Why you are feeling so down about the Orioles

[OldNewGuy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've heard whispers that he may have lost some within the clubhouse. I don't have that verified through multiple sources though so take that with a grain of salt.
 

Last September, 7-21. Last 23, 4-19. Manny and Schoop OPS around 590. With bad pitching and and few others hitting well, maybe the grind it out message was falling on deaf ears.

[24fps]

41 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If hitting coaches could change players they would make $25M plus a year. 

If that were true then they would probably be crapped on to the same extent as schoolteachers, but I totally support the sentiment with apologies in advance for the cynicism.

[baltfan]

We also have only one guy close in the minors that knows how to walk and his name isn’t Hays. 

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I do not want Buck in the front office next year.  I think if DD was able to operate without Brady and Buck weighing in the Orioles would be a better team today.  

I don't think people realize how bad that Toronto situation (2014-15 offseason) screwed up everything positive we had going. It caused Duquette to lose a lot of power and created the current situation. 

Think about it. We didn't resign Cruz who was a tremendous influence in the clubhouse, particularly with the Hispanic players, and we really didn't do much that offseason. From what i heard, part of it was the fact that Duquette had lost so much influence with Angelos because of his desire to take the Toronto job. Angelos, and from what I understand Buck, felt Duquette wasn't loyal. 

But let's look at that winter a little closer. We lost not only Cruz, but the best relief pitcher we had (Miller) and Markakis. 

The Orioles basically didn't replace any of them until January 27th when they trade for Travis Snider to be Markakis' replacement. That's about it when it came to any signicant moves.

How do you go from having one of the best teams in baseball to letting three good players go and replace them with Travis Snider? Something was amiss.

Let's jump to 2015. Duquette, in a feable attempt to win (probably to try and regain some influence) trades Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra, mainly because RF was a disaster because they didn't resign Markakis.

Now let's go to the 2015-16 offseason and see where Buck/Brady start to have more influence on moves.  

Wei-Yin Chen granted Free Agency.

Chris Davis granted Free Agency.

Darren O'Day granted Free Agency.

Gerardo Parra granted Free Agency.

Steve Pearce granted Free Agency.

Matt Wieters granted Free Agency.

So after struggling in 2015, the Orioles can't afford to lose Davis and O'day a year after they lost Cruz and Miller (the two guys they should have resigned) especially because they are Buck guys. Duquette reportedly was fine with letting Davis go, but Buck stepped in and ensured he was resigned.

Duquette then takes a chance and thinks he'll get draft pick for Wieters by giving him the 1yr/$16 million, but Wieters/Boros smartly take the one year offer knowing they were not going to get that kind of money coming off the year he had with the injuries.

So now the Orioles are stuck with an expensive Wieters, and give Davis and O'[day the money they should have given Cruz and Miller.

Almost all of this can be traced back to the 2014 offseason and the Toronto situation with Duquette. Basically the Toronto situation was a major cause in the Orioles dysfunctional chain of command situation, why the team is stuck with the Davis contract, and why this team has not even sniffed the same kind of success it had in 2014.

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Almost all of this can be traced back to the 2014 offseason and the Toronto situation with Duquette. Basically the Toronto situation was a major cause in the Orioles dysfunctional chain of command situation, why the team is stuck with the Davis contract, and why this team has not even sniffed the same kind of success it had in 2014.

I did not buy that narrative at the time but looking back it's kinda hard to deny. We had a real good chance to bring back a good team in 2015 and blew it, and it hasn't been the same since. 

This year, Angelos should have bought out DD and brought in somebody to do the rebuild. Now we are set back a year or more since we can't get anything for Britton any more and might get stuck with just a draft pick for Manny. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I know it’s not standard baseball thought process, but I would’ve rebuilt after the 2016 play in game loss to the Blue Jays. Britton and Machado deals could have completely reloaded the organization with top end talent.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

He doesn't get a pass like he's some 1940s manager who just gets players and has to just use them.

Reading this, I imagined that managers of the 40's had more job security than current managers. I don't know how much pull Connie Mack had in Philly when he was allowed to keep coming back; he managed the A's to four 99+ loss seasons during that decade. But he managed that team for 50 years, so he is the exception to the rule. Here are the number of managers each franchise had in the 1940's.

Browns.       4
Red Sox.      2
Braves.        4
White Sox.  3
Cubs           5
Indians.       3
Reds           4
Tigers.         3
Dodgers.      4
MFY.             5
Athletics.     1
Pirates.        4
Cardinals.    4
Senators.     3
Phillies        7
Giants.         3

A little back of the napkin math: 59 managers divided by 16 franchises equals 3.6875 managers per franchise. That translates to an average tenure of 2.7 years per manager. That's shorter than I would have expected.

[baltfan]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I did not buy that narrative at the time but looking back it's kinda hard to deny. We had a real good chance to bring back a good team in 2015 and blew it, and it hasn't been the same since. 

This year, Angelos should have bought out DD and brought in somebody to do the rebuild. Now we are set back a year or more since we can't get anything for Britton any more and might get stuck with just a draft pick for Manny. 

