Attendance 2019

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Nats’ drop is a bit surprising, considering they’re in the playoffs. This will be their lowest attendance since 2011.    One thing this proves: at this point, the O’s aren’t losing fans because they’re defecting to the Nats.    That shook out a long time ago.

So reading comments from Nationals fans it seems to be 

* Metro closes earlier on Sunday through Thursday.

* Parking lot near stadium that was cheaper went from $20 to $40

* Last year the Nationals had all-star game. People got season tickets for that.

* Poor treatment from club for Partial Season ticket holders during off-season. 

 

[atomic]

They also mention not having Yankees and Red Sox on the schedule and not having Bryce Harper, and tickets bought by businesses to give to clients no longer tax deductible. 

[atomic]

42 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that's quite a stretch.  There is not a lot of overlap in the Venn diagram of soccer and baseball fans.  It's me, maybe you, and like 10 other people. In any case, how many times has United and the Nats had a game at the same time?  Never?

Also, United's attendance is up 4-5k a game from the RFK days.  Every single one of them would have to be disaffected Nats fans for that to be the impact.

2nd caveat: there's not a fixed number of fans.  I'm guessing DC United, Nats and Orioles attendance numbers are largely independent of one another.

You are probably right.  Most Soccer fans I know, think baseball is boring.   And most baseball fans don't even bother to discuss Soccer.  But also there are people who could name the entire Roster of Manchester City, Barcellona,  or  Paris St Germain but couldn't name a player other than Wayne Rooney on DC United.  I had a bunch of co-workers who went to Russia for the World Cup who don't go to DC Untied games.  Maybe if MLS actually had star players in their primes there would be more overlap.

I think one of the things we have over Nationals Park. Is ease of getting to the stadium.  And there are ton of things to do around Camden Yards.  And public transportation.  Even though Light Rail is crowded after the game it is nothing like the fiasco that the DC Metro is after National's games. 

[Frobby]

 

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I parked at a metro lot once and took the Subway down there.  Never again.  Been to plenty of Capitals games but that is an easier drive as you are against traffic going down.  More places to eat and drink around the Arena. Tons of places to park. 

There is a lot more to do in the Navy Yard area than there used to be a couple of years ago.    That area is booming and lots of younger people are living there.    Still, there are not nearly as many restaurants and bars within 1-2 blocks of Nats Park as there are at Capital One Arena.

[Redskins Rick]

3 hours ago, weams said:

And it should be. They got the good end of the market. And the money and players to be competitive. 

Horse Hockey.

Granted they have spent a ton of money, but what has that got for them?

Actually, in 2016, the Orioles out spent them 150M to 139M, and in 207, they both ramped it up, 175m to 182m

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Nats’ drop is a bit surprising, considering they’re in the playoffs. This will be their lowest attendance since 2011.    One thing this proves: at this point, the O’s aren’t losing fans because they’re defecting to the Nats.    That shook out a long time ago.

Which backs up the theory that MLB is in trouble, most MLB are seeing this downward trend at the turnstiles.

[hoosiers]

4 hours ago, weams said:

And it should be. They got the good end of the market. And the money and players to be competitive. 

You realize the recent adverse MASN rulings indicate that the MASN was not only shorting the Nats, but also the Orioles by tens of millions of dollars.  That was $ going straight into the pockets of MASN owners which is basically the same makeup as Os owners.  

We've had discussions that Os owners were making profits between $50M and $75M around 2012-2014 between the Os and MASN.  

The Nats received the higher end of the DC/Balt market, but MASN owners were guaranteed in the neighborhood of $200M when the deal was originally signed.  You can look at all that $ and wonder about the ownership decisions to avoid spending internationally, to avoid investing in an analytics department, to avoid investing in modern baseball technologies. and much more.  Issues surrounding the Orioles various problems over the past 10 years including our current state of (lack of) competitiveness have very little to do with the Nats.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

For several decades, increasing rates of participation in youth soccer across most of the country did not translate into a major boost in interest in men’s or women’s professional soccer in the U.S. (other than U.S. World Cup matches). 

