Eye On The Prize - Blow It Up

[THELTSHOW]

I'm a pretty big Guthrie fan so my point of view may be a little biased, but I really see no scenario why Guthrie should be dealt. Guthrie is cheap, young, and a damn good front of the rotation starter. He has been a godsend for this staff this year in terms of both leadership and innings. At 29, Guthrie is nearing his prime and should have at lease 5 very high level years left in him.

I think that the number one priority during the deadline should be to shop Bradford and Walker, both of whom bring in very large salaries that neither of their performances warrant.

[wildcard]

The Red Sox are allowing 4.09 runs per game. 3rd in the league. They're scoring 5.02 runs/game. 2nd in the league. The combination of one of the best offenses and one of the best run prevention teams in the AL is the reason they're on pace for 94 wins.

If the O's moved up to league average in runs allowed (4.64) they'd be a 81-85 win team.

Agreed but the are 6th in ERA.

I think you are pointing out there is a difference between runs allowed and ERA. I agree. So maybe adding Wieters tightens the defense and allows then to have a equal defense. I haven't really looked at what has to happen on defense to match the Red Sox defense.

[Dr. FLK]

Blow what up? Honestly, the debate over what to do confuses the heck out of me. Do the people against making moves realize that we are in last place? If we get good pieces for the future of the team, it would be ludicrous to make no moves. Wouldn't it? We are under .500, we have a (-8) run differential, and we're in the cellar of the best division in baseball. The only possible way that this organization can move up in the standings in any meaningful way is to add organizational depth at seemingly every position.

I don't care if we get our SS of the future. I don't care if we add a long term 1B. We need depth...we need it everywhere. We have a CF, RF, and a C. So far, that's all we can count on going forward. I hope that AM is looking at all offers strictly based on the talent we would be getting back and not on need.

[wildcard]

To get a Bedard like deal you need a Bedard like player. The only two players even coming close are BRob and Guthrie as far as the usual suspects. The market has shown that BRob won't fetch a Bedard like deal. I doubt Guthrie would either. Therefore, sounds to me like you are against trading anyone and everyone. Are you against a Tejada like deal?

I agree that a trade of Sherrill or Huff would not return 5 players of the same caliber as the Bedard deal but the trade has to bring back equal quality for the talent traded.

Besides, I am not saying don't trade. I am saying that in view of how the offense is playing and the pitchers that are already here, don't trade major players now. Wait till the off season.

A player like Payton could be traded, but the return is not going to be much.

[Fan4Life]

Blow what up? Honestly, the debate over what to do confuses the heck out of me. Do the people against making moves realize that we are in last place? If we get good pieces for the future of the team, it would be ludicrous to make no moves. Wouldn't it? We are under .500, we have a (-8) run differential, and we're in the cellar of the best division in baseball. The only possible way that this organization can move up in the standings in any meaningful way is to add organizational depth at seemingly every position.

I don't care if we get our SS of the future. I don't care if we add a long term 1B. We need depth...we need it everywhere. We have a CF, RF, and a C. So far, that's all we can count on going forward. I hope that AM is looking at all offers strictly based on the talent we would be getting back and not on need.

Last place or not, this team isn't a complete failure. The offense isn't likely to continue it's torrid pace, but currently this team lacks starting pitching, and a key bullpen piece or 2. I'm all for trading almost anyone way if the deal coming back is amazing. I'm just now willing to quit on 2008, 09 and 10 already. So that means that some pieces may be better kept if the offers are lacking.

[Dr. FLK]

Last place or not, this team isn't a complete failure. The offense isn't likely to continue it's torrid pace, but currently this team lacks starting pitching, and a key bullpen piece or 2. I'm all for trading almost anyone way if the deal coming back is amazing. I'm just now willing to quit on 2008, 09 and 10 already. So that means that some pieces may be better kept if the offers are lacking.

Why can't we "quit" on 2008? What is going to happen? We're 10 games out of the WC...and we're behind 7 teams. This team has been a pleasant surprise this year, no doubt. But, 2008 certainly will involve no playoff push.

I'm not saying to give up 2009 or 2010. I'm saying we need to build for those years. I'm not saying to deal guys we have for 18 year old guys in rookie ball. We need ML ready (or close to it) talent. If we get deals that help us in the future, I think it would be crazy to turn them down to keep up the fight for 4th place in the AL East for 2008.

[TakebackOPACY]

I think your assessment is a little off. Boston has the second most productive offense when measured by runs scored. Their pitching is 6th in AL. They are a playoff contending team on a pace for 94 wins.

All I said was that given the current offense and possible things that could happen on the pitching staff I am not ready to trade away a bunch of players at the deadline for less the a Bedard like deal.

