Orioles Top 50 Prospects - Midseason Edition...now including the Gausman/Schoop returns

[hoosiers]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I think it will be low next year, but above 120 in 2020 as the Orioles start to build an attempt to be competitive in 2021. 120 is going to be a very low payroll by 2021. 

Can't see a scenario where we are at $120M in 2020.  I think it will be closer to half that as we will have shed or moved Gausman, Schoop, Trumbo and others while breaking in kids making the minimum.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Can't see a scenario where we are at $120M in 2020.  I think it will be closer to half that as we will have shed or moved Gausman, Schoop, Trumbo and others while breaking in kids making the minimum.  

Trumbo, O'Day and Cashner will probably not be with the team after next season.  We don't know what the O's will do with Schoop, Gausman and Bundy.

[Ohfan67]

26 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Can't see a scenario where we are at $120M in 2020.  I think it will be closer to half that as we will have shed or moved Gausman, Schoop, Trumbo and others while breaking in kids making the minimum.  

$60M? Different sources have different payroll totals for MLB. For example, this payroll tracker shows that the White Sox had the lowest payroll this year at $71M (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/), where the USAToday site notes the Rays as the lowest payroll at $62M and the A's at $69M (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2018/team/all/). Regardless, note that it is actually quite difficult to spend less than 70M right now. It will be much harder in 2020. The union is very focused on "tanking" teams (rightfully so, in my opinion). It will be even harder for the Orioles to drive their payroll to the bottom of the league because of outstanding contracts (is Chris Davis really going to consume 1/3 of the payroll?). It is also not their history. I think they will start sprinkling in some FA's in 2020 as they attempt to climb out of the cellar. A 120M payroll will probably rank about 22nd or even 23rd in MLB in 2020. 

 

 

[bpilktree67]

7 hours ago, POR said:

The trades had improved the farm system but top ten seems like a huge stretch.

Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros, Twins, Brewers and Angels.  That is fourteen teams that  I think still clearly have a better system than the Orioles.  Of these teams,  who do you think he Orioles are ahead of?   

I think the Orioles will be better then  a couple of them by the start of next year especially if they sign Mesa and move Gausman or Schoop.  The Angels are not that strong they have Adel but then pretty big drop off.  The Brewers through trades and others loosing prospect status will be weaker.  The Astros have lost lot of their depth and if Tucker graduates will have couple top guys then a big drop off.  I could see Orioles anywhere from 8-14 depending what moves they make from now til spring training.  

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, POR said:

The trades had improved the farm system but top ten seems like a huge stretch.

Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros, Twins, Brewers and Angels.  That is fourteen teams that  I think still clearly have a better system than the Orioles.  Of these teams,  who do you think he Orioles are ahead of?   

Astros, Twins, Brewers, Angels are all arguments one could make. For the record I said close to the top 10. 

[Ohfan67]

23 hours ago, weams said:

Yes. I think that payroll will be under 120 million in each of the next two seasons. Pride. You?

Thank the baseball gods I didn’t really bet on it. I had no idea the Orioles were capable of what they did today. This really is a blow-it-up rebuild. Yowzer!!

[weams]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

Thank the baseball gods I didn’t really bet on it. I had no idea the Orioles were capable of what they did today. This really is a blow-it-up rebuild. Yowzer!!

I'm proud of them. O'Day!

[25 Nuggets]

I took a look at the salaries and it looks like the Orioles are only going to be paying four players (Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, Cashner) an appreciable amount of money in 2019, for a total of $60 mil committed.  I think their payroll as is would be a little over $80 mil.

[Frobby]

Luke, just curious if you plan to insert the players we acquired yesterday into this list, or just wait for the offseason.   

My impression: we now have a farm system that is well above average in overall depth, but is lacking in truly elite (top 30 MLB) talent.   Hopefully we have some guys who will emerge from this depth as above average major leaguers, but there’s not many you can identify with a lot of confidence right now.   Our player development staff has its work cut out for it.