That has changed in recent years, though many of the adults I know who are soccer fans focus their interest on European leagues, especially the English Premier League. I don’t know the reasons for the recent and ongoing uptick, but I would guess these are among them: (1) the fact that the early generation of youth soccer players from the 1980s and 90s has reached prime ticket-buying age, and they can enjoy and appreciate soccer on their own or with their soccer-playing kids, (2) more aggressive and promotion by MLS, including a policy of rapid expansion that appears designed to find cities where soccer will catch on, including  smaller markets without MLB franchises, and (3) the decline of participation in youth football and baseball in many parts of the country. 

While growing, the attendance numbers for professional soccer in the U.S. remain modest. I think the MSL faces a major hurdle in many Americans’ spectators demand to watch athletic competition that is, or they can be convinced is, world-class. I don’t know whether the MSL can get there. A constructive first step would be to raise the level of play and player compensation to the point where the best American players, whom fans will know from following the national teams, will choose to make their careers in the U.S.

While I’m on my soapbox, I’ll throw in my own recommendation that would, I think, enhance U.S. fan interest. Like many Americans, my introduction to world/class soccer started with I started with the 1966 World Cup and continued with the launch of the NASL in the late 60s. One important way in which the game has changed is that, like athletes in other sports, goalies are now much bigger, faster, and more athletic/acrobatic than they were a generation or two ago. As a result, many well-aimed shots at the top or sides of the goal mouth, which decades ago would have resulted in goals, are now saved, some of them routinely. If I were running the MSL, I would consider sponsoring some experimental exhibition games, played with an enlarged goal areas. 

 

TV.  That's the big change.  25-30 years ago you basically couldn't watch most European soccer in the US without going to a bar with a specialized satellite link.  10-15 years ago you could watch a handful of English or German or maybe Italian games mostly on obscure tiers of pay-extra cable packages.  Today I can watch essentially every Tottenham Hotspur league match and Champions League match, some of them even on NBC broadcast networks.  I can certainly stream more English soccer matches (at least legally) than I can Orioles games.  Plus my kids don't really watch full games of any sport, but they'll watch soccer highlights all the time on YouTube.

Today if you live in Maryland it's about as easy to be a fan of Wolverhampton Wanderers as it is of the Detroit Red Wings or the Kansas City Royals.  I have more access to information and highlights and merchandise of 3rd division German football than I did about Everton in 1995.

MLS just needs time.  It's been around 25 years, but half the teams are expansion teams in the last 10 years or so.  Much of what is thought of as an intense fanbase is actually just the fact that your grandpa rooted for the same team.  People will say MLS can't really gain a foothold because Americans won't root for anything but the highest level leagues.  That's just not true.  College football may be more popular than the NFL. In many circles college basketball is definitely more popular than the NBA.  Right now most MLS teams have core supporters groups that are as die-hard as any fan group of any football or hockey or baseball team.  With time those will just grow.  What soccer really has going for it is demographics.  The fanbase is younger than the other sports, and it's much more representative of the parts of the population that are growing.  The Nats would kill for an equivalent of the Screaming Eagles or La Barra Brava or El Norte.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There is a lot more to do in the Navy Yard area than there used to be a couple of years ago.    That area is booming and lots of younger people are living there.    Still, there are not nearly as many restaurants and bars within 1-2 blocks of Nats Park as there are at Capital One Arena.

There are tremendous restaurants in that area.  Blue Jacket, the Korean taco place, there's a great Chinese place, like five minutes from 8th street and lots of good stuff there.  And I've only been there a handful of times, I'm sure I don't know the half of it.

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Horse Hockey.

Granted they have spent a ton of money, but what has that got for them?

Actually, in 2016, the Orioles out spent them 150M to 139M, and in 207, they both ramped it up, 175m to 182m

Which backs up the theory that MLB is in trouble, most MLB are seeing this downward trend at the turnstiles.

