Eye On The Prize - Blow It Up

[Dr. FLK]

I'm not sure why you just argued with me that we shouldn't put him in the rotation. I AGREE WITH YOU. I'm just saying that, while your post clearly made it sound you thought JJ's success in the pen had an expiration date on it because of his peripherals, I wouldn't be so sure of that. I'm saying have a little more faith that he can actually be a solution in the pen DESPITE those peripherals.

I was arguing with the sentiment that K:BB isn't an important stat. If that wasn't the point you were making, then I apologize. If he keeps walking so many guys, I'd be surprised if he can keep having success in the pen. But, I'll have faith...just for you.

[LookinUp]

You think trading your best pitcher, a former MVP, and attempting to trade Roberts all spring is not an extreme 'blowing-it-up', philosophy?

That is just a laughable premise…

I don't want to get in between you and Shack, but I think you're very wrong with this statement. Trading your best pitcher (who was a clubhouse cancer and indicated he wouldn't resign) and your former MVP SS (who was implicated in the Mitchell report, was a clubhouse cancer and generally didn't want to be here) was what had to be done. It wasn't anywhere near a blow-up scenario. AM simply showed that he wasn't fooling himself into thinking he could take these guys to FA and still re-sign them (a la BJ Ryan).

Indeed, almost trading Roberts, indicated that this was not a blow it up scenario. AM turned down a pretty substantial package because it didn't have a GREAT return. If he was in blow it up mode, he'd have accepted the package of Gallagher, Veal, Cedeno and the other pitcher who's name escapes me. Almost everyone at the time said they'd have accepted it.

[nadecir]

Making predictions like we're likely to have the worst rotation in the AL for the next several years is kind of silly IMO. We've got a cornucopia of highly rated pitching on the doorstep (< 2 years out).

I don't agree that our highly rated guys are that close. Do you really think over the next two years that our rotation is going to better than the Red Sox, Rays, Jays, and even the Yankees? They've got a lot more quality depth in their rotation than the Orioles do, and with the exception of David Price and Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox, Rays, and Jays' young guys are proven at the major league level. I will give you that the Yankees rotation may regress a bit if Mussina and Pettite are gone, or decline in performance. But the Chien-Ming Wang, and Joba Chamberlain and a quality free agent pickup the Yankees will be pretty good. I think the possibility is low that the Orioles rotation will go from one of the worst to one of the best in just a couple of years.

[RShack]

I know a lot of people argue with you about this topic and I am curious to know where you think the talent is going to come from if they don't make anymore trades. You think trading two of B-rob, Sherrill, Scott, and Huff is extreme? I'm sure you have espoused this, but I don't know what your theory is. Free agency and the draft?

If the goal is to make the O's into a franchise that's good all the time, then the absolute key is to grow your own players, which means 2 things: signing the right kids and having a good player-development organization that teaches them to do the right thing in a consistent way throughout the MiL's. I believe that the signing kids part is now pretty good. The player-development part is what I'm not so sure about. The pipeline looks OK-enough about P's but not about all the other kinds of players.

Compared to that, trades and FA's are secondary. They're both basically the same thing: ways to fill in for what you don't have, the only difference is what you're paying for them with. AM traded guys to jump-start the process of fixing things because, when he got here, he found out the cupboard was bare. So, he made a bet that trades would speed things up a bit. So far, so good, but doing what he did could just as easily make things worse, it just depends on how the trades work out. Compared to last year, right now things are different for AM in 2 ways: (1) He doesn't have the same kind of trade chips he did last year, and (2) He's about 30% nearer to his target time-window than he was last year. Because of these differences, I expect him to shift from trades to FA's as the main way he tries to make the team good before the MiL system can produce like he wants it to.

What some folks completely ignore is that making progress includes having the right expectations and attitudes. This is baseball, not robot-ball, and attitude and outlook matters. This is where DT's contribution is huge. It's also where the blow-it-up folks have a huge blind spot. What they appear to want is to trade anybody who's 30 for "prospects", despite the fact that most of these guys are very unlikely to bring back anybody who will be a difference maker. They seem to be perfectly happy to teach the good young guys we have now that busting their ass and never giving up just doesn't matter.

