An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, tntoriole said:

The problem is we need to hit another Machado caliber player in this draft and there ain’t no Machado caliber player in this draft. 

There are excellent players in just about every draft.    But let’s be clear: we are not one superstar away from being a good team.   We’re about 15 solid major league players away.    One draft pick isn’t going to decide whether we are able to rebuild.    The Astros may have blown two 1:1 picks and yet look at their franchise.    

[terphoopsfan]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The O's could do a lot worse at 1-1 than another Wieters.

.256/.318/.421/.739 for a #1 whose best years for the Orioles ended at the beginning of Year 5 of his tenure. Plus his defensive skills were a little overrated, expect for his pitch framing which was atrocious. I understand it's a crapshoot but I'd think we should expect more.

 

A team with less than 50 wins can't afford to miss on a #1, regardless if there's a generational talent there or not.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, terphoopsfan said:

.256/.318/.421/.739 for a #1 whose best years for the Orioles ended at the beginning of Year 5 of his tenure. Plus his defensive skills were a little overrated, expect for his pitch framing which was atrocious. I understand it's a crapshoot but I'd think we should expect more.

 

A team with less than 50 wins can't afford to miss on a #1, regardless if there's a generational talent there or not.

First off you don't win a platinum glove without some defensive skills.  Secondly early in his career his framing was above average, as judged by Mike Fast who was the guy who started quantifying pitch framing.

Thirdly, as Frobby already mentioned the Astros did indeed miss at 1-1 and it ended up pretty OK for them.

And lastly the elbow injury obviously altered his career arc so I would pay a lot more attention to what he accomplished before the injury.

[terphoopsfan]

Fair enough, I'll agree to a point except the on Astros. As long as the Angelos' own the team you can forget on having a front office like that. They had a plan, ownership approved and it worked. What's our plan?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, terphoopsfan said:

Fair enough, I'll agree to a point except the on Astros. As long as the Angelos' own the team you can forget on having a front office like that. They had a plan, ownership approved and it worked. What's our plan?

Honestly?

If things go as poorly as I fear hitting on 1-1 isn't going to save them.

Look at the Angels.  This year they had Trout and Ohtani and they finished under .500.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There are excellent players in just about every draft.    But let’s be clear: we are not one superstar away from being a good team.   We’re about 15 solid major league players away.    One draft pick isn’t going to decide whether we are able to rebuild.    The Astros may have blown two 1:1 picks and yet look at their franchise.    

Oh I agree..in fact I was going to say at least 3 Machados and a bunch of Steve Pearces, etc.  but yes, I agree completely

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The O's could do a lot worse at 1-1 than another Wieters.

That is true, but only because the 1-1 slot is more than a little unreliable at producing reliable superstar caliber players ...We picked Manny Machado in 2010 who is great, but nowhere near as much as Chris Sale who was 13 in that same draft.   This happens all the time because baseball is much harder to predict than football or basketball. 

[tntoriole]

8 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Can we try to get a Machado-caliber player who runs the bases even if he thinks he's hit a HR or is going to be out?

All players have something that doesn’t work well.  I will take the Machado with the flaws every time. 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off you don't win a platinum glove without some defensive skills.  Secondly early in his career his framing was above average, as judged by Mike Fast who was the guy who started quantifying pitch framing.

Thirdly, as Frobby already mentioned the Astros did indeed miss at 1-1 and it ended up pretty OK for them.

And lastly the elbow injury obviously altered his career arc so I would pay a lot more attention to what he accomplished before the injury.

Wieters was a very solid player, not picked at 1:1 but would have been a middle of the pack outcome at 1:1 if he’d been picked there.    I’ll leave it to the experts to determine the odds that Rutschman will be better, worse or about the same as Wieters.   But I agree one could do a lot worse than another Wieters at 1:1.

Like I’ve said, I don’t think it’s worth worrying about this much until late May of next year when high school seasons are ending and college seasons are nearing an end.    Too much development to happen between now and then to make judgments now.     

[Greg Pappas]

1/2   Updated the OP with the following...

• Posted by PerfectGame on November 5, 2018   [Their updated list of the Top 500 High School Prospects, though you need a subscription to see beyond the Top 10]

