Chris Davis has a problem with velocity.

[Luke-OH]

I've talked about this a bit in multiple threads, and it started with my eyes telling me that Chris Davis has lost bat speed and now has a slider speed bat.

I've dabbled with some data to back it up, but I've been getting more familiar with the Baseball Savant search function and then exporting and manipulating that data.

Here is the most conclusive results-based evidence supporting my initial hypothesis.

 

260 players saw 500 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 92mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .352

Chris Davis was tied for 256th with a wOBA of .265

That is 1.8 standard deviations below the mean.

 

So that seems like pretty solid evidence, but wait, I'm not done.

 

216 players saw 200 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 95mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .329

Chris Davis was dead last by a fairly wide margin with a wOBA of .135

That is 2.8 standard deviations below the mean.

It's also absolutely terrible.

 

[Frobby]

So who’s the best Oriole at handling velocity?    It would be interesting to know the wOBA’s of the various other O’s using your criteria.  

[wildcard]

Davis swing looks long to me.   That probably effect his bat speed.   He needs to be shorter to the ball if that is possible.

[Moose Milligan]

He's never looked like he's had a fast bat to me.  Like Raffy had that long, looping swing.  Davis has that swing where it looks slow and easy when he misses (which is ALL THE TIME NOW) but beautiful, fluid and effortless when he happens to square one up.

I would like to see bat speed data measured in MPH from his big homer seasons to where he is now.  

[now]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Davis swing looks long to me.   That probably effect his bat speed.   He needs to be shorter to the ball if that is possible.

Like, um, bunting. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So who’s the best Oriole at handling velocity?    It would be interesting to know the wOBA’s of the various other O’s using your criteria.  

Mancini is at .409 wOBA for fastballs 92+

Manny .345

Schoop .323

Jones .349

Trumbo .296

Seth Smith .332

That's all that meet the sample size criteria.

For FBs 95+

It's still Mancini at .403

Manny .299

Schoop .226

Jones .304

Trumbo .275

[esmd]

So I guess I would question how that happened?  Is it the oblique injury he had?  Has his swing changed?  I mean, he's not at the age where his skills should be declining, it's not like he's 33 or older.  It's certainly possible that he'd decline prematurely, but I'd be surprised if that was indeed the case. 

[esmd]

Btw....this thread is good stuff, thanks for posting.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Mancini is at .409 wOBA for fastballs 92+

Manny .345

Schoop .323

Jones .349

Trumbo .296

Seth Smith .332

That's all that meet the sample size criteria.

For FBs 95+

It's still Mancini at .403

Manny .299

Schoop .226

Jones .304

Trumbo .275

Wow, don’t try to get a fastball by Mancini!    It’s also interesting that Schoop has a big dropoff in performance vs. the 95+ heat, compared to 92+, relative to the other players.    

[TouchemAll]

Mancini and Manny were my guesses

[Luke-OH]

For comparison, in 2014 which was a really bad year for Chris Davis.

He was .260 wOBA against 95+

And was .329 against 92+

So this is not just a when he's struggling thing, it's a decline for one reason or another.

[NashLumber]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Davis swing looks long to me.   That probably effect his bat speed.   He needs to be shorter to the ball if that is possible.

Looks like a freaking golf swing.

[Luke-OH]

And when he was crushing the ball, he crushed velocity.

In 2013 and 2015 combined he went,

.326 wOBA against 95+

.375 against 92+

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

Looks like a freaking golf swing.

Thats an insult to any golfer, Pros have like a 120 mph club head speed and even I have 95. I'd be surprised if Davis had a bat sped over 70

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

And when he was crushing the ball, he crushed velocity.

In 2013 and 2015 combined he went,

.326 wOBA against 95+

.375 against 92+

I'm finding it hard not to assume he was enhanced in those years. Either that, or his use of amphetamines has caught up to him.