So, how common are home-drafted 10-game winners?

[Frobby]

In another thread, glenn_davis pointed out how few times post-Mussina the Orioles had a pitcher they drafted win 10+ games for them in a season.  There have only been seven pitchers drafted by the O’s since Mussina who have won 10+ games for them in a year, and they’ve only done it 9 times total.   Bundy and Bedard did it twice, Coppinger, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Gausman once each.

Putting aside the whole “wins are a lousy statistic” issue, it got me to wondering how common it is for a home-drafted pitcher to win 10+ games, and how bad the O’s performance really was compared to other teams.   So I looked at it two ways: (1) doing the same analysis for the other AL East teams over the same time period, and (2) looking at how many home-grown 10-game winners there were in MLB in 2017.

First, the other AL East teams:

Boston:  The Red Sox have only had three home-grown 10-game winners since Mussina was drafted, but they did it 11 times: Lester (7), Buchholz (3), Sele (1). 

New York:  The Yankees only drafted three pitchers who won 10 games in a season for them since  Mussina, and they did it only four times: Hughes did it twice and Kamieniecky and Hitchcock once each.

Tampa:  Despite giving every other AL team a multi-year head start, the Rays have drafted 8 pitchers who won 10+ for them, and they’ve done it an AL East-high 27 times:  Shields 6, Price 6, Cobb 4, Niemann 3, Hellickson 3, Davis 2, Moore 2, Sonnanstine 1.   In both 2011 and 2012, the Rays had five starters accomplish the feat, and that included six different pitchers over the two years.   The total of 27 is all the more remarkable when you consider that they had no home-grown 10-game winners from their debut in 1998 through 2006, and they’ve had none the last three seasons.    So they had 27 such seasons in an 8-year window.

Toronto:   The Blue Jays lead the AL East pack by drafting ten pitchers who won 10 games for them since Mussina was drafted, and they’ve done it a total of 23 times:  Halladay (7), Carpenter (3), Romero (3), Marcum (2), Hutchison (2), Stroman (2), and one each for McGowan, Litsch, Cecil and Sanchez.

2017:  Looking at this past year is fairly instructive.   There were 75 10-game winners in MLB, but only 20 were drafted by the team they play for:  Kershaw, DeGrom, Verlander (who won 10 for the Tigers before being traded), Strasburg, Berrios, Keuchel, Bundy, Stroman, G. Cole, Nola, Cobb, Gibson, Wacha, Nelson, Paxton, Gausman, Freeland, Tomlin and J. Gray.    Here’s a further breakdown of the 75:

Played for the team that drafted them:  20 (incl. Verlander)

Acquired via trade: 27

Acquired via free agency: 14

International players playing for the team that originally signed them: 12

Picked up on waivers: 1

(Actually, I missed one in my tally, but you get the idea)

A few observations about all this:

1.   Although the Orioles look pretty terrible, remember that the cutoff date was deliberately set to omit Mussina, who won 10+ games nine times for us.    You only pick up a stud like that once in a blue moon, so starting the relevant period right after it happens kind of skews the picture.    (Note: Andy Pettitte was drafted the same year as Mussina and won 10+ games 15 times for the Yankees.)

2.    Considering that there are only 20 home-drafted pitchers among the 30 major league teams who won 10+ games in 2017, it’s rare for the O’s to have two of them in Gausman and Bundy.   They’re under control for quite some time and hopefully can add to our totals.   

3.   Quite a few of the 27 pitchers acquired by trade were acquired pretty early in their careers — like Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies and Parker Bridwell.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

You wrote "Matusz" twice in the list of pitchers who won 10+ games for the Orioles.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

You wrote "Matusz" twice in the list of pitchers who won 10+ games for the Orioles.

Thanks.   Should’ve said Britton.    I’ve fixed it.  

