Rosenthal on Tex and the Orioles

[IamtheSkip]

Beltran's consistently been a 35 HR, 100 RBI, .850+ OPS guy since getting that deal. I agree he's too old to get a deal like that today but he received that contract in 2005.

If by consistently you mean in 2006-2007, then yes, he's been consistent.

He was pretty awful, considering his price tag, in 2005, and he's on the same pace this season.

Teixeira keeps his OPS near .900, and could easily be a 35-45 HR 100 RBI guy back in the American League. Especially with the porch he'd get in right field at Camden Yards.

[tywright]

You're right. I'm an idiot and don't know anything. I clearly never pay any attention what's going on.

Here's stats for 700 PAs for a guy with 40 HR, a .290 BA, and a 120 OPS+ versus a guy with 28 HR, a .270 BA, and a 135 OPS+ (league average .750 and I ignored 3B and SF for simplicity):

PA	AB	BB	Avg	H	2B	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS700	650	50	0.290	189	55	40	0.341	0.559	0.900700	500	200	0.270	135	48	28	0.479	0.534	1.013

Obviously these numbers don't really make sense because your example was impractical. But, I definitely think many GMs would prefer the second guy by a vast margin.

Daaamn, 200 walks

[Sports Guy]

You're right. I'm an idiot and don't know anything. I clearly never pay any attention what's going on.

Here's stats for 700 PAs for a guy with 40 HR, a .290 BA, and a 120 OPS+ versus a guy with 28 HR, a .270 BA, and a 135 OPS+ (league average .750 and I ignored 3B and SF for simplicity):

PA	AB	BB	Avg	H	2B	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS700	650	50	0.290	189	55	40	0.341	0.559	0.900700	500	200	0.270	135	48	28	0.479	0.534	1.013

Obviously these numbers don't really make sense because your example was impractical. But, I definitely think many GMs would prefer the second guy but a wide margin.

Show me examples of teams valuing OPS+(or even ERA+) more than the traditional stats. Give me comparisons.

You are so sure of this, so obviously you have some kind of facts to back it up and not just speculation.

I think GMs, without a doubt, look at all stats. But no way do I think MOST GMs look at WARP, VORP, OPS+ or any of those stats and say those are more important than BA, HRs, RBIs, ERA, Wins, saves, etc....

A lot more Joe Morgan types out there than Beane types IMO.

What else would explain the constant stupidity every year by most GMs?

[YankThis!]

Generally speaking, I think these FA auctions usually end up with someone grossly overpaying. Its called the 'winners curse.' Teixeira's value and his price won't necessarily be one and the same. Don't be surprised to see Cashman spend $23 million a year on him. I don't think Steinbrenner will lose a bidding war to Baltimore without hitting us in the pocket book. The top FA's will be playing for Anaheim, LA, NYY, Chicago, Boston, etc. Business as usual. We'll be feasting on FA scraps like the rest of the peons. Either that, or we'll pay through the nose and have no money to resign our youth in a couple of years. Its a lose-lose in my opinion.

[JTrea81]

So let me put out a hypothetical for you guys that don't want to give Tex a huge deal.

Say it's down to the O's and MFY's bidding for him. Good ol' Hank offers him 8/160 and says it's his final offer and has 2 days to decide. Do you match the MFY's offer or raise it to 8/165 OR do you let him become a MFY?

If it's only 5 million, considering we just wasted that on Jay Payton this season, I'd say give him the extra 5 million.

[YankThis!]

So let me put out a hypothetical for you guys that don't want to give Tex a huge deal.

Say it's down to the O's and MFY's bidding for him. Good ol' Hank offers him 8/160 and says it's his final offer and has 2 days to decide. Do you match the MFY's offer or raise it to 8/165 OR do you let him become a MFY?

The Yankees would never let $5 million stand in the way of taking a marquis FA away from an AL club.

[Mackus]

Show me examples of teams valuing OPS+(or even ERA+) more than the traditional stats. Give me comparisons.

You are so sure of this, so obviously you have some kind of facts to back it up and not just speculation.

I think GMs, without a doubt, look at all stats. But no way do I think MOST GMs look at WARP, VORP, OPS+ or any of those stats and say those are more important than BA, HRs, RBIs, ERA, Wins, saves, etc....

A lot more Joe Morgan types out there than Beane types IMO.

What else would explain the constant stupidity every year by most GMs?

I explain the "constant stupidity" as "risk taking". I don't think GMs give Gil Meche an $55M deal thinking he's worth the same as other guys making that much. They have to overvalue some guys to get them to come. Sometimes they are forced out of desperation to try things that they know don't have a great chance of working out.

The teams that have the most money and the greatest ability to absorb risk (Red Sox, Yankees) give out big contracts all the time because if it backfires (as many of each of these team's contracts have) it doesn't matter because they can afford it.