To be a decent competitor by 2010 means you have to be better this year than last year, and you need to be better next year than this year. That's not what the blow-it-up folks are trying to do. They want to take action based on a simplistic 1-dimensional philosophy, and the net effect would be to teach the young guys on the roster that being a Baltimore Oriole sucks. IMO, this is crazy. What is needed IMO is that the guys this year can end the season with something to show for it. They need to look forward to next year thinking "We made important progress this year, and we can be even better next year." The blow-it-up folks apparently think that doesn't matter. They somehow think that these guys are gonna study MiL lists of "prospects" and base their outlook on that. IMO, that's just loony tunes. Players don't sit around looking up MiL OPS on their computer screens. They're out there playing hard and trying hard everyday. They need to see that doing that makes a difference, and that their efforts are actually making things better. How the blow-it-folks think that's not important is beyond me. I want Nick *wanting* to be a Baltimore Oriole, not counting down the time until he can leave. I have no idea whether Nick will sign an extension before next year, but here's what I do know: If you want to guarantee he won't, then you should hope the blow-it-up folks get their way, and AM trades all the 30-year-old's for "prospects" most of whom will never matter.

[wildcard]

I think he knows that. He meant that he is unlikely to be a Type B free agent.

As one of the guys who argued with you about the Bedard trade until I finally threw up my hands and walked away, I'd say you're soft pedaling your position fairly extravagantly. You might want to go back and look at that debate again.

I am not soft pedaling anything. I expected Bedard to do better then he is. I still expect Bedard to put up #1 type numbers for the next three years. I am not running away from that.

I never said Jones would not be good. I just thought a #1 pitcher is worth alot more than a CF. Sherrill, I thought was a LOOGY that was being pushed to be a closer. I didn't think his chances of succeeding in that role would be good. I thought he would end up to be a LOOGY. He has far exceed that, which I stated.

I frankly stated that Tillman might be a #1 but I thought it would take him 5 years to get to where Bedard already was. That was 3 years in the minors and 2 years in the majors. He may only take two years in the minors so he is a year ahead of what I thought. That is what I said.

I had little expectation of Mickolio. I still don't. I said Butler was so far away it was hard to project him. That is still true.

I don't need to soft pedal. I have been open with the fact the Sherrill doing so well and Bedard's injuries have moved the deal in favor of the O's. But I truely don't think many people thought Sherrill would do as well as he has at closer. I am very happy that he has and enjoy watching him.

[RShack]

That is just a laughable premise… you sat on these boards for months last year ridiculing SG and others for stating the obvious need for change….

This is 100% BS. I've thought change has been needed since before SG had a computer.

The fact that the kind of change I want to see is not some simplistic fantasy formula about trading everybody who's 30 for "prospects" doesn't mean I don't want change. It means I want the O's to do the things that successful franchises actually do, not the things that message-board pretend-GM's want them to do. Face it, SG is a trade-a-holic. Trades are the main thing he cares about. That's always been the case, even before he was known as SG.

[RShack]

Hey! I don't agree with a lot of SG's ideas but I wouldn't call them simplistic. In fact, he actually puts some details together.

It's the philosophy and approach that's simplistic.

I agree he comes up lots of trade scenarios that are very detailed. Often, they are completely unrealistic. When they are close to reality, IMO he sometimes wants to "sell low", such as what he wanted to do about Bedard and the M's.

Look, I think it's a fine thing that people like to dream up trades. Nothing wrong with that.

But the blow-it-up idea about trading all the guys who are 30 is IMO complete fantasy and is unrealistic.

No way is AM gonna do that, I'm not worried about that in the least.

[mweb]

We do all realize that just over one season ago the Rays rotation was a laughingstock, right? Kazmir was young, inconsistent, and couldn't go deep in games. Shields was performing OK, but giving up a ton of homers. Jackson was getting crushed to the point that he was on his way out of the rotation. Sonnanstine was also getting crushed.

I don't think everyone realizes how quickly things change. Bedard went from a guy that people were opening complaining about as much or more than Cabrera to Cy Young on this board in a matter of months. JJ went from an afterthought to a shut down 8th inning guy. Loewen went from the #1 starter of the future in some people's eyes to a hitter.

