Chris Davis has a problem with velocity.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Oh and for those who are wondering how Davis had .312 wOBA last season given this data.

It's slow fastballs.

FBs less than or equal to 92mph = .424 wOBA

Less than or equal to 90mph = .546 wOBA

For reference, he's 3rd out of 203 players who have seen 200+ FBs <=90mph in wOBA in 2017-2018.

So worst in the league at hitting plus fastballs, best in the league at hitting below average fastballs.

This is useful knowledge if you are trying to choose when to play him.

I bet he’d be great in my slow pitch softball games.    

[TouchemAll]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I was going to guess Jones, mostly because he is so bad at hitting off speed

He was on my list too still has a fast bat at least to my old eyes.

[TouchemAll]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t say Jones is uniformly bad at hitting offspeed.   He absolutely crushes hanging breaking balls.   But throw him a good one low and away and he’s helpless.    

YUP A good slider low and away will send Jones back to the bench on three swings. 

[panick]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I've talked about this a bit in multiple threads, and it started with my eyes telling me that Chris Davis has lost bat speed and now has a slider speed bat.

I've dabbled with some data to back it up, but I've been getting more familiar with the Baseball Savant search function and then exporting and manipulating that data.

Here is the most conclusive results-based evidence supporting my initial hypothesis.

 

260 players saw 500 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 92mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .352

Chris Davis was tied for 256th with a wOBA of .265

That is 1.8 standard deviations below the mean.

 

So that seems like pretty solid evidence, but wait, I'm not done.

 

216 players saw 200 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 95mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .329

Chris Davis was dead last by a fairly wide margin with a wOBA of .135

That is 2.8 standard deviations below the mean.

It's also absolutely terrible.

 

I think you should send this research to the O's. The coaches obviously haven't come up with anything to help other than the 'process' Palmer keeps referring to.

 

[OsEatAlEast]

His reaction time seems to me to be compromised somehow. He doesn't even do an emergency hack on a fastball right down the middle.

[xian4]

Is this related to the loss of the ADHD drug Adderall or maybe when the confidence is down, you just don't take massive cuts at the ball

[mall-O-cup]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

The problem with Davis is he also has a problem with off speed. Not sure where to get the numbers but my eye test says it is true. I think Davis has a problem with pitching in general.

No it's not the pitching it's the hitting!   

 

[PHRESH]

Anyone know of he's tried switching to a lighter bat? 

[OFFNY]

5 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

 

Does anyone know of he's tried switching to a lighter bat ???

 

o

 

 

o

[Ohfan67]

Great work by Luke. But unfortunately it's a horribly depressing thread. There seems to be little hope....unless there are studies showing that bat speed varies as players' performance surges and regresses? I assume that bat speed is bat speed and doesn't vary very much from year to year or maybe even during a season unless a player is injured. Anyone know of data addressing this? I'm looking for some sliver of hope. 

[brooksfrankjim]

I think there is a difference between bat speed and reaction timing.  I think he is generating comparable bat speed with his swing but he has lost a ton of reaction timing.

I have been surprised they haven’t tried a new stance and swing.  He holds the bat high and his swing has a lot of movement.  There has to be an approach that can shorten and quiet his swing.  What he is doing now clearly isn’t working.  I’d be curious if they could change his stance and swIng something akin to Harper.

This is superb work Luke.  

[OsEatAlEast]

37 minutes ago, xian4 said:

Is this related to the loss of the ADHD drug Adderall or maybe when the confidence is down, you just don't take massive cuts at the ball

There is clinical evidence that long term use of Adderall causes permanent damage to dopamine receptors. It's actually becomes a neurotoxin if too much is taken over a long period.

I honestly think I'd rather had ADD than take that stuff. But that is just my opinion.

[Finisher]

Truly a hopeless situation here. Needed to exchange salary dumps this offseason while there was still a tiny tiny glimmer of hope Davis might rebound even slightly, but now that delusion is gone. Just need to bench him against all lefties (LOL at starting him against Sale) and against all hard throwing righties.

But of course Buck will run him out there every game and in the middle of the order.

[mdbdotcom]

30 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Anyone know of he's tried switching to a lighter bat? 

I was wondering the same thing. Would swinging a lighter bat and taking the ball the other way help him?

[OriolesMagic83]

This is terrible news.  Our only hope is that Davis decides he is tired of sucking at baseball and wants to retire.  Not likely when he would stop collecting millions.

How terrible would he have to be to stop getting regular at bats?  .150 with no power?  I could see Buck saying he has a track record and is due to break out any day for months.