[orioles119]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Luke, just curious if you plan to insert the players we acquired yesterday into this list, or just wait for the offseason.   

My impression: we now have a farm system that is well above average in overall depth, but is lacking in truly elite (top 30 MLB) talent.   Hopefully we have some guys who will emerge from this depth as above average major leaguers, but there’s not many you can identify with a lot of confidence right now.   Our player development staff has its work cut out for it.

Also have to consider the #1 pick coming in as well...

[weams]

15 hours ago, weams said:

I'm proud of them. O'Day!

 

[POR]

On 7/31/2018 at 2:44 PM, Luke-OH said:

Astros, Twins, Brewers, Angels are all arguments one could make. For the record I said close to the top 10. 

Luke,

I think you do a great job here and don't want to get into a pissing match with you.

However, in Jim Callis' mailbag he said the Twins were in the top half dozen systems and the Orioles were about 20th.

   https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-improved-farm-system-at-trade-deadline/c-288487900?tid=151437456

James Anderson of Rotowire came out with a ranking of farm system yesterday after the deadline deals. The Astros are 6th Twins 7th, Angels 9th and even after the Schoop trade the Brewers are 15th.  The Orioles are 21st.

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=40690

I think the Orioles passed the Brewers after the Schoop.  I also think the Orioles are better than Callis and Anderson are saying, but clearly behind Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros, Twins,  and Angels.   Fairly or no there is a bias for teams with a strong recent development history. 

  

[GoldGlove21]

On 7/31/2018 at 8:55 AM, Ohfan67 said:

I think it will be low next year, but above 120 in 2020 as the Orioles start to build an attempt to be competitive in 2021. 120 is going to be a very low payroll by 2021. 

$120M will be 23rd or 24th in MLB come 2020. The MASN dispute will eventually hurt the team too.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

$120M will be 23rd or 24th in MLB come 2020. The MASN dispute will eventually hurt the team too.

It has to be hurting them already, since MASN can’t readily distribute money that is in dispute.    

[Sydnor]

3 hours ago, POR said:

Luke,

I think you do a great job here and don't want to get into a pissing match with you.

However, in Jim Callis' mailbag he said the Twins were in the top half dozen systems and the Orioles were about 20th.

   https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-improved-farm-system-at-trade-deadline/c-288487900?tid=151437456

James Anderson of Rotowire came out with a ranking of farm system yesterday after the deadline deals. The Astros are 6th Twins 7th, Angels 9th and even after the Schoop trade the Brewers are 15th.  The Orioles are 21st.

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=40690

I think the Orioles passed the Brewers after the Schoop.  I also think the Orioles are better than Callis and Anderson are saying, but clearly behind Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros, Twins,  and Angels.   Fairly or no there is a bias for teams with a strong recent development history. 

  

I don’t want to speak for Luke, but I’m not sure Callis and Luke are really at odds. First, Luke said close to a top 10 system, and while that’s certainly different than number 20, Callis is probably doing this on the fly without the opportunity to truly review the systems. Second, my reading of Luke’s pieces is that he would agree that the system lacks significant high end prospects with a combination of ceiling and floor. Luke has noted the risks associated with Mountcastle (bat plays if he moves off of third, but he has less value), Diaz (needs to get the ball in the air more), and Hall (needs to continue developing a third pitch and avoid injury), and they are the only players he has assessed at a 55 FV.

In my opinion, a combination of ceiling and floor is why VVM and the next few drafts will be so important. The organization desperately needs guys with a high ceiling and a decent floor. Based on what I’ve read, Encarnacion and Carmona have a higher ceiling than a lot of guys in the system, but also a very low floor. I hope the organization hits on VVM and it’s top picks in the next few drafts that have high ceilings and decent floors and adds some 60+ FV players to the system because that is what will determine whether the rebuild takes 3-5 years or significantly longer.