes, Manny & Schoop are young and very good.    Keeping them will leave no money or chips for anything else.  But pitchers in involved in EVERY defensive play and if you don't have pitching, then nothing else matters.

 

[Enjoy Terror]

35 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

Looking at it that way-  it strengthens my view that we are not going to go anywhere the next few years with a very fatal flaw of having only ONE  good pitcher.

The roster changes yearly, and in particular, we won't necessarily have Tillman (FA), Ubaldo (FA), Miley ($12M team option), or Hellickson (FA) past this season. Bundy and Gausman are very good pitchers and if they sign and/or promote the correct players to fill that role, the Orioles are a competitive team for 2018. 

So please stop. You could've made this thread after the 2011 season too. Didn't stop us from going to the playoffs in 2012 and going from 69 to 93 wins. Tillman lowered his ERA by three runs, we added Hammel, Gonzalez, and Chen. Team ERA went from last (14th) to 6th.

For a dude who claims to have years of experience with this thing,  you seem to ignore recent cases that go against your sky is falling mentality. Maybe you shouldn't watch the Bills so much.

[wildcard]

Chant: We're number 10!  We're number 10!

Bundy, Gausman and Castro.   May be a good top of the rotation.  Then the O's have Jones, Mancini, Hayes, Mullins, Stewart Santander and Rifaela as outfielders,  That seven guys for 5 spots.  Looks like there could be a trade in there somewhere.   Plus Britton is probably traded at some point.  Plus some other players from the playoff team at Bowie like Scott, Ramirez and Long.

The O's may have enough talent to build a good pitching staff.

 

[1968_bills_fan]

The Orioles have been bobbing around 500 with aging rosters for the last few years.  If you haven't noticed, the Red Sox and the Yankees have rebuilt their teams and and wapping our buts in the standings.

 

You statement about the 2011 team  and situation is also a bit curious.  At that time both the Sox and Yankees were at their cusp, with aged players and were ready to go completely bust.   The Orioles were not a magically, under-performing team that suddenly did wonders, but actually "came back" because the rivals were ready to implode.   It is similar to where the Orioles are right now-  but the Orioles are NOT on top now, they are in the bottom third of the league.

What happened to those teams that the Orioles "came back" against after 2011?

In 2012, the Red Sox finished in last place, 26 games behind the leader.  Opps.

In 2013 the Yankees Orioles , finished 12 games out of first place.   Opps.

 

Please get in touch with reality.  We have a lot of good pieces right now, especially the infield. But without starting  pitching, it doesn't matter.  Outside of Bundy and Castro, I don't see that we have any starters here or in the pipeline that can compete and succeed against the yankees and red sox, nor can they overtake the 5 teams ahead of us for a friggin wild card spot.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

The Orioles have been bobbing around 500 with aging rosters for the last few years.  If you haven't noticed, the Red Sox and the Yankees have rebuilt their teams and and wapping our buts in the standings.

 

You statement about the 2011 team  and situation is also a bit curious.  At that time both the Sox and Yankees were at their cusp, with aged players and were ready to go completely bust.   The Orioles were not a magically, under-performing team that suddenly did wonders, but actually "came back" because the rivals were ready to implode.   It is similar to where the Orioles are right now-  but the Orioles are NOT on top now, they are in the bottom third of the league.

What happened to those teams that the Orioles "came back" against after 2011?

In 2012, the Red Sox finished in last place, 26 games behind the leader.  Opps.

In 2013 the Yankees Orioles , finished 12 games out of first place.   Opps.

 

Please get in touch with reality.  We have a lot of good pieces right now, especially the infield. But without starting  pitching, it doesn't matter.  Outside of Bundy and Castro, I don't see that we have any starters here or in the pipeline that can compete and succeed against the yankees and red sox, nor can they overtake the 5 teams ahead of us for a friggin wild card spot.

Every teams roster is aging.    The O's may not be a old as you think.  With Jimenez, Smith Gentry and Hardy coming off the roster this off season, O'Day may be the only player over 32.

2016 O’s by July 1st age (Current 25 man roster and DL in bold) 
* Added this past off season. ^ Added during 2016 season. #Gone after the season.

22
Sisco
Liranzo
Santander*
Castro*
Hays
Mullins
Harvey
Rafaela

23
Ramirez
Scott
Stewart
Meisinger

24
Bundy
Machado
Lee
Aquino#
Ynoa*# 
Faulkner*
Long

25
Schoop
Mancini
Asher*
Crichton*
Yacabonis*
Wotherspoon*

26
Gausman
Rickard
Hart ^
Wynns

27
Wilson#
Wright 
Givens
Verrett*#
Tejada*#
Beckham*
RRodriguez

28
Pena#

29
Tillman
Britton

30
Miley^#
Flaherty#
Castillo*
Bleier*
Pedro Alvarez#
Hellickson*#

31
Davis
Jones
Trumbo
Brach
Joseph

32
C Johnson*#

33
Jimenez#
Gentry*#

34
O’Day
Hardy(DL)
Smith*#

[1968_bills_fan]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Chant: We're number 10!  We're number 10!