There was virtually no one on this board that thought we should resign Cruz and Miller.  Davis and O’Day as clearly an attempt to learn a lesson from letting them go.  Turned out it wasn’t the right lesson to learn.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I did not buy that narrative at the time but looking back it's kinda hard to deny. We had a real good chance to bring back a good team in 2015 and blew it, and it hasn't been the same since. 

This year, Angelos should have bought out DD and brought in somebody to do the rebuild. Now we are set back a year or more since we can't get anything for Britton any more and might get stuck with just a draft pick for Manny. 

I’m not sure I buy the narrative now.   I don’t couple DD’s desire to go to Toronto with his decisions not to re-sign Cruz, Markakis and Miller.     And I think those were his decisions.    Certainly nobody’s going to tell me that Buck was pushing not to re-sign those guys.   That would be totally out of character.   

Seems to me that until the 2015-16 offseason, the O’s were trying to operate within a certain budget and made some tough decisions on some guys who had been contributors.    They had a big drop the next season and felt they couldn’t afford to let their window pass by, and tried to spend their way out of it.     In hindsight, they should have had their spending spree in the 2014-15 offseason and then jettisoned Davis, who cost more than Cruz, Markakis and Miller combined.    

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

What does September have to do with this season.   13 of those losses last year came from Miley, Jimenez, Ynoa and Hellickson.  Those guys are not on this roster what we did in September is not related to this season one bit.

One of my big problems with this team last year was continuing to give starts to pitchers like Miley, Jimenez and Hellickson who weren't major league starters after the playoffs were out of reach. The O's obviously needed more starters and it would have been nice to see some more starts from the AA and AAA starters.  I'm not saying they would have done anything better, but it would have been nice to see them given a chance.

[gtman55]

The Orioles have been a mess for a while as far as decision making. I don't know what goes on behind the scenes to know whether it's Buck or DD or the Angelos clan. Had we traded Machado, Brach, Britton and O'day when we should have, we could have gotten a kings ransom of good, young talent. The whole international player situation is ludicrous.

We have a manager that plays favorites and sometimes to the detriment of the club. Remember when Kim was in Buck's doghouse? Why exactly? We have little team speed and are poor at situational hitting. We rely on the home run but this isn't the Weaver Orioles with Frank and Brooks and Boog and Palmer and McNally.

Signing Davis to that awful contract is hurting us badly. It's much worse than the Flacco contract that Ravens fans moan about. At least Flacco has looked like a pro most of the time. Davis looks absolutely clueless most of the time.

Also, why would you switch one of the best fielding 3rd baseman in baseball to SS because HE says so? We then had to move Beckham to a position he's new to.

Ending on a positive note:

I think we actually have 4 decent starting pitchers in Bundy, Cobb, Cashner and Gausman. We just need to figure out that 5th spot. This is as good as I've felt about O's starters in a long time. But for God's sake can we mercifully cut ties with Tillman and Wright?

 

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think people realize how bad that Toronto situation (2014-15 offseason) screwed up everything positive we had going. It caused Duquette to lose a lot of power and created the current situation. 

Think about it. We didn't resign Cruz who was a tremendous influence in the clubhouse, particularly with the Hispanic players, and we really didn't do much that offseason. From what i heard, part of it was the fact that Duquette had lost so much influence with Angelos because of his desire to take the Toronto job. Angelos, and from what I understand Buck, felt Duquette wasn't loyal. 

But let's look at that winter a little closer. We lost not only Cruz, but the best relief pitcher we had (Miller) and Markakis. 

The Orioles basically didn't replace any of them until January 27th when they trade for Travis Snider to be Markakis' replacement. That's about it when it came to any signicant moves.

How do you go from having one of the best teams in baseball to letting three good players go and replace them with Travis Snider? Something was amiss.

Let's jump to 2015. Duquette, in a feable attempt to win (probably to try and regain some influence) trades Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra, mainly because RF was a disaster because they didn't resign Markakis.

Now let's go to the 2015-16 offseason and see where Buck/Brady start to have more influence on moves.  

Wei-Yin Chen granted Free Agency.

Chris Davis granted Free Agency.

Darren O'Day granted Free Agency.

Gerardo Parra granted Free Agency.

Steve Pearce granted Free Agency.

Matt Wieters granted Free Agency.

So after struggling in 2015, the Orioles can't afford to lose Davis and O'day a year after they lost Cruz and Miller (the two guys they should have resigned) especially because they are Buck guys. Duquette reportedly was fine with letting Davis go, but Buck stepped in and ensured he was resigned.

Duquette then takes a chance and thinks he'll get draft pick for Wieters by giving him the 1yr/$16 million, but Wieters/Boros smartly take the one year offer knowing they were not going to get that kind of money coming off the year he had with the injuries.

So now the Orioles are stuck with an expensive Wieters, and give Davis and O'[day the money they should have given Cruz and Miller.

