Where do you draw "the line" for trading away performers

[Aglets]

Interesting enough, Mancini was one player explicitly named by Mike Elias last November as part of our 'future core' when he wrote that letter to the fans.

That may tell us something about his intentions...........or it may just be complete crap.   He also listed Bundy, Givens, and Mullins on that list so I'm starting to think it might have just been him saying stuff.

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2018/11/26/reading-lines-mike-elias-message-fans/

[Jagwar]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll flip Mancini in a heartbeat, he's 27, by the time the O's could be in contention he'll be on the wrong side of both the age and cost matrix.

Moving him also frees up a spot for Mountcastle.  He can DH while Davis is at first base.

I agree with everything you wrote in the first sentence. But the second sentence made me pause. Mountcastle is a solid prospect, but he still hasn't proved yet that he can hit ML pitching, and he still doesn't have a position. And I'm skeptical that Davis would factor into the decision. Wouldn't freeing up a spot for Mountcastle depend on a choice between trading Mancini or releasing Davis?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I agree with everything you wrote in the first sentence. But the second sentence made me pause. Mountcastle is a solid prospect, but he still hasn't proved yet that he can hit ML pitching, and he still doesn't have a position. And I'm skeptical that Davis would factor into the decision. Wouldn't freeing up a spot for Mountcastle depend on a choice between trading Mancini or releasing Davis?

The Davis part was gallows humor.

[Babypowder]

16 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

How much value does a player like Mancini really have though?

Seems like right handed power hitters who can only play 1B adequately or DH are dime a dozen

Not much, IMO. He's a bad defender in the outfield, so much so that his ceiling even in a good year with the bat is limited to average. He's not a great defender or bat at first either, limiting his ceiling there as well. I've said this many times, but Trey Mancini is prime Mark Trumbo. The playstyle is obviously different, but the total package has the same value and limitations.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

No where do I suggest that we need to trade either player for scraps. More so the opposite. If the market is not there, don’t force it.  That’s how you end up with a Gausman like return.  I think maybe you are responding to the wrong person. 

There should be no rush to get rid of either player,  but both players will likely be in their 30’s and need to be resigned for the next winning Oriole team so they cannot be looked at as long term pieces. 

You said   “Mancini would have to REALLY be hitting, like an .850 + OPS to drum up some real trade value. “

I’m not sure that his OPS needs to be .850. But it would be nice!

 

[sportsfan8703]

Trea Turner is out with a fractured index finger. Lindor is missing time due to injury as well. Wonder what the Nats and Indians would offer up for Villar?

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Trea Turner is out with a fractured index finger. Lindor is missing time due to injury as well. Wonder what the Nats and Indians would offer up for Villar?

Indians have Wu Chang if Lindor is out long term. Nats have Carter Keiboom. So it'll be a wait and see on that, but I could see us dealing Villar to DC if Dozier stinks. 

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You said   “Mancini would have to REALLY be hitting, like an .850 + OPS to drum up some real trade value. “

I’m not sure that his OPS needs to be .850. But it would be nice!

 

A 1B/DH type with an .800ish OPS doesn't have a whole lot of trade value unfortunately.  Those types tend to grow on trees.

He has more value to us in the short term than a couple C prospects would likely give us.  So I'm not really an advocate of trading him.  

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Indians have Wu Chang if Lindor is out long term. Nats have Carter Keiboom. So it'll be a wait and see on that, but I could see us dealing Villar to DC if Dozier stinks. 

Both teams are trying to win their division. Kieboom has never played above A ball. Doubt they even consider calling him up. 

Talk about a momentum crusher though. Orioles trade Villar for two top 15 organizational prospects of the Nats. 

[MDtransplant757]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Both teams are trying to win their division. Kieboom has never played above A ball. Doubt they even consider calling him up. 

Talk about a momentum crusher though. Orioles trade Villar for two top 15 organizational prospects of the Nats. 

Kieboom will be in AAA this year and the organization hasn't been afraid to challenge him as he's developed. It's a real possibility that the Nats could call him up if Trey Tuner is still out versus spending resources to acquire outside help. The thing with the Nats' system is that it's really top heavy no matter where you go. After Will Crowe, it's a ton of lotto tickets. Think guys like Encarnacion in our system level of lotto tickets. Their 7th best prospect is out with Tommy John at 18. So we'd be getting "top prospects" In concept, but in reality we'd be getting lotto tickets with high upside. 

Same thing with the Indians to an extent. Outside of Sam Hentegs, we'd be getting either guys in rookie ball or in A ball. There's upside, yes. But they're very young and very raw and do you think the Indians would go for it in a hypothetical trade for Villar? 

 

It'll be interesting to see where everyone is at come July 31st, and Villar is a great asset. But do you go for upside in top heavy systems or do you go for more projectable "blue chip" guys in said top heavy guys

[sportsfan8703]

Well we won’t have to worry about this for a long time. Castro and Bleier have 10+ ERAs. Trumbo is out for a long time. Cobb is out. Cashner has been meh. 

Sell off 2.0 is looking like Givens and Villar at best. Maybe Rickard.