And often times moves that would look smart based on newer-age stats like OPS+, RC/27 and WARP and even more exotic things end up looking stupid, simply because even though these stats are better and more descriptive, they still are far from a sure thing in predicting the future.

[writehh]

Angelos long has coveted Teixeira, who grew up in Severna Park, Md., a suburb of Baltimore

A misconception repeated often enough soon becomes common knowledge.

Is this common knowledge or is this a misconception? When did this love affair begin? Why should we believe the flames still burn?

I recall Peter talking about the role of luck in baseball. He noted that if the Orioles had not swept the Yankees in three meaningless games at the end of 2000 season then the Orioles would have been in the position to draft Teixeira (instead Chris Smith was drafted). Is this one public comment the proof that Peter covets Teixeira -- as opposed to coveting an opportunity to draft someone other than Chris Smith?

Why should we believe that Peter has a man-crush on Teixeira?

[JTrea81]

A misconception repeated often enough soon becomes common knowledge.

Is this common knowledge or is this a misconception? When did this love affair begin? Why should we believe the flames still burn?

I recall Peter talking about the role of luck in baseball. He noted that if the Orioles had not swept the Yankees in three meaningless games at the end of 2000 season then the Orioles would have been in the position to draft Teixeira (instead Chris Smith was drafted). Is this one public comment the proof that Peter covets Teixeira -- as opposed to coveting an opportunity to draft someone other than Chris Smith?

Why should we believe that Peter has a man-crush on Teixeira?

It's only the worst kept secret in baseball.

Our insiders and Mr. Firestone himself have mentioned numerous times how badly the O's want Tex...

[MarkF]

I don't see anyone offering 8 guaranteed years....I don't want to offer more than 6 guaranteed years personally.

Anyone? I think someone will do it. The Cubs gave Soriano eight years and he was 31 at the time. Teixeira will be 30. Bidding will be at least as spirited for Teixeira as it was for Soriano.

I also think that you (not you personally) have to look at these contracts more in their entirety rather than years x dollars = cost. What is the current value of the contract? A dollar paid eight years from now isn't worth what a dollar is worth today. And what is the value of what we are signing? Will we make the playoffs because of him during his contract? How many times? What is the impact on attendance during the eight years? (Think about Cal's impact on attendance over the years.)

Personally, I'd sign him in a heartbeat if I could do it for 8/160. It's a huge bet. But it is a huge opportunity as well.

[Sports Guy]

A misconception repeated often enough soon becomes common knowledge.

Is this common knowledge or is this a misconception? When did this love affair begin? Why should we believe the flames still burn?

I recall Peter talking about the role of luck in baseball. He noted that if the Orioles had not swept the Yankees in three meaningless games at the end of 2000 season then the Orioles would have been in the position to draft Teixeira (instead Chris Smith was drafted). Is this one public comment the proof that Peter covets Teixeira -- as opposed to coveting an opportunity to draft someone other than Chris Smith?

Why should we believe that Peter has a man-crush on Teixeira?

Because he does.

[Sports Guy]

One thing this says for sure is that Orioles need to make getting a potential first baseman a priority.

Gamel really needs to be a top target.

[brvn52]

What's plan B?

Millar or trading for Fielder/Howard.

By the way, what I meant in my hypothetical wasn't adding $5 million. It was basically match the offer (and maybe give him $5 million to guarantee he comes here) or let him go.

[Mackus]

Millar or trading for Fielder/Howard.

By the way, what I meant in my hypothetical wasn't adding $5 million. It was basically match the offer (and maybe give him $5 million to guarantee he comes here) or let him go.

Trading for Fielder or Howard is a terrible idea.

The thing that is attractive about Tex is that he would cost money and thats it. Trading the type of talent it would take to get Fielder or Howard would set back our rebuilding effort drastically and then would still require huge money.

The type of package to get either of those guys would probably be similar to the package to get Bedard if not bigger. It'd be a terrible move, but I have no worries of MacPhail trying something like that.

[Fan4Life]

Anyone? I think someone will do it. The Cubs gave Soriano eight years and he was 31 at the time. Teixeira will be 30. Bidding will be at least as spirited for Teixeira as it was for Soriano.

I also think that you (not you personally) have to look at these contracts more in their entirety rather than years x dollars = cost. What is the current value of the contract? A dollar paid eight years from now isn't worth what a dollar is worth today. And what is the value of what we are signing? Will we make the playoffs because of him during his contract? How many times? What is the impact on attendance during the eight years? (Think about Cal's impact on attendance over the years.)

Personally, I'd sign him in a heartbeat if I could do it for 8/160. It's a huge bet. But it is a huge opportunity as well.

How would you structure an 8/$160 deal in trying to take advantage of the depreciation of future $$$$?