Almost all of this can be traced back to the 2014 offseason and the Toronto situation with Duquette. Basically the Toronto situation was a major cause in the Orioles dysfunctional chain of command situation, why the team is stuck with the Davis contract, and why this team has not even sniffed the same kind of success it had in 2014.

I agree with you very much.  An excellent summary.  You are right that the absolute pivotal timeframe to all of what we have now was the offseason after our best season since 1997. In that winter of 2014 came the situation with Toronto.  However, here is where I disagree just a bit.  You describe it as a “situation”  and seem to absolve Duquette from responsibility.  I believe Duquette is completely responsible for deciding to forgo his own relationship with ownership and the subsequent loss of his influence is due to this dalliance.  Now Toronto is at fault for it getting out into the media, but Duquette had to know that Angelos was not just going to say “Oh gosh, Dan, what a great opportunity for you and your family.  God go with you!”  Dan had to know that if he did not get the Toronto job and Angelos knew about it, that his working relationship would be damaged irreparably. 

Lord knows, I hate Angelos as much as anybody for his dysfunctional leadership.  But Angelos did not start this.  Toronto and Duquette did.   At a time when we had critical decisions to make in the offseason after our most successful season (created with considerable help from the rebuild done by the previous GM) as you describe in your excellent summary.  The true dysfunctional mistake of Angelos was keeping Duquette at that point.  Cutting off his nose to punish/control an underling is one of his leadership traits. Angelos should have fired him right then and pursued whatever remedies he might have had with MLB or by suing Toronto.   

Dan essentially became a lame duck at that point and the triumvarate decsion hydra was created just as you outline.  But Angelos is an owner who is like many other dictatorial CEOs or leaders...namely, loyalty outweighs competence.   And triumvarates never work...see Roman Empire.  

Time for a clean slate, I suppose.  Dan and Buck both need to go.  And if it were me, Brady would be on that ship too.  But instead it seems inevitable that Brady will be GM, God help us, and we are going to lose for a much longer time frame than just since last September, imho.   Unless the sons are truly willing to value competence than loyalty, it will be Brady’s team for long enough to really send us into another dark era.   

 

 

 

[Mountain Bird]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Feeling a little down about the Orioles? Maybe it's because they are 11-28 (.282) since September of last year.

But no worries, Buck will just talk about track records.

 

Normally I try to keep my posts somewhat positive. Lately though I see some things that in my opinion are negatively affecting the Orioles performance. First, Chris Davis looks like a lost ball in the high weeds. His bat speed is missing as well as his ability to even make contact with even mediocre pitches. Second, Chris Tillman, even though he has never had a lot of FB velocity, has even less pitch speed,and shows no command. Third, while I have been a big Buck supporter and consider him to be among the best managers, being loyal to past performance should only go so far. I have been a big fan of the two Chris's for years but it is time to admit they have lost "it". The ugly elephant in the room is obviously Davis's contract, and where do you hide someone whom you are obligated to pay that much money.Tillman is much easier, just release him. The way he is pitching right now he could not get out minor league hitters. Maybe he can sign with an independant league team and get himself straightened out. after all he is still relatively young. In Chris Davis' case we are stuck with him.

[VaBird1]

5 minutes ago, Mountain Bird said:

Normally I try to keep my posts somewhat positive. Lately though I see some things that in my opinion are negatively affecting the Orioles performance. First, Chris Davis looks like a lost ball in the high weeds. His bat speed is missing as well as his ability to even make contact with even mediocre pitches. Second, Chris Tillman, even though he has never had a lot of FB velocity, has even less pitch speed,and shows no command. Third, while I have been a big Buck supporter and consider him to be among the best managers, being loyal to past performance should only go so far. I have been a big fan of the two Chris's for years but it is time to admit they have lost "it". The ugly elephant in the room is obviously Davis's contract, and where do you hide someone whom you are obligated to pay that much money.Tillman is much easier, just release him. The way he is pitching right now he could not get out minor league hitters. Maybe he can sign with an independant league team and get himself straightened out. after all he is still relatively young. In Chris Davis' case we are stuck with him.

I wonder at what point the roster spot is more valuable than his contract.  There has to be a point, but I don’t know when it is.

[Ripken]

We put the roster together wrong, and are being too slow to correct it, because of money and veteranosity.  Tillman, Rasmus, and Wright need to be released.  Davis should be released but it won't happen, at least bench him.  Sisco needs to be the regular catcher.  Feldman/Lackey/Vet and Hays need to be added... unless they really think Hess or someone in the org is ready to be a SP but I do not see that at all.  

It should be more like this, give or take:

SP - Bundy, Cobb, Gausman, Cashner, Vet

RP - Brach, DOD, Givens, Hart, Castro, Araujo, Bleier

C - Sisco, (Joseph)

OF - Jones, Hays, Santander, (Gentry - really should have added Jay)

IF - Machado, Schoop, Beckham, Mancini, (Davis)

DH - Valencia, Alvarez

DL - Britton, Trumbo

Shuttle - Scott, Harvey, Hess, and whomever else can help