Rule 5 Target(s) - A pair of Twins

[Luke-OH]

4th edition of this little series.  I went looking for left handed relief options, but didn't find anything exciting.  Travis Ott is an interesting arm, but he's more of a stash guy, since he hasn't pitched above High A.  He'd be a target of mine if the Orioles traded assets and tried to rebuild.

So after failing to find interesting lefties, I turned my attention to RH relievers.  I found a few of interest and two of those happened to play for the Twins.

First up...

Nick Burdi - RHP

I'm not going to do an in-depth scouting report here because there is a lot of information on him out there.  Here are links to John Sickels's write up and Eric Longenhagen's write up, both going into 2017.  Basically, he throws his fastball in the high 90s to triples digits with some movement and life.  He also has a slider that is plus with flashes of plus-plus.  He's had Tanner Scott type control issues, but he looked to have greatly improved in that category in spring training and the 17 innings he pitched in 2017.  So why would a guy like this with elite closer stuff get left unprotected, well, he had TJS in May.  So he won't be ready to pitch until late 2018 at the earliest.  

The question you have to ask yourself with Burdi, is whether he is worth taking up the last spot on the 40 man roster in order to acquire him.  He'll be on the DL all year pretty much so no need to carry him this year, he'll have to get active roster time in 2019 (Similar to the Santander situation this year).  I'd argue that someone with his potential is worth the last spot on the 40 man roster over some depth signing or the Chris Lees of the world.  If he recovers well from TJS, then you have a ready made set-up/closer option in 2019.

Second...

Luke Bard - RHP

Bard has lost time to various injuries, he had surgery in 2014 to do a “latisimus reattachment and a teres major reattachment.”.  It was so bad, the doctor was surprised he could even throw at all.  All in all he pitched just 19 total innings his first 3 years in the minors.  The last three years though he's been pretty healthy throwing 52, 64, and 65 innings in relief.  He was solid each of those seasons but his stuff and results really took a step forward in 2017.  He struck out over 34% of all batters he faced between AA and AAA.  He also induced infield fly balls at an usually high rate (pretty much as good as a strikeout).  All told, nearly half of the batters he faced either struck out or popped out.

Short Scouting report - Bard is a tall, lean RHP who has a simple reliever's delivery.  He gets good extension and has good arm speed, with a consistent release point on his two pitches (fastball and slider).  The fastball is fairly flat 93-96mph, with some downward plane, he can manipulate it though and give it some arm side run in exchange for some velocity (not sure if this is a different pitch 2 seamer?).  He also has a slider that is above average, but plays better than that due to his feel for it and ability to throw it in any count.  It misses a lot of bats and he can manipulate the shape and speed of it to great effect.

Basically Bard is your standard two-pitch reliever with two above average pitches and above average command.  He also has a great feel for pitching, he is fearless and he knows how attack hitters.

[backwardsk]

Love these threads.  Burdi makes a lot of sense.  Currently we have 5 or 6 slots open.  But we may end up adding 1-3 as Wright, Ynoa, and Asher can't be sent down.  I believe.

[Luke-OH]

26 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Love these threads.  Burdi makes a lot of sense.  Currently we have 5 or 6 slots open.  But we may end up adding 1-3 as Wright, Ynoa, and Asher can't be sent down.  I believe.

Burdi has big upside and the only cost is 100k and a 40 man spot this year.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Burdi has big upside and the only cost is 100k and a 40 man spot this year.

So if he falls into the group that doesn't come back from TJ then the O's lose a 40 man roster spot for a majority of the season.  Or if his command takes a step back they will have to deal with him walking the world on the ML roster.

Those don't sound like appealing scenarios to me.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Bah!  Humbug!    Oh Lord!    If we keep Burdi on the DL all year we don't get to use a spot for the likes of Paul Fry, Stefan Crichton, and the like?     If Tanner Scott went down with T.J. surgery tomorrow, the O's wouldn't dump him from the 40 man.   They'd wait and see what they had when he came back.

If he comes back and can't find the plate, you release him.  Big deal.    He'll still get rehab time in the minors to see if the stuff and control are there.   It's a good idea.  Surprised you want to rain on the parade.   

You are surprised that I'm risk adverse?  You pay less attention to voices other than your own than I thought.

[Aristotelian]

I like Bard's 13.6 K/9 and 4.13 K/BB. Do we have anyone in our system with numbers like that? Healthy out of the box. I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do and cutting him loose if he doesn't perform. 

[Luke-OH]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hey!    You don't have much to lose but I see a guy who was 26 years old in AA and still managed to give up 50 hits in 52 innings and a 1.338 WHIP.    The strikeouts are nice but he's probably got a breaking ball AA hitters chase and a straight fastball.   

He lost 3 years to major injuries. He has 1st round pedigree and he pitches like a guy who has nothing stuff (even though he has major league stuff). I’ll admit older guys are always crapshoots as to how they’ll handle major league competition, but he’s one of the better options in the rule 5 draft.

As far as the hits allowed, he had a .390+ BABIP which is unlucky even for a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact. The highest BABIP in the majors in 2017 (for pitchers with 50+ innings) was .378.  He had one of the highest IFFB rates in the upper minors as well (which usually have a BABIP of near zero).  

So even with the BABIP misfortune (or bad defense) he still managed an ERA under 3.  

[ArtVanDelay]

4 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Burdi has big upside and the only cost is 100k and a 40 man spot this year.

Can’t he be put on the 60 day DL?

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Can’t he be put on the 60 day DL?

Yeah, I forgot that pulls you off the 40. So even better it’d only cost a 40 man spot during the offseason.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

Yeah, I forgot that pulls you off the 40. So even better it’d only cost a 40 man spot during the offseason.

This is the way that DD gets his rule 5 guy this year. 

[Frobby]

On 11/27/2017 at 6:28 PM, phillyOs119 said:

4th edition of this little series.  I went looking for left handed relief options, but didn't find anything exciting.  Travis Ott is an interesting arm, but he's more of a stash guy, since he hasn't pitched above High A.  He'd be a target of mine if the Orioles traded assets and tried to rebuild.

Eric Longenhagen mentioned Ott as a possible Rule 5 guy in his chat today.   

[Luke-OH]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Eric Longenhagen mentioned Ott as a possible Rule 5 guy in his chat today.   

Not surprised, he’d be a good get for a rebuilding team. 

Other guys I’d be all over if the O’s could stash guys.

Franmil Reyes

Wes Rogers

Carlos Tocci

 

[Ruzious]

On 11/27/2017 at 9:34 PM, Can_of_corn said:

You are surprised that I'm risk adverse?  You pay less attention to voices other than your own than I thought.

But what risk?  That we can't keep a guy like Crichton or Yac or Asher?  Burdi's got a 100 MPH fastball and plus plus slider.  Minny's #12 prospect.  I'd pick him if he's available.    

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

But what risk?  That we can't keep a guy like Crichton or Yac or Asher?  Burdi's got a 100 MPH fastball and plus plus slider.  Minny's #12 prospect.  I'd pick him if he's available.    

Didn't the O's almost lose a 5.9 Win season because of a 40 man roster crunch?

Now admittedly that would be a worst case scenario but that roster slot does have value.

TJ surgery isn't quite the sure thing folks make it out to be and as I said before I wouldn't be shocked to find that his command issues resurface when he returns. 

[weams]

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Rob Kaminsky.  Cleveland.  Former 1st round pick by Cardinals.  DD loves #1’s.  Left handed. Injuries have slowed progress.  60 curveball. Good control.  Potential to be starter in 2019. 

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