A crazy idea - Felix Hernandez

[BohKnowsBmore]

Most everyone in the media, national and local, and on this board seems to be in agreement that this team will not be very good next season.  They might be very very bad (I believe 2018 levels of bad to be unlikely, personally).  Simply put, this team is not going to compete in 2019.  The way the roster is structured going into next season needs to be thinking about how we can best position the team to be successful in 2020 and beyond.

That brings me to Felix Hernandez.  What does a former Cy Young who is pretty bad himself in 2018 have to do with the future of the Orioles? That's a great question.  First, a few statements that I believe to be fairly uncontroversial:

• The Orioles payroll going into 2019 looks to be significantly lower than going into 2018
• The Orioles have three definite starters at this point: Bundy, Cobb and Cashner
• The Mariners have been in the hunt for the second WC for quite some time and have not gone away
• The Mariners cannot be thrilled about owing Felix Hernandez $27MM for 2019
• The Orioles and Mariners have dealt with each other with some level of frequency in the past

What if the Orioles took on Felix Hernandez, with the Mariners eating somewhere between $7MM and $13.5MM of his final year?  Additionally, the Mariners would send a B-ish prospect that falls on the back-end of their organizational top-10.  A guy like Juan Querecuto (SS in rookie ball) or Wyatt Mills (RHP in high A).

This would achieve a few things:

• Continue to add more talent to the O's farm system for 2020 and beyond
• Make use of newly-found payroll space to add assets
• Give the team someone who at the very least will eat some innings
• If he is somehow able to rebound to something like an  4.0 - 4.5 ERA innings eater, he may have some value at the deadline in 2019
• The Mariners would have additional payroll flexibility to improve their team

Additionally, more veteran arms at the big club will make highly-regarded arms at the farm force their way up with play, rather than being handed a starting spot by default (something that hindered development of the "Calvary" IMO).

I realize that this type of deal is unlikely to happen, but I think it would be a creative way to leverage our position and add more talent to the team.

Now, go ahead and tell me why this is the worst idea ever.

[TheOtherRipken]

In general, I understand your thought process, but I do not think it is likely that taking a declining veteran from Seattle and moving him to Baltimore will help him rebound.  I do agree, we should be targeting bounce-back guys this offseason. 

[Can_of_corn]

Wasn't there an eerily similar thread on this subject earlier in the year?

[Finisher]

He's been getting worse by the year. He's pretty close to being done as a major league starter.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Finisher said:

He's been getting worse by the year. He's pretty close to being done as a major league starter.

No doubt.  If that were not the case, the entire premise wouldn't really make much sense as Seattle wouldn't be willing to (hypothetically) send a prospect of any significance for us to take on the contract.

It would be great to acquire established studs on good contracts for not much in the way of consideration, but that's not really something other teams would be lining up to engage in.

[BohKnowsBmore]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wasn't there an eerily similar thread on this subject earlier in the year?

Perhaps.

I haven't been here much throughout the season.

[BohKnowsBmore]

20 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

In general, I understand your thought process, but I do not think it is likely that taking a declining veteran from Seattle and moving him to Baltimore will help him rebound.  I do agree, we should be targeting bounce-back guys this offseason. 

Fair point.  That said, any rebound would be gravy. The key to the suggested deal would be getting a guy who could eat some innings (because someone has to) and a decent prospect in exchange for our taking on a portion of the contract.

[Malike]

Could probably get Gallardo back cheaper. The King is no more.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm just going to toss out the fact that Hernandez has full trade protection status due to being a 10/5 player.  I think it very unlikely he would approve a trade to Baltimore.

[BohKnowsBmore]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just going to toss out the fact that Hernandez has full trade protection status due to being a 10/5 player.  I think it very unlikely he would approve a trade to Baltimore.

Very fair point.  That is something I thought about but neglected to add as a complication in the OP.  Counterpoint would be that he might welcome the opportunity to pitch every day (not sure if SEA feels they can promise him that next year).

I would be interested to hear you thoughts on the idea itself.

[Finisher]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

No doubt.  If that were not the case, the entire premise wouldn't really make much sense as Seattle wouldn't be willing to (hypothetically) send a prospect of any significance for us to take on the contract

So we just traded away a borderline TOR arm and compromised his value by including a salary dump but now we're going to absorb an even worse salary dump to acquire some fringe prospect? Real teams don't give away prospects to salary dump, they just eat the contract and move on.

[nate22]

Felix is topping out in the vey low 90s now. I don't see a rebound coming.

[Barnaby Graves]

Take all the guys who were good for 6 years or so, and then have been declining for 2 years.  In one pile stack up the ones that recovered to 80%+ of their former greatness the next year, and in the other pile the rest.  Which pile is bigger, and by how much?  And what is the discount needed to make that bet worth it?

The shelf life on a professional baseball player is pretty short.  Same with other sports, with varying degrees of exceptions depending on the game.  It also seems greatly affected by the degree of PED policing.

I love the creative thinking but with the number of innings on this guy, and the trending, and the general talent deficit of the team, it's a no for me.  We need to give young talent the chance to compete in the ultimate minimum-pressure environment: where the opposition is toughest and the need to perform is nil.  Cause we won't win more than 60 for some time, it seems.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Very fair point.  That is something I thought about but neglected to add as a complication in the OP.  Counterpoint would be that he might welcome the opportunity to pitch every day (not sure if SEA feels they can promise him that next year).

I would be interested to hear you thoughts on the idea itself.

I don't think he'd want to uproot his family to go across the country to play for a team coming off a ~110 loss season to play in the AL East in a hitter friendly stadium.

Unless the O's were willing to extend him I don't see how this is attractive for him.