Where do you draw "the line" for trading away performers

[wildbillhiccup]

42 minutes ago, oriole said:

I’d trade anyone if someone is offering a solid return. Prospect for prospect trades seem fairly rare so I’m not worried too much about that hypothetical. But Mancini falls in the definite trade bait category for me. I just don’t expect anyone to offer a whole lot even if he is hitting well. Right handed bat only players are not particularly hard to come by. 

As does Givens. Moving them both before seasons end, if they can get a solid return should be no-brainer moves. Same with Villar if he can rebuild his value. Bundy and Cobb should be made available too if people ask. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

27 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Givens have the most potential value, but all would have to perform comparable to their best seasons to bring back anything worthwhile. 

Villar ranks next on potential value because he could be a boost to many teams looking for disruptive speed, but he'll need to put up numbers near his 2016 season to get that value. 

The challenge with the question of trading players from this roster is there is very little with value. Could Mike Wright turn into a lights out power arm in the bullpen that someone will give something for? Maybe? Could Richard Bleier get it together and become a valuable LOOGY worth a mid-level prospect to a contender? Maybe? 

Evaluating what any player could bring back in return requires us to consider their best-case scenario 2019 performance because nobody has their current value brings back much more than a bag of balls (or maybe some controversial international signing slot money). 

To clarify, the intended purpose of this exercise is to gauge where people see the tipping point between "this guy will be on the next Orioles winning team" and "this guy should be dealt in service of the overall org talent level."

For example, if DL Hall comes up and is electric from his first pitch and looks like an ace by the end of 2020, he may very well bring back a huge haul.  With that said, I would assume most would consider him a building block at that point rather than trade bait.

[interloper]

 

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll flip Mancini in a heartbeat, he's 27, by the time the O's could be in contention he'll be on the wrong side of both the age and cost matrix.

Moving him also frees up a spot for Mountcastle.  He can DH while Davis is at first base.

This is a tougher one than it seems. He's literally the only somewhat reliable hitter anchoring your lineup, he's endeared himself to the clubhouse, and he buys in fully. These are all kind intangible/seemingly meaningless things in a rebuild season, but I'm not sure they are as meaningless as they seem, even to Elias. I'm not saying he's a guy you want to extend or anything like that, but I think he makes it through the season without being traded.

I also hope that Davis and Trumbo are released this year, and that provides plenty of room for Mountcastle. 

My final thought is that I think this team could get good very quickly, and maybe Mancini is around for that in the next year or two. 

All that said, you take a look at your offers and if someone desperately needs a young, power-hitting DH/1B/COF then you pull the trigger by all means.

[HowAboutThat]

I wonder if Elias is approaching teams about trading for those guys. I don’t know who usually makes the first call, but so far, both Rule 5 guys, both catchers, and Smith have been productive players, and Elias had to work out a deal with Philly to get Jackson. To this point, there’s not a Jason Garcia or Michael Almanzar in the whole bunch.

That means Elias( and Sig) has a really good idea of what he wants and what players have those qualities, so one would think he’s aware of hidden gems in other locations.

[Roll Tide]

I didn’t really read the opening thread but I really like Villar and think the Orioles should extend him 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I didn’t really read the opening thread but I really like Villar and think the Orioles should extend him 

I am not in favor of extending middle infielders past the age of 30.

[Santandah]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am not in favor of extending middle infielders past the age of 30.

he's 27 (soon 28). so even a 5 year extension only takes him to 32/33. And he's not going to get mega money. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Santandah said:

he's 27 (soon 28). so even a 5 year extension only takes him to 32/33. And he's not going to get mega money. 

He's 28 in baseball years and the O's have no reason to offer him more than a two year extension( if that).

[Santandah]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's 28 in baseball years and the O's have no reason to offer him more than a two year extension( if that).

You mean, aside from being a solid, affordable player who could help stabilize a growing team and then be a trade asset when someone better than him comes through the pipeline. Because right now, no one is pushing him out of the infield -- either on the current team or in the minors. Once that player emerges, then fine, trade him. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Santandah said:

You mean, aside from being a solid, affordable player who could help stabilize a growing team and then be a trade asset when someone better than him comes through the pipeline. Because right now, no one is pushing him out of the infield -- either on the current team or in the minors. Once that player emerges, then fine, trade him. 

Why should they offer him more than two years?

What market forces are at play?

You don't think two years gets it done?

You are worried they miss out when he enters the free agent market going into his age 31 season?

You don't give a guy five years instead of two if you don't have to.  Just like you don't give Trumbo three years if you can get him for two.

Go ahead and toss some team options on the end of a two year deal if you want to, but guaranteeing five is insane.

[Santandah]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should they offer him more than two years?

What market forces are at play?

You don't think two years gets it done?

You are worried they miss out when he enters the free agent market going into his age 31 season?

You don't give a guy five years instead of two if you don't have to.  Just like you don't give Trumbo three years if you can get him for two.

Go ahead and toss some team options on the end of a two year deal if you want to, but guaranteeing five is insane.

Contracts are signed by two or more parties.

[interloper]

Villar is an interesting one simply because there is nobody - I mean literally nobody - in our minor leagues who is an impact MI. 

[mdbdotcom]

I'd draw the line if the returning player isn't younger and a real prospect. There are no sacred cows on this team. Anyone can be replaced. Anyone making real money now can be replaced quickly.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Villar is an interesting one simply because there is nobody - I mean literally nobody - in our minor leagues who is an impact MI. 

And in two years it's likely that Villar won't be, either, if he is that now.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Villar is an interesting one simply because there is nobody - I mean literally nobody - in our minor leagues who is an impact MI. 

I think Hall has a chance to be.  Carmona maybe?

How far away they are is the main reason I'd entertain even two years for Villar.