[bird watcher]

I'd guess the Orioles and Rays have given more homegrown pitchers opportunities than the Yankees or Redsox (who have preferred more expensive bought rotations).  If true it says more about those teams unwillingness to take the risk of a rookie when they can just go buy a known commodity than it does their ability or lack there of to draft/produce quality homegrown.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Has anyone considered stealing some of the people that have been responsible for scouting and/or developing pitchers for Tampa Bay in the past?

[bobmc]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

In another thread, glenn_davis pointed out how few times post-Mussina the Orioles had a pitcher they drafted win 10+ games for them in a season.  There have only been seven pitchers drafted by the O’s since Mussina who have won 10+ games for them in a year, and they’ve only done it 9 times total.   Bundy and Bedard did it twice, Coppinger, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Gausman once each.

Putting aside the whole “wins are a lousy statistic” issue, it got me to wondering how common it is for a home-drafted pitcher to win 10+ games, and how bad the O’s performance really was compared to other teams.   So I looked at it two ways: (1) doing the same analysis for the other AL East teams over the same time period, and (2) looking at how many home-grown 10-game winners there were in MLB in 2017.

First, the other AL East teams:

Boston:  The Red Sox have only had three home-grown 10-game winners since Mussina was drafted, but they did it 11 times: Lester (7), Buchholz (3), Sele (1). 

New York:  The Yankees only drafted three pitchers who won 10 games in a season for them since  Mussina, and they did it only four times: Hughes did it twice and Kamieniecky and Hitchcock once each.

Tampa:  Despite giving every other AL team a multi-year head start, the Rays have drafted 8 pitchers who won 10+ for them, and they’ve done it an AL East-high 27 times:  Shields 6, Price 6, Cobb 4, Niemann 3, Hellickson 3, Davis 2, Moore 2, Sonnanstine 1.   In both 2011 and 2012, the Rays had five starters accomplish the feat, and that included six different pitchers over the two years.   The total of 27 is all the more remarkable when you consider that they had no home-grown 10-game winners from their debut in 1998 through 2006, and they’ve had none the last three seasons.    So they had 27 such seasons in an 8-year window.

Toronto:   The Blue Jays lead the AL East pack by drafting ten pitchers who won 10 games for them since Mussina was drafted, and they’ve done it a total of 23 times:  Halladay (7), Carpenter (3), Romero (3), Marcum (2), Hutchison (2), Stroman (2), and one each for McGowan, Litsch, Cecil and Sanchez.

2017:  Looking at this past year is fairly instructive.   There were 75 10-game winners in MLB, but only 20 were drafted by the team they play for:  Kershaw, DeGrom, Verlander (who won 10 for the Tigers before being traded), Strasburg, Berrios, Keuchel, Bundy, Stroman, G. Cole, Nola, Cobb, Gibson, Wacha, Nelson, Paxton, Gausman, Freeland, Tomlin and J. Gray.    Here’s a further breakdown of the 75:

Played for the team that drafted them:  20 (incl. Verlander)

Acquired via trade: 27

Acquired via free agency: 14

International players playing for the team that originally signed them: 12

Picked up on waivers: 1

(Actually, I missed one in my tally, but you get the idea)

A few observations about all this:

1.   Although the Orioles look pretty terrible, remember that the cutoff date was deliberately set to omit Mussina, who won 10+ games nine times for us.    You only pick up a stud like that once in a blue moon, so starting the relevant period right after it happens kind of skews the picture.    (Note: Andy Pettitte was drafted the same year as Mussina and won 10+ games 15 times for the Yankees.)

2.    Considering that there are only 20 home-drafted pitchers among the 30 major league teams who won 10+ games in 2017, it’s rare for the O’s to have two of them in Gausman and Bundy.   They’re under control for quite some time and hopefully can add to our totals.   

3.   Quite a few of the 27 pitchers acquired by trade were acquired pretty early in their careers — like Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies and Parker Bridwell.

Great stuff for us yearning for any news meaningful to the wOH are us crewe!  And you sated the needs of those who mourn and berate the decisions to "give away" the likes of Bridwell and Davies.  That being said, I agree with BW above.  Why gamble when you can just go out and buy whatevuh you need?  Go O's!  Lie in the weeds!

