My Personal Breakdown Of The Roster Now That Possibility Of Contention Has Vanished

[Matt Bennett]

The team would have to play .600 ball (84 wins in 139 games) to win 90 games. It's not happening. Dan Duquette did reign over a good Orioles team from 2012-2016 (can't give him all the credit in those early years because many pieces were already here). As a fan who was born in 1998 (the year the losing streak started), I am grateful for him doing his part in changing a losing culture. Unfortunately, he has made too many mistakes and the product of those mistakes is on the field right now. In this business, if you make too many mistakes, you lose your job. The 2012-2016 window has closed, and I'm operating under the assumption that a new window won't open up for at least a couple years. Here is how I would breakdown the 40-man roster now that the 2018 chance of contention has vanished.

Our Best Trade Pieces:

1) Machado (FA19)- I don't really need to explain why the Orioles NEED to trade him, hopefully ASAP. 

2) Schoop (FA20) - I know this one will hurt, but if the 2018 Orioles aren't good, I have a hard time believing the 2019 Orioles will be good. He only has one year of control left after 2018 and he might even bring back a bigger package than Machado considering that. I haven't heard of any serious extension discussions.

3) Jones (FA19)- Orioles Hall of Famer no doubt but I'm not a sentimental type. Above all the fans want a winning product on the field and Jonesy is a valuable outfielder who is unfortunately on the wrong side of 30 and likely won't be a capable starting outfielder by the time the Orioles are ready to compete again.

Our Secondary Trade Pieces:

1) Britton (FA19) - He should have been traded a while ago. He is an expensive, often injured closer on the wrong side of 30 (not a piece for the next contending Orioles team). Hopefully he can come back soon enough and pitch decently to cultivate some value.

2) Brach (FA19) - Ditto with Britton justification although he is durable.

3) O'Day (FA20) - Not a terrible contract and a contender might want him down the stretch if he can limit the home-runs.

4) Joseph (FA21) - Although he still has some control left, catching depth is not a weakness of the organization. He has proven to be a solid albeit inconsistent catcher at times. He accumulated a 2.3 and 1.6 WAR in limited work in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Hopefully his offensive production won't replicate his 2016 season and he is actually somewhat valuable.

5) Alvarez/Valencia/Tillman/Rasmus (FA19) - Just putting them here in case any of them start to look like major league capable players like they have in the past and they amass enough value to get a lower level prospect.

The Contracts We Are Stuck With In The Near Future For Better Or For Worse:

Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, & Cashner

Let's Evaluate Our Major League Young/Controllable Talent:

1) Bundy - I'm a big fan of Bundy and I think it would be a smart move to extend him now. We don't want him to have one year of control left just as the Orioles are getting good again. Lock him down and build the future rotation around him. He's 25 and is the first home-grown stud since Bedard.

2) Gausman - He's not going to be the front end of the rotation pitcher we wanted, but he's serviceable nonetheless. He might not be a part of the next Orioles contending team but he could be useful to keep around. No real reason to trade him yet.

3) Mancini - He doesn't seep to stop hitting, but does he have indisputable 1B/DH power? He could take over long-term once Trumbo is gone via trade (luckily) or free agency.

4) Givens - He could probably be the closer of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate saves (value) until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

5) Belier - He could probably be the set-up man of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate holds (value) until he gets too expensive/even older.

6) Santander - He's clearly over-matched right now but just a couple more weeks until we can control of a decent power-hitting prospect that can regain confidence at Bowie for the rest of 2018.

7) Sisco - I'm also a big fan of Sisco and he can be paired with Austin Wynns for the long-term once Joseph is gone.

8) Beckham - He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

9) Araujo - He clearly has electric stuff and is worth the flyer even if he goes throw some rough outings. Hopefully his fate is better than that of Jason Garcia.

10) Rickard - If he can show sustained success at AAA he should get a chance to show he is a capable outfielder.

Capable Relievers Or Waiver Wire Material?

Castro, Wright, Hart, Ynoa, Lee, Yacabonis

For As Tempting As It May Seem To Let The Youngings Play, Please Don't Rush The Following To The Majors Unless They Are Worthy Of A Promotion:

Hunter Harvey, David Hess, Tanner Scott, Yefry Ramirez, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, & Ryan Mountcastle

 

what do you guys think?

[sportsfan8703]

Good idea. Please remove Joseph has a potential trade piece. He’s more likely to retire due to lack of interest really soon. 

[orioles119]

The Orioles need to revisit the idea of getting Albert Almora from the Cubs.  He could be great in the O's outfield for years.

[Beef Supreme]

32 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

8) Beckham - He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

Do you realize that will be the 2020 season that Beckham will be the "wrong side of 30?"

So much for "the next couple of years"...

[vab]

Trade any non-SP who can bring a young SP with potential. No exceptions. 

