Grade the Gausman Deal

[e16bball]

I think Evan Phillips is an underrated piece of this deal, kinda like Cody Carroll. Not very interesting at first glance -- but he was one of the 2-3 best relievers at the AAA level, even better than Carroll has been. At age 23. Big K rate (13+ K/9) and a 2.05 FIP. to back up the 1.99 ERA.  With the way that relievers are always in high demand, I like the idea of adding a couple guys who could pitch well out of the pen and become highly valued pieces themselves in a couple years. Zimmermann might end up in that same boat -- pretty dominant against lefties, and his stuff (which seems like it might be a little marginal as a starter) would probably play up out of the bullpen as well.

Brett Cumberland is a top 100 prospect on the recent FG midseason updated top 131, one of their top 7-8 catching prospects in all of baseball (depending on how you view Mejia). So he obviously has some cachet in scouting circles, and it looks like he's been a pretty consistently solid hitter. Encarnacion's BB rate is a little scary, but he looks like he'll be one of the best projectable athletes in the system from the moment he dons a uniform. Sorta odd that the "lottery ticket" prospect would be the most highly valued piece in the deal, but the upside looks tremendous for him. 

It's not exciting, but the international money and the salary relief are also factors. They've gotten their international pool to the point that for VVM  not to be an Oriole, he would have to say "no" to clearly the biggest offer. That's pretty cool. And I don't think we can begrudge ownership a few efforts to try to save some money -- and $12M is more than just "some money." They shelled out a ton to keep that team together and competing from 2015 to 2017, probably more than the profits could really justify, and I think we do have to keep in mind that it's a business.

 

The other thing is, I think we all got really gassed up about the possible return for Gausman when we heard a lot of teams were in on him. But the bottom line is that he's just not that great. Per FG, he's been barely one of the top 50 starters over the last two seasons. That's not likely to return a big haul, even with some control remaining. And to my eye, the signs for the future are not great for Gausman. Substantial drop in velocity, substantial drop in K rate, FIP/xFIP/SIERA way up over the last two seasons. hard hit ball rate is up. Those are all big red flags for me.

In all, I can't say it's an exciting deal. We didn't get back anyone who looks like a star in the making. But we got back a number of solid pieces again, and we got some other assets that will go into the ledger and not straight onto the field but which might have some meaningful value in the long haul. It's not a terrible deal. Especially if the red flags in Gausman's data actually are indicators of possible trouble for him down the road. I think there's a (significantly) greater than zero chance that we might be looking back on this feeling glad we got some value for him when we did, as opposed to beating ourselves up because we should have held out for more. I gave it a C, just because I don't think we had to trade him now instead of in the offseason.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, theocean said:

Compare Wade Miley's stats to Kevin Gausman's stats prior to when they were traded. Both had two years of control, Miley was 29 and Gausman is 27:

Wade Miley:

2012	25	ARI	NL	16	11	.593	3.33	32	29	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	79	72	14	37	0	144	2	1	6	807	122	3.15	1.182	8.9	0.6	1.7	6.7	3.89	AS,RoY-2
2013	26	ARI	NL	10	10	.500	3.55	33	33	0	0	0	0	202.2	201	88	80	21	66	4	147	4	0	13	847	109	3.98	1.317	8.9	0.9	2.9	6.5	2.23
2014	27	ARI	NL	8	12	.400	4.34	33	33	0	0	0	0	201.1	207	103	97	23	75	3	183	4	0	9	866	86	3.98	1.401	9.3	1.0	3.4	8.2	2.44
2015	28	BOS	AL	11	11	.500	4.46	32	32	0	1	0	0	193.2	201	98	96	17	64	0	147	4	1	10	831	96	3.81	1.368	9.3	0.8	3.0	6.8	2.30
2016	29	SEA	AL	7	8	.467	4.98	19	19	0	1	1	0	112.0	117	62	62	18	34	1	82	3	2	5	469	81	4.76	1.348	9.4	1.4	2.7	6.6	2.41

Kevin Gausman

2014	23	BAL	AL	7	7	.500	3.57	20	20	0	1	0	0	113.1	111	48	45	7	38	0	88	1	0	9	476	110	3.41	1.315	8.8	0.6	3.0	7.0	2.32
2015	24	BAL	AL	4	7	.364	4.25	25	17	1	0	0	0	112.1	109	56	53	17	29	1	103	2	0	7	470	97	4.10	1.228	8.7	1.4	2.3	8.3	3.55
2016	25	BAL	AL	9	12	.429	3.61	30	30	0	0	0	0	179.2	183	76	72	28	47	1	174	5	0	8	757	119	4.10	1.280	9.2	1.4	2.4	8.7	3.70
2017	26	BAL	AL	11	12	.478	4.68	34	34	0	0	0	0	186.2	208	99	97	29	71	0	179	5	1	8	816	94	4.48	1.495	10.0	1.4	3.4	8.6	2.52
2018	27	BAL	AL	5	8	.385	4.43	21	21	0	0	0	0	124.0	139	62	61	21	32	0	104	5	0	6	534	95	4.58	1.379	10.1	1.5	2.3	7.5	3.25

Not that TOTALLY different. Seattle got Ariel Miranda. The O's got much more than Ariel Miranda.