Bundy, Gausman and Castro.   May be a good top of the rotation.  Then the O's have Jones, Mancini, Hayes, Mullins, Stewart Santander and Rifaela as outfielders,  That seven guys for 5 spots.  Looks like there could be a trade in there somewhere.   Plus Britton is probably traded at some point.  Plus some other players from the playoff team at Bowie like Scott, Ramirez and Long.

The O's may have enough talent to build a good pitching staff.

 

I can see Castro as an effective starter next year- but remember he also got lit up a few times this year.  Gausman, I wouldn't be sure about.   You are right,  a lucky trade (you forgot Rickard),  a magic spell for Tillman and a promotion from the minors might get us back into a come-from-behind contention.  Still it is based more on hope than reality.   

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

I can see Castro as an effective starter next year- but remember he also got lit up a few times this year.  Gausman, I wouldn't be sure about.   You are right,  a lucky trade (you forgot Rickard),  a magic spell for Tillman and a promotion from the minors might get us back into a come-from-behind contention.  Still it is based more on hope than reality.   

Gausman is too talented not to figure it out at some point.  I would not give up on him.  The elements  are there to trade for some additional starting talent.  Just have to see what  Dan makes out of it.

[1968_bills_fan]

Well, yes there are more young guy with some quality, than I was aware of. But how to solve the starting pitching problem without trading out a star?    Here is the ranking of starting pitching in the AL.  We play most of our games against the AL east and compete for the division lead with them.  That is our weakness and we can't be fighting from the bottom of a hole.

#1    Red Sox    era= 3.62

#3  Yankees    era 3.82

#4  Tampa   era  4.08

.....

.....

#14    Orioles   era 4.92

 

Ouch

 

[mdbdotcom]

If Hays and Sisco can be expected to step up, we really won't need to look for any starting position players in the off-season (assuming Beckham is the starting SS) for the first time in quite a while.

That means all our efforts can be spent on bringing in 2 starters, a #1 and a #4, with Gausman and Bundy in the #2 & #3 slots. If Tillman, Miley and Ubaldo come off the books, we will have a good bit of money to spend on that pitching. Perhaps there will be a free agent who would consider pitching in OPACY this off-season, or maybe we can make a deal (what we would offer, I don't know). It just strikes me that we could have a very manageable off-season with very well-defined goals this year. Maybe we can get the pitching upgrade we need.

[panick]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If Hays and Sisco can be expected to step up, we really won't need to look for any starting position players in the off-season (assuming Beckham is the starting SS) for the first time in quite a while.

That means all our efforts can be spent on bringing in 2 starters, a #1 and a #4, with Gausman and Bundy in the #2 & #3 slots. If Tillman, Miley and Ubaldo come off the books, we will have a good bit of money to spend on that pitching. Perhaps there will be a free agent who would consider pitching in OPACY this off-season, or maybe we can make a deal (what we would offer, I don't know). It just strikes me that we could have a very manageable off-season with very well-defined goals this year. Maybe we can get the pitching upgrade we need.

Who would the free agent pitcher be pitching against in the off-season?

Duquette has had very well-defined goals every year. Take a Rule 5 pick who will undeservedly take a roster spot, sign a bunch of guys from independent leagues, and wait until spring training to overpay a mediocre at best pitcher who was shunned by all the other teams. Duquette just doesn't sit on his hands between seasons, you know. 

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

Well, yes there are more young guy with some quality, than I was aware of. But how to solve the starting pitching problem without trading out a star?    Here is the ranking of starting pitching in the AL.  We play most of our games against the AL east and compete for the division lead with them.  That is our weakness and we can't be fighting from the bottom of a hole.

#1    Red Sox    era= 3.62

#3  Yankees    era 3.82

#4  Tampa   era  4.08

.....

.....

#14    Orioles   era 4.92

 

Ouch

 

No question.  The starting pitching needs to be fixed this off season.  But I think the elements are there to do it.   I don't think the O's will add high profile. expensively starters.    I think they will look for pitchers in their mid to late 20s that fit that are like Hammel, Gonzalez and Chen when they were acquired.

[LookitsPuck]

Poor rotations have been a hallmark of the Duquette era save for *1* year. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Poor rotations have been a hallmark of the Duquette era save for *1* year. 

In his defense they were also the hallmark for the decade or so prior to his arrival.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, panick said:

Who would the free agent pitcher be pitching against in the off-season?

Duquette has had very well-defined goals every year. Take a Rule 5 pick who will undeservedly take a roster spot, sign a bunch of guys from independent leagues, and wait until spring training to overpay a mediocre at best pitcher who was shunned by all the other teams. Duquette just doesn't sit on his hands between seasons, you know. 

Chen was signed a free agent on Jan 10

Hammel was traded for on Feb 6

Miguel Gonzalez was signed on March 4th.

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In his defense they were also the hallmark for the decade or so prior to his arrival.

Oh, of course. But he's had 6 years to at least put together a competent rotation. 

There have been a lot of swings and misses since the 2014 squad (Tillman, Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Norris, Gausman).

We actually haven't seen any smart/competent starting pitching acquisitions or trades since then. Essentially 3 full seasons of mediocrity (and worse).