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, bird watcher said:

I'd guess the Orioles and Rays have given more homegrown pitchers opportunities than the Yankees or Redsox (who have preferred more expensive bought rotations).  If true it says more about those teams unwillingness to take the risk of a rookie when they can just go buy a known commodity than it does their ability or lack there of to draft/produce quality homegrown.

I agree with this.   And of course, the Yankees and Red Sox have had fewer high draft picks than the other AL East teams.

[OFFNY]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

In another thread, glenn_davis pointed out how few times post-Mussina the Orioles had a pitcher they drafted win 10+ games for them in a season.  There have only been seven pitchers drafted by the O’s since Mussina who have won 10+ games for them in a year, and they’ve only done it 9 times total.   Bundy and Bedard did it twice, Coppinger, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Gausman once each.

Putting aside the whole “wins are a lousy statistic” issue, it got me to wondering how common it is for a home-drafted pitcher to win 10+ games, and how bad the O’s performance really was compared to other teams.   So I looked at it two ways: (1) doing the same analysis for the other AL East teams over the same time period, and (2) looking at how many home-grown 10-game winners there were in MLB in 2017.

First, the other AL East teams:

Boston:  The Red Sox have only had three home-grown 10-game winners since Mussina was drafted, but they did it 11 times: Lester (7), Buchholz (3), Sele (1). 

New York:  The Yankees only drafted three pitchers who won 10 games in a season for them since  Mussina, and they did it only four times: Hughes did it twice and Kamieniecky and Hitchcock once each.

Tampa:  Despite giving every other AL team a multi-year head start, the Rays have drafted 8 pitchers who won 10+ for them, and they’ve done it an AL East-high 27 times:  Shields 6, Price 6, Cobb 4, Niemann 3, Hellickson 3, Davis 2, Moore 2, Sonnanstine 1.   In both 2011 and 2012, the Rays had five starters accomplish the feat, and that included six different pitchers over the two years.   The total of 27 is all the more remarkable when you consider that they had no home-grown 10-game winners from their debut in 1998 through 2006, and they’ve had none the last three seasons.    So they had 27 such seasons in an 8-year window.

Toronto:   The Blue Jays lead the AL East pack by drafting ten pitchers who won 10 games for them since Mussina was drafted, and they’ve done it a total of 23 times:  Halladay (7), Carpenter (3), Romero (3), Marcum (2), Hutchison (2), Stroman (2), and one each for McGowan, Litsch, Cecil and Sanchez.

2017:  Looking at this past year is fairly instructive.   There were 75 10-game winners in MLB, but only 20 were drafted by the team they play for:  Kershaw, DeGrom, Verlander (who won 10 for the Tigers before being traded), Strasburg, Berrios, Keuchel, Bundy, Stroman, G. Cole, Nola, Cobb, Gibson, Wacha, Nelson, Paxton, Gausman, Freeland, Tomlin and J. Gray.    Here’s a further breakdown of the 75:

Played for the team that drafted them:  20 (incl. Verlander)

Acquired via trade: 27

Acquired via free agency: 14

International players playing for the team that originally signed them: 12

Picked up on waivers: 1

(Actually, I missed one in my tally, but you get the idea)

A few observations about all this:

1.   Although the Orioles look pretty terrible, remember that the cutoff date was deliberately set to omit Mussina, who won 10+ games nine times for us.    You only pick up a stud like that once in a blue moon, so starting the relevant period right after it happens kind of skews the picture.    (Note: Andy Pettitte was drafted the same year as Mussina and won 10+ games 15 times for the Yankees.)

2.    Considering that there are only 20 home-drafted pitchers among the 30 major league teams who won 10+ games in 2017, it’s rare for the O’s to have two of them in Gausman and Bundy.   They’re under control for quite some time and hopefully can add to our totals.   

