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How Long is the Road to Contention?

WarehouseChatter

By WarehouseChatter
in Orioles Talk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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49 minutes ago, Woody Held said:

My concern is right now we don’t even know who will be driving the rebuild.  Changing the staff now would require whoever takes over 6 months to build a staff and organization of there own choosing, if management even allows that.  We may be looking at 4 to 5 years

 

 

I'm not sure it matters as long as the Orioles don't attempt to be stupid and spend any money over the next two years while doing it.  Half measures avail us none. 

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Odenton Mike High-A

Odenton Mike

Posted
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8 hours ago, ChuckS said:

At this moment it is infinite IMO.

We neither have the talent in the organization right now at any level or the financial resources to make contending a possibility the next three years.

We have plenty of potential complimentary pieces but the next two drafts and international signings will determine if we can contend again in the next five years. More top end talent is needed. I see a bunch of potential regulars and 3-5 starters but not a lot of potential stars that winning teams need. I’m writing off 19-21. In a best case scenario 21 is a .500 season and we start winning again in 22. 

My thoughts exactly! I am looking at the 2019 schedule and I don't see 40-45 wins there either so plan on drafting 1-2 in 2020. The Orioles have to nail these upcoming drafts - top end talent is a must!

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brooksfrankjim Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

brooksfrankjim

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We had 14 years of hell under this management.  We then had 5 years where we made the post season 3 times.  We have now had 2 more years of hell.  There doesn’t seem to be much talent in the farm system.  Macphail was here 5 years until he left and We won the next year.  We are likely looking at a minimum of four or five years and given our dysfunction it could be more than a decade.  

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

Posted
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22 hours ago, WarehouseChatter said:

With a 42-105 record entering play tonight, the answer from some of you may be "never".  Poor record, lack of leadership, and questions about the Orioles longevity may cloud the picture.  That said, IF the Orioles:

  • Land the Mesa brothers
  • Draft a very solid contributor with the #1 pick (say Bobby Witt Jr.) 
  • Get solid draft returns beyond the #1 pick (including in 2019 and 2020 when we're still going to be drafting high)
  • See 1-2 players out of a group that includes Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays and Diaz develop into solid MLB contributors
  • And, most importantly, see Bundy return to early season form, and have 2 of the pitchers in their farm system turn into a 2-3 in the rotation (a group that includes Hall, Rodriguez, Harvey, Akin and Lowther)

Does that get us close?  Of course, if once the team forms an identity, we would add some free agents to finish the puzzle.  Some will pounce on me for suggesting that the above will happen.  But it could.  Let's dream a bit.

I look back at the 2012 team.  Guys like Robert Andino, Lew Ford, Ryan Flaherty, Nate McLouth and Mark Reynolds along with pitchers like Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel and Joe Saunders got us to 90+ wins and an ALDS.  Maybe there were some smoke and mirrors going on, but we built on that and nearly had a World Series team in 2014.  

I'm just saying, I think our farm system has improved.  We have to get back to a winning culture.  Maybe the Angelos sons and either DD or a new GM (and certainly a new manager) can help create that culture.  There is no reason we can't contend again by 2021-22.  

I'll keep my head up.  Call me crazy.  Have at it.....

Most likely not in my lifetime.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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19 hours ago, brooksfrankjim said:

We had 14 years of hell under this management.  We then had 5 years where we made the post season 3 times.  We have now had 2 more years of hell.  There doesn’t seem to be much talent in the farm system.  Macphail was here 5 years until he left and We won the next year.  We are likely looking at a minimum of four or five years and given our dysfunction it could be more than a decade.  

Huh?

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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I think it will be a four or five year rebuild and I get there a couple of ways.

First, Davis needs to come off the books.  We may buy him out, but the $17M per year goes through 2022.  Sure, the Os could still compete with youngsters and a wasted $17M isn't the end of the world if the Os tried to put together a competitive $140M roster, but until that $17M properly yields about 2.5-3 WAR, it certainly hampers our competitiveness.  That said, we will have a ton of $ available to invest in free agency during our next competitive window to supplement our farm system.

Second, we may have several pitchers turn out better than expected from the guys who figure to make a good portion of starts the next four years - Bundy, hopefully Harvey, Akin, Lowther, Ortiz, Kremer, but I do not think we will be competitive until a year or two after DL Hall arrives in the majors.  Assuming no injury, I believe Hall can be up sometime in late 2021.  His real rookie season could be 2022 and he can be counted on as a contributor in a competitive team in 2023.  GrayRod should arrive at the same time or a year delayed.

Third, a strong farm system usually is a necessary precursor to competing.  We sit middle of the league right now and should have graduations of Hays, Akin, Lowther, Mountcastle, Diaz and Ortiz in the next few years.  We really won't have a top five farm system until after drafting top of the league for two or three straight years.  If we have a competitive international operation by 2020, we should be able to enter 2021 or 2022 with a top five farm system and should compete a year or two after that.

It is really difficult IMO to conjure up a scenario where we are competitive in 2021.  The NYY, BoSox and Rays should still be among the best 10 teams in MLB with Toronto perhaps not far behind.  I think our win total in 2022 will ramp up from 2021 and we should see a competitive window open up entering 2023.

It can go faster especially if the top end talent (Hays, Harvey, Mountcastle, Diaz, Ortiz, Hall, Lowther, maybe VVM) moves fast and turn out more talented, but that is difficult to see as a realistic possibility from where I sit.  We'll see.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know why people are so interested in when we'll be good again and putting a timeframe on it.  It'll happen when it happens.  Could be next year (probably not) or 5 years from now.  No way to tell.

It'll happen when it happens.  

You don’t know why people are so interested?    Uh, I think it’s because we want to know how long we’re going to have to put up with watching crappy baseball.    We know how long it lasted last time and we’d like to know if we stand a chance of having a shorter wait this time around.   

I certainly agree that nobody actually knows how long it will take.   

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You don’t know why people are so interested?    Uh, I think it’s because we want to know how long we’re going to have to put up with watching crappy baseball.    We know how long it lasted last time and we’d like to know if we stand a chance of having a shorter wait this time around.   

I certainly agree that nobody actually knows how long it will take.   

Yep, but since nobody knows I guess we'll have to wait.

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TAMC AA

TAMC

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You don’t know why people are so interested?    Uh, I think it’s because we want to know how long we’re going to have to put up with watching crappy baseball.    We know how long it lasted last time and we’d like to know if we stand a chance of having a shorter wait this time around.   

I certainly agree that nobody actually knows how long it will take.   

I am interested for the reason above, but I will say that losing baseball doesn't have to be crappy baseball.  I am reasonably entertained when players who aren't really ready for MLB are playing sound defense, making intelligent decisions, etc. but just don't quite have the moxie to beat the good teams.  The present spectacle is what I call crappy.  Multiple errors each game, stupid baseball decisions, etc.

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