10 to trade to jumpstart rebuild

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How can anyone know what will happen by 2020?   Right now we do not know who the owner, GM  or Manager will be.   The O's only have 35M committed in 2020.   If you look at the Phillies they added veteran Arrieta and Santana.      Maybe Gausman will be valuable to the O's in 2020 and maybe not.

Two years from now, we will not be contending. Book it. Trade Gausman and build for the future. 

[pastorfan]

2 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

Aside from Manny, if a GM were to ask me which player they should pick up from the Orioles roster, assuming none are too costly, I would point them toward Jones. As a corner or 4th OF, bench bat, clubhouse presence and someone with the fire to win, I think he could do very well as a rental on a winning club.

I think most GM's know enough to know that everyone is "under-performing" because the environment has become toxic. Thus, I think they know that Brach, Britton, and others will likely step it up in another uniform. 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Two years from now, we will not be contending. Book it. Trade Gausman and build for the future. 

That is an opinion.  

What is pretty certain is the Camden Yards can attract hitters but pitcher are not as attracted.  The O's have starters that have been pretty good at times in their careers.  The O's have a terrible defense.  If that is improved the pitching probably improves with it.

The O's can build a good  pen pretty easily. 

It will be interesting to watch but I would not say much is certain about the O's in 2020.

 

[pastorfan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

That is an opinion.  

What is pretty certain is the Camden Yards can attract hitters but pitcher are not as attracted.  The O's have starters that have been pretty good at times in their careers.  The O's have a terrible defense.  If that is improved the pitching probably improves with it.

The O's can build a good  pen pretty easily. 

It will be interesting to watch but I would not say much is certain about the O's in 2020.

 

The problem is that the Yanks are very young and the Sox are stacked. IF this were the AL central then maybe we could compete soon. But let's face it, we are looking at 2022 at the soonest.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

I think most GM's know enough to know that everyone is "under-performing" because the environment has become toxic. Thus, I think they know that Brach, Britton, and others will likely step it up in another uniform. 

Interesting but other GMs have many choices with so many teams out of contention.   They don't have to take the risk that O's players will improve over the last two months of the season if traded.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

The problem is that the Yanks are very young and the Sox are stacked. IF this were the AL central then maybe we could compete soon. But let's face it, we are looking at 2022 at the soonest.

The O's probably will compete with the Mariners, Twins, Angels and others for the 2nd Wild Card spot.  Or hope that one of the Yanks or Red Sox have a bad year in the future.   That the way the league is structured in normal years.  The O's have know that for years.

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

The problem is that the Yanks are very young and the Sox are stacked. IF this were the AL central then maybe we could compete soon. But let's face it, we are looking at 2022 at the soonest.

I have no idea how quick the Orioles can turn it around but the Sox window isn’t wide open. They are still Boston and I don’t expect them to collapse but still 

Weakening MiL system 

Pending FA after 

2018 Kimbrell, Pomeranz , Kelly

2019 Boegarts, Sale, Porcello

2020 Betts 

 

 

 

 

 

, 

[O's84]

Really only Machado is the only piece you'll get anything for really. 

[wildcard]

Jim Duquette said today that relievers are the easiest players to trade and both Britton and Brach will be traded before the deadline in his opinion.

[ScGO's]

12 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Two years from now, we will not be contending. Book it. Trade Gausman and build for the future. 

And Bundy

[ScGO's]

12 hours ago, pastorfan said:

I think most GM's know enough to know that everyone is "under-performing" because the environment has become toxic. Thus, I think they know that Brach, Britton, and others will likely step it up in another uniform. 

I really hope that that's the consensus.  It would make me think we could still shop Schoop, Givens, Gausman, and Bundy too.  Those are four that need to be traded by next season if we want some value you back.

We really shouldn't expect much for Jones, Brach, Britton, Valencia, Cashner, Trumbo at this point, but they should be traded either way for C prospect sleepers and to save cash.

[weams]

11 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I really hope that that's the consensus.  It would make me think we could still shop Schoop, Givens, Gausman, and Bundy too.  Those are four that need to be traded by next season if we want some value you back.

We really shouldn't expect much for Jones, Brach, Britton, Valencia, Cashner, Trumbo at this point, but they should be traded either way for C prospect sleepers and to save cash.

Schoop has little current value at his arb number for next season. Might as well play that one out. 

[weams]

11 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I really hope that that's the consensus.  It would make me think we could still shop Schoop, Givens, Gausman, and Bundy too.  Those are four that need to be traded by next season if we want some value you back.

We really shouldn't expect much for Jones, Brach, Britton, Valencia, Cashner, Trumbo at this point, but they should be traded either way for C prospect sleepers and to save cash.

I don't believe that is the consensus at all. I believe everyone in the industry knows these guys played way over their heads for Dan and Buck.

Even Manny, he thrived at the position they placed him at. 

[ScGO's]

About 2 weeks till the deadline, and being that this could be Manny's last game as an O, let's take a look at the markets for our trade chips.  Decent potential trade inventory.

1. Manny Machado - Hot - Need to pop this trade soon to maximize return, but looks like it will be a decent return, just a matter of if they can pry at top 100 prospect from someone.

2. Zach Britton - Hot - He's looking better each game, and many teams are starting to inquire. 

3. Adam Jones - Warm - His name is starting to come up more in trade rumors and even he seems to recognizing the inevitable.

4. Jonathan Schoop - Luke warm - As he heats up in July, the O's should be looking to move him as he plays a premium position and his value may never be higher.  His market may heat up in the offseason too.

5. Kevin Gausman - Luke warm - Struggled recently, but the O's should still look to shop him now as his extra years of control could be attractive to a team looking for a starter.

6. Michael Givens - warm - His name has come up a little bit in trade talks.  Has struggled, but might have the most value of any of our players beyond Manny.  I trade now if the return is solid.

7. Brad Brach - Luke warm - His performance hasn't helped, but I think they O's will find a way to trade him for something.

8. Danny Valencia - warm - performance has dropped a bit, but someone may still need a bat to hit lefties. Shouldn't be too hard to swing as he is cheap too.

9. Trumbo - luke warm - been playing better, but not a great market for all or nothing bat-first 1B/kinda RF's. Only if we eat the salary.  Market may heat up in August.

10. Darren O'day - Cold - Not happening this year obviously, but he's still on the list as he needs to be shopped in the offseason.

11. Dylan Bundy = Luke warm - I'm sure there could be a market for him if the O's choose to shop him.  He's been hurt a little and under-performed a bit lately, but I'd still lightly shop him.  Might be an offseason trade candidate.

12. Andrew Cashner - Cold - On the DL at the moment, but if healthy in August, I say they look to swing him somewhere as he is affordable and has a year of control left.

13. Craig Gentry - Cold - Hear me out.  I think he could be, if healthy, an August trade target for a team looking for cheap speed and OF defense.  He's one of the only positive WAR players we have as he is the only competent defender we have, and I think he leads our team in steals.  Not going to get much of a return, but someone may want him in the same way we wanted Bourne a few years ago.

Maybe by This Time Next Year: Cobb, Bleier, Davis - No market at all, but if Bleier can return from injury, Cobb can put together an above average season, and/or the O's can find a creative way to shed Davis' contract, these could be some people to trade away around the all-star break next year.  Big IFs though.

Overall, we have value to work with over the next couple of months and into the offseason.  Showing some patience with a few of the these chips may be wise as the markets could grow in the offseason, but we have enough chips to really jump start the this rebuild.

[weams]