3.   Quite a few of the 27 pitchers acquired by trade were acquired pretty early in their careers — like Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies and Parker Bridwell.

 

o

 

My, how much the game has changed since the Orioles became the 2nd team ever to have four 20-game winners in 1971.

The 2014 Orioles had four 10-game winners (Chen won 16, Norris won 15, Tillman won 13, and Gonzalez won 10) ........ and they were one of the best teams in baseball.

Somebody started a thread in August of that season to note that the Orioles had had three 10-game winners. After that thread was started, Miguel Gonzalez won his 10 game of the season to make it 4 overall.

 

 

 

 

o

[pastorfan]

On 11/19/2017 at 3:06 AM, Frobby said:

Thanks.   Should’ve said Britton.    I’ve fixed it.  

We have Zach Davies and Arrieta. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

We have Zach Davies and Arrieta. 

I mentioned Arrieta.    Davies doesn’t count, as he didn’t win 10 games for us while he was here.   

[NCRaven]

On 11/18/2017 at 11:34 PM, Frobby said:

3.   Quite a few of the 27 pitchers acquired by trade were acquired pretty early in their careers — like Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies and Parker Bridwell.

Small quibble.  Jake was traded in 2013 and was 27 years old at the time.  He'd pitched in at least 18 games (starting nearly all) for the O's in each of 2010, 2011, and 2012, and five more in 2013 before he was traded.  So it was hardly early in his career.

Davies and Bridwell, absolutely true.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Small quibble.  Jake was traded in 2013 and was 27 years old at the time.  He'd pitched in at least 18 games (starting nearly all) for the O's in each of 2010, 2011, and 2012, and five more in 2013 before he was traded.  So it was hardly early in his career.

He certainly wasn’t as young or inexperienced as the other two.   I guess what I meant was he hadn’t reached the point where he was a proven commodity, unlike the pitcher for whom he was traded.

[NCRaven]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He certainly wasn’t as young or inexperienced as the other two.   I guess what I meant was he hadn’t reached the point where he was a proven commodity, unlike the pitcher for whom he was traded.

Agreed.  I guess Arrieta has always been a burr under my saddle.  I think that his situation was like Schilling, in a way.  Both were head cases to a certain extent (Schilling certainly more so) that had to get a fire lit under them to reach their potential.

I remember reading that one of the "Cavalry" had questioned Jim Palmer's career saying something like "his stats weren't all that great."  I don't think it ever came out who said it, but I always figured it was Matusz or Arrieta.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Agreed.  I guess Arrieta has always been a burr under my saddle.  I think that his situation was like Schilling, in a way.  Both were head cases to a certain extent (Schilling certainly more so) that had to get a fire lit under them to reach their potential.

I remember reading that one of the "Cavalry" had questioned Jim Palmer's career saying something like "his stats weren't all that great."  I don't think it ever came out who said it, but I always figured it was Matusz or Arrieta.

To be honest, Jim Palmers stats dont compare with other HOF pitchers. Some has said, if it hadn't been such a great defensive team, he wouldn't be in the HOF.

Palmer's career WAR is 68.1 for 19 seasons, and yes, he won the CY Young on 3 occasions against worthy competitors.

Mussina's career WAR is 82.7 for 18 seasons just as a brief comparison.

I believe 73 career WAR is "one" of the current criteria for HOF worthiness.

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

To be honest, Jim Palmers stats dont compare with other HOF pitchers. Some has said, if it hadn't been such a great defensive team, he wouldn't be in the HOF.

Palmer's career WAR is 68.1 for 19 seasons, and yes, he won the CY Young on 3 occasions against worthy competitors.

Mussina's career WAR is 82.7 for 18 seasons just as a brief comparison.

I believe 73 career WAR is "one" of the current criteria for HOF worthiness.

 

If Jim Palmer’s not a Hall of Famer, they may as well abolish the institution.    I’m not saying he didn’t benefit from having a great defense behind him, but he was a spectacular pitcher with many great accomplishments aside from his WAR totals.