Farm system could rank in the top 15 after this season

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not sure what top 30 list you mean, but Mancini was in the BA top 10 for the Orioles in each of the last two years.

The top 100 lists are always going to miss guys.    Remember that such a list covers prospects all the way from just-drafted to major league ready, including kids drafted out of high school and kids who come from Latin America, etc.   Therefore, I'd say a player on the top 100 list should be expected to be one of the top 20-25 players, long term, from the year they reached the majors.     The cutoff for that is somewhere around 10 WAR (at the end of the player's career).    Will Mancini reach that?    Maybe, and he's off to a good start, but a lot of guys who have a good start like him still don't make that threshold.   

I meant Top 100.   I think you are right.  Really good players do get missed.   So though the Top 100 list is interesting, its not a real good way to evaluate a minor league system. 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I meant Top 100.   I think you are right.  Really good players do get missed.   So though the Top 100 list is interesting, its not a real good way to evaluate a minor league system. 

It's clearly just one indicator.    Remember that about 200-260 players debut in the majors every year, about 7-9 players per team.   Probably only a quarter of them were ever on a top 100 list at any time.    So, top 100 tells you something about the very top talent in a system, but doesn't tell you much about the depth of the system.   

FWIW, the O's debuted eight players this year: Crichton, Hays, R. Rodriguz, Santander, Scott, Sisco, Washington and Yacobonis.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It's clearly just one indicator.    Remember that about 200-260 players debut in the majors every year, about 7-9 players per team.   Probably only a quarter of them were ever on a top 100 list at any time.    So, top 100 tells you something about the very top talent in a system, but doesn't tell you much about the depth of the system.   

FWIW, the O's debuted eight players this year: Crichton, Hays, R. Rodriguz, Santander, Scott, Sisco, Washington and Yacobonis.

I think the difference makers are the rookies that get significant  playing time like Mancini.  Debuts don't mean that much when looking at the whole season.

[flyhighbirds]

Don't get yourselves too excited about these prospects.     Duquette will trade them all away in a fruitless attempt to make the playoffs.

 

 

 

[thezeroes]

2 minutes ago, flyhighbirds said:

Don't get yourselves too excited about these prospects.     Duquette will trade them all away in a fruitless attempt to make the playoffs.

 

 

 

Way to go negative in a positive thread.  Thanks.

[Jagwar]

35 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

Way to go negative in a positive thread.  Thanks.

Unfortunately, he might be correct.