Eyeballing the 52 starting pitchers with ERA's better than any of our starters

[Frobby]

So, by my count there are 52 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings and have a lower ERA than any starter on our team.    That is almost 2 pitchers per team. (FWIW, 32 of the 52 are on pace to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.)   Where are these guys from?

17 come from the first round of the draft:  Strasburg (1 overall), Cole (1), Verlander (2), Pomeranz (5), Greinke (6), Kershaw (7), Nola (7), Freeland (8), Leake (8), Scherzer (11), Sale (13), Hamels (17), Gray (18), Cashner (19), Wacha (19), Sabathia (20), and Stroman (22).

7 come from the 1st round supplemental: Berrios (32), Gio Gonzalez (35), Montgomery (36), Lynn (39), McCullers (41),  Walker (43), and Fulmer (44).

12 come from the 2nd-5th rounds: Nelson (64), Wood (85), Happ (92), Morton (95), Duffy (96), Cobb (109), Hill (112), Paxton (132), Kluber (134), Clevinger (135), Arrieta (159) and Archer (161).

9 were drafted after the 5th round: Keuchel (221), Hendricks (264), Anderson (276), Godley (288), DeGrom (272), Ray (356), Straily (723), Davies (785) and Peacock (1231).

That leaves 7 foreign-born pitchers who weren't subject to the draft: Severino, C. Martinez, Carrasco, Santana, Ryu, Urena and Chacin.    I'm a bit surprised the number was this low.

Age-wise, 27 of the 52 have not reached their 29th birthday.    Seven of these pitchers are younger than Bundy: Severino, Berrios and McCullers are 23, while Davies, Nola, Fulmer and Freeland are all 24 but a little younger than Bundy, who turns 25 in November.  Another seven are younger than Gausman: Ray, Martinez and Walker are 25, whereas Wood, Stroman, Urena, and Wacha are all 26 but a bit younger than Gausman, who turns 27 in January.    Eight of the pitchers are older than Ubaldo: Sabathia (37), Hill (37), Santana (34), Happ (34), Verlander (34), Greinke (33), Morton (33) and Hamels (33) (Ubaldo turns 34 in January).     

I'd like to think that Bundy and Gausman can move past many of the pitchers on this list next year, and hopefully we can find another pitcher who might put up an average or better performance.    

[eddie83]

So around 45% come from the top 45. And 33% from the first round. Where a Harvey could really help us. 

The International numbers surprise me as well. 

Just highlights you need to hit on your top pitching picks. Under Dan, Gausman, Harvey- looks good but health issues. Sedlock- not looking good. Hall-has promise. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So around 45% come from the top 45. And 33% from the first round. Where a Harvey could really help us. 

The International numbers surprise me as well. 

Just highlights you need to hit on your top pitching picks. Under Dan, Gausman, Harvey- looks good but health issues. Sedlock- not looking good. Hall-has promise. 

The other thing I was thinking about is: if you think about how many pitchers are selected in the first round of the draft, the percentage that become above average starters is pretty minuscule.    Roughly half the first round and supplemental picks are spent on pitchers.     If you figure they have about a ten-year window of opportunity in the majors, that means it takes 150 pitchers drafted in the first round to produce those 17 first round guys who were above average this season.    And maybe another 60 guys drafted 1S to produce the other 7.     Basically, if you pick a pitcher 1 or 1s, there's about a one in eight chance they'll actually be an above average starting pitcher.    

Now, that math may be a little off, because I'm looking just at this season and there are undoubtedly pitchers who were above average last year or the year before who aren't this year (e.g. Tillman).     On the other hand, you could say that lots of pitchers have one or two above average years even though they're not really above average starting pitchers.     But I think aside from the exact math, the overall point is that the pitchers who become above average are a small minority, even out of the first round pool.    Heck, only three of these pitchers were drafted in the top five, out of maybe 25 guys who were drafted that high.     So while it's frustrating when the Hobgoods and Matuszes don't produce, and the Gausmans and Bundys don't reach the level you hope for (at least, not yet), it's good to remember just how tough the odds really are.   And the odds are even longer in the lower rounds.    

[tntoriole]

Very good information!!!  Thanks much!!   It also goes to show how sometimes it is just luck.   I mean when the Indians get a Kluber at 134 and then a Clevinger at 135, well that is just dumb luck.    Hitting on just one of a guy like a Keuchel at 221 sets a team up for many years.    But it is all just dumb luck at that point.