Actually what I said was:

1. Add a #2 starter.

2. Weiters will be a regular in the lineup and add to the offense.

3. Ray will be in the back end of the pen.

4. Johnson moved to the rotation.

It bears watching and in my judgement I can wait for the off season for moves to be made.

Really excellent thread!!

I know Drungo addressed this in a way, but...

The Red Sox are probably the best example of why I can't get excited about wildcard's scenario... a rotation of Guthrie, ??, JJ, D-Cab, Olson/Burres.

Red Sox rotation: Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Colon/Buckholz/Masterson.

I'll take the Red Sox pitcher at every spot if Guthrie has to be our #1. I've come to think of D-Cab as being an okay #4, too, but then I look at Boston's team and go right back to questioning it. On paper, we're nowhere close to competing with their rotation. We're 4 starting pitchers away with Guthrie as a #3 or maybe #2.

[Fan4Life]

Why can't we "quit" on 2008? What is going to happen? We're 10 games out of the WC...and we're behind 7 teams. This team has been a pleasant surprise this year, no doubt. But, 2008 certainly will involve no playoff push.

I'm not saying to give up 2009 or 2010. I'm saying we need to build for those years. I'm not saying to deal guys we have for 18 year old guys in rookie ball. We need ML ready (or close to it) talent. If we get deals that help us in the future, I think it would be crazy to turn them down to keep up the fight for 4th place in the AL East for 2008.

I think I agree with you, posting the gving up on 2008 was just to add to the level of disgust I feel that this season is done and many on here are ready to throw in the towell for the next 2 years as well, in hopes that some young players we acquire, along with the pitching prospects we currently are excited about, will all come together to give us what we've been wanting 11 years for... a contender. I'm not interested in that path. There has to be a middle option where next year can be competitive (playing meaningful games in September) without mortgaging the future.

[Dr. FLK]

I think your assessment is a little off. Boston has the second most productive offense when measured by runs scored. Their pitching is 6th in AL. They are a playoff contending team on a pace for 94 wins.

All I said was that given the current offense and possible things that could happen on the pitching staff I am not ready to trade away a bunch of players at the deadline for less the a Bedard like deal.

Actually what I said was:

1. Add a #2 starter.

2. Weiters will be a regular in the lineup and add to the offense.

3. Ray will be in the back end of the pen.

4. Johnson moved to the rotation.

It bears watching and in my judgement I can wait for the off season for moves to be made.

Question for the stat guys: How many additional wins can we expect from replacing Ramon with Wieters if the rest of the team remains the same?

I have to say, I don't understand why people want JJ in the rotation. He was less than impressive in the minors as a starter. And, his numbers this year don't get me excited about him as a starter. He's had much success in the pen, no doubt. But, his K-rate and K:BB ratio as pretty terrible. I'd leave him in the role that he's in and hope he can somehow continue being successful with those type of peripherals.

Honestly, is there any player on this team who is even remotely worth a "Bedard like deal"? If that's what it would take for you to make a deal, I would say there is a 0% chance of a deal being made. We just don't have any more talent like him available.

But, who knows, maybe we won't make any deals...and they'll decide to give us a fancy "4th Place in the AL East" consolation pennant for trying super hard.

[Dr. FLK]

I think I agree with you, posting the gving up on 2008 was just to add to the level of disgust I feel that this season is done and many on here are ready to throw in the towell for the next 2 years as well, in hopes that some young players we acquire, along with the pitching prospects we currently are excited about, will all come together to give us what we've been wanting 11 years for... a contender. I'm not interested in that path. There has to be a middle option where next year can be competitive (playing meaningful games in September) without mortgaging the future.

I don't think this season is done at all. The "purpose" of this season wasn't the playoffs. The goal was to develop young talent and add more young talent. So far, we've been developing young talent. Guys like Wieters, Arrieta, Bergeson, Tillman have looked tremendous (I'm sure I butchered some spelling in there). Adam Jones has made great strides this season; he is a much better ML player than he was in April. We added some nice talent in the draft (assuming we can sign Matusz).

This team has a direction now. We have guys progressing through the minors. But, we need to add more pieces so that - when those guys are ready for the big leagues - there are other pieces to form a complete team. But, as long as we remember what the real goal was for this season, I think we can still enjoy the remainder of it. 2008 is not a lose cause...even if we unload a few vets at the deadline.

[nadecir]

Really excellent thread!!

The Red Sox are probably the best example of why I can't get excited about wildcard's scenario... a rotation of Guthrie, ??, JJ, D-Cab, Olson/Burres.

Red Sox rotation: Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Colon/Buckholz/Masterson.

And I will take the Rays' Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Jackson/Sonnanstine as just as good, or even better than the Red Sox rotation. The Orioles are likely to have the worst rotation in the AL East for the next few years to come.