Quote

1	Bobby Witt Jr  6-1  185  R/R	SS	Colleyville, TX	Oklahoma	Colleyville Heritage	EC Sox	East Coast Sox Select
	Outstanding defensive SS and can really hit. Every time he hit this summer you almost expected a 100+ exit velos and extra bases. 6.4 60 at PG National. Very good in Jupiter
2	Riley Greene  6-2  190  L/L	OF	Oviedo, FL	Florida	Hagerty	FTB Tucci / SF Giants 17u	Giants Scout Team/FTB
	Can flat out hit. Finds the barrel almost every AB and ball jumps. Really impressed at WWBA, PG National and PG All American Classic. Mashed in Jupiter
3	Daniel Espino  6-4  200  R/R	RHP	Statesboro, GA	Louisiana State	Georgia Premier Academy	GBSA Rays	GBSA RAYS
	Up to 98 mph at PG National and has shown a wipe out slider. Very good at WWBA, East Coast Pro and PG All American Classic
4	Brennan Malone  6-5  210  R/R	RHP	Matthews, NC	North Carolina	IMG Academy	On Deck O's	On Deck O's
	Arm really works well and up to 96 mph at PG National and breaking ball is showing good progress. Keeps getting better each outing. Lights out at PG All American Classic. Up to 97 mph in Jupiter
5	Corbin Carroll  5-10  165  L/L	OF	Seattle, WA	UCLA	Lakeside	Canes National & WW Sweets	Canes National
	Outstanding this fall at Ways to Play and in Jupiter. Bat really impressed at both PG National and TOS. Outstanding at Area Codes and PG Underclass All American Games. MVP of PG All American Classic and a HR Derby finalist. Special bat
6	CJ Abrams  6-2  182  L/R	SS	Alpharetta, GA	Alabama	Blessed Trinity Cath	DRB Elite	DRB Elite 17U
	Smooth easy swing and ball jumps off his barrel usually to a gap and he uses his 6.2 speed to fly around the bases.
7	Jerrion Ealy  5-10  192  R/R	OF	Carthage, MS	Mississippi	Jackson Preparatory	Team Georgia	Padres Scout Team (Scorpions/Team GA)
	Outstanding athlete. Good hitting tools. Ran 6.13 at PG National, 96 from OF and ball jumps off his barrel
8	Rece Hinds  6-4  210  R/R	SS	Niceville, FL	Louisiana State	IMG Academy	EC Sox	East Coast Sox Select
	Very impressive at WWBA and PG National. Bat really stands out with big power. 98 mph across the IF as well. HR Derby champion at PG All American Classic. Very good in Jupiter
9	Hunter Barco  6-4  208  L/L	LHP	Jacksonville, FL	Florida	The Bolles	East Cobb Astros	Triton Rays - Scout
	Up to 94 on the mound. Lights out in Jupiter, PG National and PG All American Classic
10	Tyler Callihan  6-1  200  L/R	3B	Neptune Beach, FL	South Carolina	Providence	Elite Squad	Houston Astros Scout Team/Elite Squad
	Showed big power in his bat this summer with 400+ foot HRs

 

[Greg Pappas]

2/2   Also, here's a bonus video from Perfect Game:  

Quote

A few of the top prospects from the 2019 class discuss their approach at the plate. Bobby Witt Jr., Rece Hinds, Riley Greene, and Corbin Carroll show the mechanics that have helped them become top hitters in their class.

 

[Luke-OH]

11 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

1/2   Updated the OP with the following...

• Posted by PerfectGame on November 5, 2018   [Their updated list of the Top 500 High School Prospects, though you need a subscription to see beyond the Top 10]

 

Of those guys, CJ Abrams seems like a guy that might jump into serious 1-1 consideration. He is uber-athletic, he can stick up the middle, and has the feel to hit. He needs to get stronger, but he has the frame for it and he could be an real impact talent if power comes.

A little further down the rankings, a guy I really like is Spencer Jones (LHP/1B). He's a legit two-way prospect, but I like him better on the mound where he has an athletic delivery. He's 6-7 and projectable but is already a strike-thrower up to 93mph with a good CB. If he doesn't jump into the top tier of HS prospects (which I think he will), he'd be a guy to buy down to the O's second pick if they go college at 1-1.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I don't follow amateur baseball, but with everything I've read, is there any reason not to take Bobby Witt Jr. with the first overall pick?

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I don't follow amateur baseball, but with everything I've read, is there any reason not to take Bobby Witt Jr. with the first overall pick?

Some people have a 30 or 40 on his future hit tool. I've read reports of him swinging through 91 straight middle middle at times. 

Now all the other tools are plus, but the hit tool is often the crux of a player's profile. The swing is fine and the bat speed is plus, so it's apparently just a concerning lack of consistent bat to ball. It might just be a focus thing, or getting too big trying to crush everything. It definitely adds risk to the profile though.

I like Witt Jr and I haven't seen him live so I'm just going off of scouting reports. He's not a tier above Rutschman or some of the top prep bats, so it's far from a foregone conclusion even if you are high on Witt Jr.

For example, CJ Abrams is faster, has a similar arm, also plays SS, is more physically projectable, and has a better feel to hit currently. Witt Jr has more present power and more polished defense. 

Plus, we don't know what the HS players will look like in the spring, players can change their profile quickly with added strength, size, or general physicality at that age.

[Can_of_corn]

51 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Some people have a 30 or 40 on his future hit tool. I've read reports of him swinging through 91 straight middle middle at times. 

Now all the other tools are plus, but the hit tool is often the crux of a player's profile. The swing is fine and the bat speed is plus, so it's apparently just a concerning lack of consistent bat to ball. It might just be a focus thing, or getting too big trying to crush everything. It definitely adds risk to the profile though.

I like Witt Jr and I haven't seen him live so I'm just going off of scouting reports. He's not a tier above Rutschman or some of the top prep bats, so it's far from a foregone conclusion even if you are high on Witt Jr.

For example, CJ Abrams is faster, has a similar arm, also plays SS, is more physically projectable, and has a better feel to hit currently. Witt Jr has more present power and more polished defense. 

Plus, we don't know what the HS players will look like in the spring, players can change their profile quickly with added strength, size, or general physicality at that age.

And he's old.