An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

Ok. Every year is different. We just need to get this right. I am good with that simple result.

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Rowell was not a scrub. He just became one. 

Well, yes...yes, he did. And that was my point. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

There may be one that does, sure. We’ll see where things are at the end of May. Are you saying that you advocate picking at 1:1 based on need, and not on BPA? If you are, I would say that, other than Adam Hall, and perhaps Grenier, we are devoid of up the middle athletic talent in the system. That is more of a need to me at the moment. I am good either way. We just cannot miss on this pick. No scrubs like Hobgood or Rowell. 

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

[weams]

 

[Greg Pappas]

31 minutes ago, weams said:

 

He may be the safest pick among HS players. Very good player.

[Greg Pappas]

54 minutes ago, weams said:

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see evidence of this. Since the start of the draft in 1965 there have been 18 pitchers and 36 position players selected #1 overall. In this piece from ESPN, which ranked the best of the #1's from '65 thru 2008, it's clear-cut to me that position players fared much better, even taking the 2:1 advantage in number of selections into consideration.

Since 2008, Strasburg has been outstanding, Cole very good, but Appel and Aiken busts. Mize was just selected and there hasn't been enough time to rate him. Harper and Correa have been outstanding, Swanson is young but has struggled thus far, Moniak terrible, and Lewis too soon to tell.

For me, position players have fared better.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, weams said:

I don't hear anything. I just think a pitcher will pop up. 

The next Dylan Bundy or Adam Loewen.  I'm so excited! 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The next Dylan Bundy or Adam Loewen.  I'm so excited! 

Draftees can no longer sign ML contracts.

[Moose Milligan]

Strong chance we have the #1 pick in 2020, too. 

2 hours ago, weams said:

 

There's not many things prettier in sports than a lefty swing.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

No evidence to support that.  The top 7 1:1’s in terms of career WAR were all position players, and 12 of the top 13.   The 18 pitchers chosen 1:1 have averaged 12.7 WAR; the 35 hitters have averaged 23.4.    Pitchers are way more risky and don’t have the upside to justify the extra risk.   

I’m not saying you never take a pitcher, but you definitely shouldn’t give them a preference.   

[Moose Milligan]

OH Battleground 2019:  What to do with the first round pick.

[weams]

The Orioles Draft First in Each of the Rounds. They don't get any comp picks this year. Except the competitive balance, which they will probably trade to offload payroll. 

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, weams said:

The Orioles Draft First in Each of the Rounds. They don't get any comp picks this year. Except the competitive balance, which they will probably trade to offload payroll. 

I’d be shocked if they traded the competitive balance pick.   They’ve dumped a ton of payroll and need to start stockpiling talent.   

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be shocked if they traded the competitive balance pick.   They’ve dumped a ton of payroll and need to start stockpiling talent.   

It's a B pick this year. Correct?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be shocked if they traded the competitive balance pick.   They’ve dumped a ton of payroll and need to start stockpiling talent.   

That is what you or I would do.

They would trade for International slot money and then offer less for the top remaining players.

The O's have twice used competitive balance picks as a way to dump bad contracts.

I've not seen evidence that stockpiling talent is a priority over lowering costs.

I don't think they've earned the benefit of the doubt.