According to Forbes the Nats had $336M in revenues in 2018, compared to $250M for the Orioles.

MLB may be in trouble, maybe not.  Attendance has been declining for a decade, but revenues are still at or near historic highs.  We'll see if changes to media models and contracts eventually reflect a smaller fanbase with smaller revenues.  I think conventional wisdom is attendance is a good proxy for size of fanbase, but in the era of constant connectivity and 65" TVs that may no longer be as true as it used to be.

[Redskins Rick]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

According to Forbes the Nats had $336M in revenues in 2018, compared to $250M for the Orioles.

MLB may be in trouble, maybe not.  Attendance has been declining for a decade, but revenues are still at or near historic highs.  We'll see if changes to media models and contracts eventually reflect a smaller fanbase with smaller revenues.  I think conventional wisdom is attendance is a good proxy for size of fanbase, but in the era of constant connectivity and 65" TVs that may no longer be as true as it used to be.

MLB is in trouble, and yet, its not going to die out this decade.

CABLE TV money is keeping it in the Black for profit margin.

Will that continue to be the case, down the road? Maybe.

Clearly there is an live attendance issue at hand. 

 

[atomic]

48 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

According to Forbes the Nats had $336M in revenues in 2018, compared to $250M for the Orioles.

MLB may be in trouble, maybe not.  Attendance has been declining for a decade, but revenues are still at or near historic highs.  We'll see if changes to media models and contracts eventually reflect a smaller fanbase with smaller revenues.  I think conventional wisdom is attendance is a good proxy for size of fanbase, but in the era of constant connectivity and 65" TVs that may no longer be as true as it used to be.

Wait until MLB teams all ask communities to build them new smaller stadiums.  I think that is the path they want to go down.  Go for affluent fans and charge them more money for tickets and have full stadiums.   If you have a stadium of 25k seats and you can charge $100 per ticket on average  you will make a lot more money and it will make tickets scarcer.   

 

 

[atomic]

I think another thing they could do is shorten the season.  Cut out Monday and Thursday games and play 5 games a week.  Shorten the regular season and have 16 teams in the playoffs.    7 game playoffs for all rounds.  I think 120 game season would be enough  You could eliminate a 5th starter and the quality of the pitchers would improve. 

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, atomic said:

Wait until MLB teams all ask communities to build them new smaller stadiums.  I think that is the path they want to go down.  Go for affluent fans and charge them more money for tickets and have full stadiums.   If you have a stadium of 25k seats and you can charge $100 per ticket on average  you will make a lot more money and it will make tickets scarcer.   

I think they know they have to balance building connections to the fanbase with revenues.  I'm not even sure the math works out if you don't consider the impacts of pricing most your fans out of ever going to a game.  If most teams charged $100 a ticket (which is at least double and maybe close to triple the current average) you'll see large attendance declines.  Possibly, probably, more than enough to offset the higher revenues per fan, with huge impacts downstream. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think they know they have to balance building connections to the fanbase with revenues.  I'm not even sure the math works out if you don't consider the impacts of pricing most your fans out of ever going to a game.  If most teams charged $100 a ticket (which is at least double and maybe close to triple the current average) you'll see large attendance declines.  Possibly, probably, more than enough to offset the higher revenues per fan, with huge impacts downstream. 

Look at the premium seating at Yankee Stadium behind home plate. Whenever I see it, it's mostly empty. Football pricing is never going to work in baseball when there 10X the number of home games.  

[atomic]

18 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Look at the premium seating at Yankee Stadium behind home plate. Whenever I see it, it's mostly empty. Football pricing is never going to work in baseball when there 10X the number of home games.  

The Capitals charge that and they averaged more fans per game than the Orioles this year. They only play 41 home games but I think that is a good scenario where lower capacity works.  The Capitals seem to be in the middle of the range of NHL tickets.