Making predictions like we're likely to have the worst rotation in the AL for the next several years is kind of silly IMO. We've got a cornucopia of highly rated pitching on the doorstep (< 2 years out). They could all fail and we could continue to struggle, but I'd hardly call it reasonable to predict that we'll roll snake eyes 8-10 consecutive times. It wouldn't shock me if Olson or Penn or Liz or some combination of them are all being discussed as "solid" starters by this time next year. I'm not counting on it, but it also isn't hard to imagine. Young pitchers typically struggle initially and then the light comes on for some of them. See Fausto Carmona last year for an example. That's just the way it is. Let's all maintain some patience please.

I think you're underrating the 2007 versions of Kazmir and Shields. Kazmir pitched just as deep into games last year as he is this year, Shields was better than ok. One of the biggest reasons for the Rays pitching improvement is their defense.

Yes, I agree pitching can change quickly when there's a lot of young talented pitching, so that has to be considered. I also wouldn't count out productivity from Liz/Olson/Penn for the next year or two, or our minor leaguers that should be up in the next couple years.

[mweb]

Hey! I don't agree with a lot of SG's ideas but I wouldn't call them simplistic. In fact, he actually puts some details together. Seems to me that you consider your ideas well thought out, but your idea (correct me if I'm wrong) is to get a great FO, a great scouting department, and a great minor league instructional team, and let them do their job. Although that's a great plan, it's so vague that I'd call that more simplistic than anything SG has come up with. In fact, your plan is so simple, that it's impossible to disagree with. I mean you just state the obvious.

Pretty much.

[mweb]

This is 100% BS. I've thought change has been needed since before SG had a computer.

The fact that the kind of change I want to see is not some simplistic fantasy formula about trading everyone who's 30 for "prospects" doesn't mean I don't want change. It means I want the O's to do the things that successful franchises actually do, not the things that message-board pretend-GM's want them to do. Face it, SG is a trade-a-holic. Trades are the main thing he cares about. That's always been the case, even before he was known as SG.

Most 30 somethings, not all. Once again, that is the opinion of most of the people you are talking about. It's really amazing that you continue to lie about what people want.

[RShack]

I mean you just state the obvious.

Oh, I completely agree it's obvious.

Which is why I'm amazed that the blow-it-up idea still gets any traction around here.

I could kinda understand it when the FO appeared clueless, just out of people being frustrated and mad.

But now that we have both a GM and a Mgr who each seem to have a clue, I would think the blow-it-up stuff would receive a well-deserved burial. But, evidently not...

[mweb]

Oh, I completely agree it's obvious.

Which is why I'm amazed that the blow-it-up idea still gets any traction around here.

I could kinda understand it when the FO appeared clueless, just out of people being frustrated and mad.

But now that we have both a GM and a Mgr who each seem to have a clue, I would think the blow-it-up stuff would receive a well-deserved burial. But, evidently not...

What is obvious has nothing to do with whether or not the blow it up plan should happen. Having a great FO, a great scouting department, and a great minor league instructional team is great, as would putting more money into the draft and international players. No one is arguing against that, and you can obviously have that along with trading vets for more young talent. Having a good FO/scouting department is obviously helpful when doing that, because it leads to better trades.

[Roll Tide]

I agree that we should care more about long term goals. I think that means you try to deal the guys who wont be in their prime 4 years from now. I imagine that every one other than Markakis, Jones, & Guthrie should stay. Mora, Payton, Huff, Sherrill, Scott , & Roberts should go in the right moves.

The bad thing is Sherrill & Huff's value may never be higher. Roberts IMO has plenty of good years left. But will he be tailing off 5 years down the road?

[TonySoprano]

But, who knows, maybe we won't make any deals...and they'll decide to give us a fancy "4th Place in the AL East" consolation pennant for trying super hard.

That would make for the 10th such pennant in the last 11 years.

[Fairfax Bird]

While being way too lazy to read this entire post, after watching today's horrific performances, I concur, blow this darn thing up.