[Beef Supreme]

36 minutes ago, vab said:

Trade any non-SP who can bring a young SP with potential. No exceptions. 

...and a shortstop who can pick it and hit a little.

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

Do you realize that will be the 2020 season that Beckham will be the "wrong side of 30?"

So much for "the next couple of years"...

I am confused at your comment. Beckham is 28 for the 2018 season, 29 for the 2019 season, 30 for the 2020 season. He is a free agent after the 2020 season. I said at the beginning I think it would be at least a couple years until the Orioles could contend again. So Beckham could be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams of 2019 and 2020...at that point he would be 30 and probably not somebody you want to move forward with at a middle infield position like shortstop for your next window of contention.

[Rene88]

Most fans on this board realized not rebuilding was irresponsible and/or the result of ineptitude. We didn’t think we would be this bad, this soon however.

This organization needs to be rebuilt in the FO if it wants any success. Meaning the manager should have less power than the GM and Brady should not be working on a parallel universe with Buck while DD works other moves. This organization is a mess from top to bottom.

If they want to fix it, which I fully don’t expect, they would hire a good GM and let them pick the next manager. Let them repair scouting, player de elopement and international scouting.

But sadly, none of this will happen.

[ChuckS]

We only have a handful of players near FA who are going to have any significant value at the trade deadline:  Machado, Schoop, Gausman, *Brach, and *Britton.  These are the guys we should really be looking to move aggressively. I put asterisks next to Brach and Britton because they need to be pitching well.  

With Adam Jones it will depend on his bat coming around.  Remember, he will still be owed roughly 6-8 million that the team trading him will have to inherit.  A sub-.750 OPS (should be) corner outfielder and pending free agent isn't worth a whole lot and AJ also has 10/5 protection.  I think he would wave it though for a chance to play in a WS. 

I've yet to see this current administration sell high on a single player so I will be holding my breath on Schoop and Gausman being dealt, but those two could likely fetch more back than Manny since they are under control for additional seasons.  

Probably end up being a lot of disappointment, like in the 2017 trade deadline.  But it's hard to imagine Manny not being traded at some point. 

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Rene88 said:

Most fans on this board realized not rebuilding was irresponsible and/or the result of ineptitude. We didn’t think we would be this bad, this soon however.

This organization needs to be rebuilt in the FO if it wants any success. Meaning the manager should have less power than the GM and Brady should not be working on a parallel universe with Buck while DD works other moves. This organization is a mess from top to bottom.

If they want to fix it, which I fully don’t expect, they would hire a good GM and let them pick the next manager. Let them repair scouting, player de elopement and international scouting.

But sadly, none of this will happen.

Who saw the offense being this terrible or the bullpen falling apart?  The SP has been good and that’s without Cobb being a beast yet. He will. We ran into a brutal April too. We were just outgunned roster wise. 

You give this team a role player here and there and maybe things would be different. Like Jon Jay over Rasmus. Flaherty. Liriano over Tillman. Those were guys we were heavily involved with. We just made the wrong decision. 

[mdbdotcom]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who saw the offense being this terrible or the bullpen falling apart?  The SP has been good and that’s without Cobb being a beast yet. He will. We ran into a brutal April too. We were just outgunned roster wise. 

You give this team a role player here and there and maybe things would be different. Like Jon Jay over Rasmus. Flaherty. Liriano over Tillman. Those were guys we were heavily involved with. We just made the wrong decision. 

Anyone who watched the team last September saw the offense this terrible. 

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Anyone who watched the team last September saw the offense this terrible. 

Yeah but that was esily excused by a long 5 year run with no days off and the team just gave up. Looks like that carried over.

I’m not making excuses but we’ve faced some tough SP so far and the roster makeup is terrible. Plus pitchers are ahead of hittters at the beginning of the season and we’ve run into a buzz saw.

It’s still terrible and tough to watch.  But, Kyle Gibson has been the only “bad” SP we’ve faced.  We haven’t ran into many #4 and #5 types.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I don't disagree with the OP, except Joseph being a trade piece.  I question how much of a market there will be for Britton and Brach.  Certainly not as good as there would have been a couple years ago.

This isn't even an issue if the Oriole could have ever figured out a way to draft and develop elite MiL talent, consistently.   

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I agree with most of the OP, but actually believe the O's can be competitive in 2019.

Pitching: Bundy, Cobb, Gausman, Cashner, Harvey

We have some good bullpen pieces and can always pick some up on the cheap, we will have money

Catching-Sisco

Infield-Davis (wish he were gone), Schoop, Beckham, NEED a 3B/SS

Outfield-Mancini, Mullins, Hays, Sandater, Rickard

DH-Trumbo (stuck with him too)

The way I see it; we can be competitive with a good signing of a productive 3B/SS. Maybe not top of the league good, but definitely competitive

[atomic]

why would anyone trade for Brach.  Machado and Schoop are the guys we should trade.