The One-Run Game Thread-2019

[ShaneDawg85]

Figured we've got a 2019 thread for most everything else, time for another to track a stat we've become quite accustomed to over the last 7 years, the one-run game.  Last night was the Orioles sixth game with a one run difference, and they're 4-2 with the end of April in sight.  Their only two losses so far were both in the Twins series.  Last year, the Orioles the Orioles had forty-one games end with a run difference, and they were 12-29.  Coincidentally through this point last season the Orioles had the same number of games end in a one run difference, but were 2-4.  

[Frobby]

Interesting to see how we got there.

April 1: O’s led the Jays 6-0 in the middle of the 7th but coughed up 5 runs over the last 3 innings, including 2 in the 9th.  Bleier stranded a runner on 3B to preserve the win.    

April 2: O’s led 2-0 entering the 9th.   Castro allowed a one-out solo HR but closed out the 2-1 win without further incident.   

April 18: O’s led 5-2 heading to the bottom of the 8th, but allowed 2 in the 8th and one in the 9th, before scoring in the 11th to lead 6-5.   John Means allowed a one-out walk but preserved the win.  

April 20: O’s trailed 6-3 but scored solo runs in the 6th and 8th to make it close.    

April 21: O’s trailed 3-0 and 4-2, scored a run in the bottom of the 9th but left the bases loaded after the umpire blew a ball four call on a 3-0 count to Severino and then he flew out.   

April 24: O’s led 3-0 and then 4-1, but allowed single runs in the 6th and 9th to narrow the gap to 4-3.   Givens escaped a jam of his own making with a runner on 3B and one out by getting a strikeout on a slider that was about a foot off the plate, and then inducing a grounder that Martin slid to corral and then fired to first to nip the runner just in time to preserve the win.  

Note that our relievers allowed 9th inning runs in each of our four one-run wins; those games didn’t need to be so close!    I have a feeling we’ll see a lot more games where we get late inning heartburn, and won’t always come away with the win.  

[LA2]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Interesting to see how we got there.

April 1: O’s led the Jays 6-0 in the middle of the 7th but coughed up 5 runs over the last 3 innings, including 2 in the 9th.  Bleier stranded a runner on 3B to preserve the win.    

April 2: O’s led 2-0 entering the 9th.   Castro allowed a one-out solo HR but closed out the 2-1 win without further incident.   

April 18: O’s led 5-2 heading to the bottom of the 8th, but allowed 2 in the 8th and one in the 9th, before scoring in the 11th to lead 6-5.   John Means allowed a one-out walk but preserved the win.  

April 20: O’s trailed 6-3 but scored solo runs in the 6th and 8th to make it close.    

April 21: O’s trailed 3-0 and 4-2, scored a run in the bottom of the 9th but left the bases loaded after the umpire blew a ball four call on a 3-0 count to Severino and then he flew out.   

April 24: O’s led 3-0 and then 4-1, but allowed single runs in the 6th and 9th to narrow the gap to 4-3.   Givens escaped a jam of his own making with a runner on 3B and one out by getting a strikeout on a slider that was about a foot off the plate, and then inducing a grounder that Martin slid to corral and then fired to first to nip the runner just in time to preserve the win.  

Note that our relievers allowed 9th inning runs in each of our four one-run wins; those games didn’t need to be so close!    I have a feeling we’ll see a lot more games where we get late inning heartburn, and won’t always come away with the win.  

Thank you for the detailed report! But it also shows how unreliable the stat is, especially when we don't have a shut-down back end of the bullpen and any threats in the bottom 44% of the lineup (unless Hanser really does prove to be the Answer, Severino continues to hit bombs, and Chris is Crush again--all, of course, highly unlikely). More appropriate stats would be along the lines of a "bend but not break" relief measure and "nice try but not quite enough" late-inning scoring stat. But then what would it matter?