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Rosenthal on Tex and the Orioles

fearthenoodle

By fearthenoodle
in Orioles Talk

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

Posted
Posted
Miguel Cabrera (2008) 8/152 25 y/o

Todd Helton (2003) 9/142 29 y/o

(Rangers offer (2007) 8/140) 28 y/o

Alfonso Soriano (2007) 8/136 31 y/o

Vernon Wells (2008) 7/126 29 y/o

Carlos Beltran (2005) 7/119 28 y/o

I'd say that's the market range here. Top end seems likely with the big spender all in the bidding.

Added the ages each guy was in the first full year of their deal (or Tex would've been). Tex will be 29 next year. MCab is the only guy I wouldn't take into consideration as a baseline here. He's too unique of a situation. The others all apply for various reasons. The most recent of Soriano, Wells, and Beltran appear to be the best bets.

I think something in the 7/$126M range that Wells got makes the most sense (actually didn't realize he had signed that exact deal when I brought it up earlier in the thread). 8 years is a possiblity for sure, but I think that 7-years might be more likely.

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itsernst Major Leaguer Rising Star

itsernst

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I think a 6 year 120 gets it done; The fact that Howard and Fielder will be FA's doesn't help the market for Tex. Boras will continue to do what he does...we all know that. But Fielder is coming off a 50 HR season last year, and he will put up close to that this year. Howard has been off to start the season, be slowly and surely he is putting things together...he is also the guy who was awarded 10million from arbitration.

I like our chances to bring Marky Mark home.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I think a 6 year 120 gets it done; The fact that Howard and Fielder will be FA's doesn't help the market for Tex. Boras will continue to do what he does...we all know that. But Fielder is coming off a 50 HR season last year, and he will put up close to that this year. Howard has been off to start the season, be slowly and surely he is putting things together...he is also the guy who was awarded 10million from arbitration.

I like our chances to bring Marky Mark home.

These guys aren't close to being FAs...They are likely to be available in trades though.

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YankThis! AAA

YankThis!

Posted
Posted
Miguel Cabrera (2008) 8/152

Todd Helton (2003) 9/142

(Rangers offer (2007) 8/140)

Alfonso Soriano (2007) 8/136

Vernon Wells (2008) 7/126

Carlos Beltran (2005) 7/119

I'd say that's the market range here. Top end seems likely with the big spenders all in the bidding.

Call me crazy, but I don't think Teixeira is the caliber of player that Soriano or Beltran are. How Wells got that contract is a complete mystery to me.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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A big reason for this is that we have young talent who haven't earned their big deals. If we want Markakis here long term he's going to fetch top dollar as will Adam Jones. Shelling out this kind of money might be affordable this year but 3 years down the road it could mean that a lot of talent walks away from the organization.

I don't think $20 million per for a 1st baseman is a good value. I'd rather have Huff at $8 million a year.

This is why you lock these guys up a year or two into FA so that doesn't happen. Money is not an issue when it comes to Tex. We are spending 19 million this season right now on Gibbons, Huff and Payton and Gibbons isn't even playing for us. We've got plenty of money and Tex will increase the attendance and his marketablity will also provide revenue seeing as he's a local product.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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Call me crazy, but I don't think Teixeira is the caliber of player that Soriano or Beltran are. How Wells got that contract is a complete mystery to me.

Teixeira is probably better than Soriano or Beltran. If you are talking fantasy points, then you might have something.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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The next time you see a player signed and the GM mentioned his OPS+ will be the first time.
So if a GM doesn't mention his OPS+ to the public he hasn't looked at it? What about his RC/27 or WARP3 or any of those?

I would just about guarantee every GM in the business uses those stats and I am damn sure anybody considering throwing 9-figures at a guy will know every stat there is to know about a player.

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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Call me crazy, but I don't think Teixeira is the caliber of player that Soriano or Beltran are. How Wells got that contract is a complete mystery to me.

Wells had a monster pre-FA year and JP Ricciardi is an overrated GM...those are the reasons

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IamtheSkip AAA

IamtheSkip

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Call me crazy, but I don't think Teixeira is the caliber of player that Soriano or Beltran are. How Wells got that contract is a complete mystery to me.

You don't even put Teixeira on Beltran's level?

Tex is offensively superior to Beltran in essentially every stat besides steals. And Beltran is older.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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That doesn't mean they haven't taken it into consideration.

They might but most GMs are still looking at the traditional stats.

If Tex ends up with a 270 BA and 28 homers but a good OPS+, i guarantee you that he won't get the as good a contract as he hopes.

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