 

Gausman had an extra year of control on Miley and had 0.5 rWAR the season he was traded.

[Hallas]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Right, but c'mon man.  You're acting like he's a 4 WAR pitcher each year.  He's had only one year with 4 WAR.  1.2, 1.2, 4, 2.0, 2.3 so far this year.  

2.3 this year, on pace for around 3.  Not the greatest season, but ranked 37th in WAR.  So he's a borderline #2/3 this year.  And he was a borderline #1/2 in 2016.  2014 and 2015 were partial seasons for him - he had 20 starts in 2014 and 17 starts in 2015.  But if he played them out, they'd probably be roughly league-average seasons.  So out of his full seasons, he's got 1 good year, 1 pretty good year (assuming he  doesn't implode for the remainder of this season) and 1 mediocre year.  Not an ace, but not exactly terrible.  I don't love this trade because I think that someone with tools as good as as him should be valued a little higher, but it is what it is.

[Ripken]

C.  It goes to a B with V2 signed and to an A when Gausman's shoulder falls off in September.

[SilverRocket]

4 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Brett Cumberland is a top 100 prospect on the recent FG midseason updated top 131, one of their top 7-8 catching prospects in all of baseball (depending on how you view Mejia). So he obviously has some cachet in scouting circles, and it looks like he's been a pretty consistently solid hitter.

How is Cumberland #99 in the Fangraphs list but listed somewhere in the 20-25 range for their organization? That's not in the same stratosphere.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

[Hallas]

16 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

People are Wietersing Gausman. That is, being disappointed in somebody because of original, unrealistic expectations instead of being happy that he was at least productive. 2-4 WAR year in and year out is solid to me.

I just had a flashback to  mattwietersfacts.com.  Sadly, it looks like a domain squatter took over and now the site is a blog about mattresses...

I'm also amazed at how some people thought he was a bust, after going to 3 all star games, winning 2 GGs, and getting MVP votes one year while putting up 5 win and 4 win seasons back-to-back.

[TouchemAll]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, if it's not all potential with him then I don't understand how in every spring I keep seeing people saying "Well, if this is the year that Gasuman can put it together..."

Yup...

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

How is Cumberland #99 in the Fangraphs list but listed somewhere in the 20-25 range for their organization? That's not in the same stratosphere.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

Prospect analysis often differs considerable between evaluators. Fangraphs is high on Cumberland, they love guys with patience and big loft in the swing, Cumberland is both of those things. I think his age vs level is exaggerating how good his approach is. I'm concerned about the hit tool, need to watch more video though.

[Luke-OH]

One thing with the Gausman deal is that the moving of O'Day's salary from a value perspective is almost worth a top 100 prospect.

I know many hate clearing salary instead of getting better/more prospects in return (I do too). If you trust the Orioles to seriously invest in scouting/infrastructure and the international market, you want them to cut salary. Revenue will be down and the team was overextended on MLB payroll. 

The one thing I'll say now before fully assessing the prospect return is that it's been a long time since the Orioles have shown this type of decisiveness (in any direction), which makes me want to give them the benefit of the doubt with moves like this. 

 

[MachoMachadoMan]

If the Orioles sign VVM thanks to the boost International signing money from this trade, I'll consider this trade a major success. If they can't ink VVM and are left buying up a lot that's left behind, then I'll have a much different read on the deal. 

[Gofannon]

I feel like I spent this morning and afternoon hearing how good Gausman is (better than Archer) and have spent the past three hours hearing how he isn't really that good.

[Slappy]

B, but this trade has more upside than the Schoop trade depending on what we do with the essentially $12 million in cash we get.  I like the makeup of 3 of the prospects too (not Encarnacion)

[baltfan]

Keith Law really isn’t impressed. 

 

This could easily end up a lot of nothing for Baltimore in exchange for a pitcher who was once the fourth overall pick in the draft, has two years of control remaining, and still has all of the raw ingredients required to be a top-end starter or, at worst, a really good reliever.

Jean Carlos Encarnacion is the one significant prospect in this trade, and even he is quite flawed, a 20-year-old who has drawn 12 unintentional walks against 100 strikeouts in 379 PA for low-A Rome this year. The third baseman has arm strength and projection in the body, with potential plus raw power to come, but I can't think of a prospect who struggled this badly with plate discipline and wasn't super young for his level who panned out

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/24246659/kevin-gausman-blossom-braves-deal-orioles

 

 

[weams]

 

[baltfan]

The more I look at this trade the more I don’t like it.  We really need to get something good with that international slot money.  The headliner here really worries me.  Too many strikeouts and no walks.