[Frobby]

I think your assessment is a little off. Boston has the second most productive offense when measured by runs scored. Their pitching is 6th in AL. They are a playoff contending team on a pace for 94 wins.

All I said was that given the current offense and possible things that could happen on the pitching staff I am not ready to trade away a bunch of players at the deadline for less the a Bedard like deal.

Actually what I said was:

1. Add a #2 starter.

2. Weiters will be a regular in the lineup and add to the offense.

3. Ray will be in the back end of the pen.

4. Johnson moved to the rotation.

It bears watching and in my judgement I can wait for the off season for moves to be made.

I'm really happy with how our offense has done the last 2 months, but frankly they are overperforming. In any event, there's a big difference between being 2nd in hitting and 6th in pitching, and being 6th in hitting and 13th in pitching. One no. 2 starter is not going to vault us into one of the 4 best pitching teams in the league, which is roughly what we'd need.

[wildcard]

How did you weigh in on the Bedard & Tejada deals on the first few days after they were made?

I understand not wanting to trade guys until after the season. As long as the return is the same or better, I agree that there's no urgency. However, it's still possible that a player like Sherrill might have more value now than he would have after the season. IMO, Payton will net us nothing after the season. If we can get a Constanzo or Moore type prospect for him, I'd jump on it.

I can guarantee you we will get nothing of Payton after the season because he is a free agent.

If Sherrill brings back several quality players on the order of a Bedard trade, I think MacPhail has to make the deal. But the rumor mill seems to think the offers are much less, so I am in no hurry to trade him.

I thought that the Tejada deal was a fair deal for both sides. I did think it was time to trade Miggy. I thought Miggy would be good for Houston. He is not doing quite as well as I thought he would inspite of making the All-Star team. Scott and Sarfate are doing about what I thought but Patton and Albers injuries are causing the O's to get less from them then I thought.

I didn't like trading the O's #1 starter. I thought that Bedard would produce more the first four years of the trade then the O's had a chance to do better after that. That was based on Tillman's development.

Bedard injuries have been disappointing this year. Jones has done about what I thought he would. Sherrill is far exceeding my expectations and that of many other people including MacPhail according to what he has said. Tillman is about a year ahead of where I thought he would be.

[Dr. FLK]

I don't want to move JJ to the rotation either, but I don't really like your peripheral argument. He isn't doing this stuff with smoke and mirrors. The ball has rarely been hit hard off JJ this year.

I realize that some of us here REALLY love K/BB, K/9, and BB/9, but I don't think these stats are the be all/end all some of us would like them to be because the "desired" numbers can't be uniformly applied across all pitchers.

Some food for thought on peripherals.

Jim Palmer - 3948 IP, 2212 K, 1311 BB; 5.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.7 K/BB

Mike Flanagan - 2270 IP, 1491 K, 890 BB; 5.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.7 K/BB

Jim Johnson 2008 - 55 IP, 29 K, 22 BB; 4.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.3 K/BB

I'd like JJ's BB rate to go down a bit, but I don't think JJ's results are nearly unsustainable just because these three ratios don't measure up to some set of utopian values.

Utopian values? Yeah, that's what I'm looking for. I think the most important stat you put up there is the IP: 55. Johnson wasn't exactly lights out in the minors as a starter. And, now because of 55 innings of success with uninspiring peripherals, some people want him in the rotation. Well, I don't. I see your point with the above mentioned guys, but I'd guess that - more often than not - guys who walk as many as the strikeout don't have a ton of success. I understand that there are exceptions to the rule. If Jim Johnson becomes the next Jim Palmer, I'll be a touch surprised.

[Dr. FLK]

Making predictions like we're likely to have the worst rotation in the AL for the next several years is kind of silly IMO. We've got a cornucopia of highly rated pitching on the doorstep (< 2 years out). They could all fail and we could continue to struggle, but I'd hardly call it reasonable to predict that we'll roll snake eyes 8-10 consecutive times. It wouldn't shock me if Olson or Penn or Liz or some combination of them are all being discussed as "solid" starters by this time next year. I'm not counting on it, but it also isn't hard to imagine. Young pitchers typically struggle initially and then the light comes on for some of them. See Fausto Carmona last year for an example. That's just the way it is. Let's all maintain some patience please.

I think this is an important thing to keep in mind. The guys we have up here (except Guts) don't seem like much for now. But, look at we have in Bowie. Then, add in Arrieta and Matusz. We have pitching coming up the pipeline. That's why I think that any trade needs to add players that are darn near ready for ML playing time. When these pitchers are ready to shine in the big leagues, I want a solid foundation around them. And, we also need to continue adding organizational depth so that we have an all around solid team with contingency plans. I don't want to go trading away what we have now for a bunch of rookie ball guys.