Will the 20's be Roaring for the Orioles?

[Darkhawk]

I've been thinking about the Orioles past decade which started and ended with some atrocious play on the field but had a successful and fun run sandwiched into between those rotten bookends. In total we won 755 games and lost 865 for a combined .466 winning percentage. 

That record was better than the previous decade with 698-920/.431 marks. Other than those two decades every other FULL ten-year period has seen the Orioles win more than they lost (the 70's teams were most successful going 944-656/.590).

We have little clue as to the complete roster of the 2020 team (other than bad) and even less so when predicting the 2029 team (please God be good) but I am curious if the board is optimistic that we will win more than the 755 victories of the aughts  or if a prolonged rebuild will make the 20's record even worse. 

Thought this might be a fun little poll, and would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe we could even look back on it ten years from now, with a WS banner or two. 

Note: We are talking regular season games, could see scenarios where we win less than 755 but championships make the decade seem more successful. 

[Philip]

 This franchise has spent the last many years like an old car being driven with the parking brake on. Mike has showed up and released the parking brake. However, a lot of damage has resulted  and it’s going to take a year or two to repair all of it. When it is all repaired, he will then polish and wax and hit the strip. It’s a good car, and when he’s finished he will drive it to its maximum capability and I expect he will have a lot more than 755 scores in the next decade.

[Frobby]

I think they will win more.    We certainly won’t get off to a roaring start in 2020, but I’m not expecting anything worse than 2018, and hopefully a little better.    Then 2021 I expect to be significantly better than 2018 or 2019.    After that, in 2022 I think we’ll beat 2010 (66 wins), and in 2023 we’ll beat 2011 (69 wins).    So overall I think our bad years this decade will be significantly better than the bad years from the last one.    Whether our good years will beat 2012-16 is unclear, but I think we’ll have enough of a pad for this to be a better decade overall.

I wonder how many teams won fewer than 755 games last decade?    I’m sure a few did, but probably not many.   

[osfan83]

I suspect the '20's will be similar to the teens. A few tough years, hopefully a few playoff run years, and then another tear down and rebuild. 

[Philip]

It’s too early for speculation on victories, but as the worst we have to put on the field improves, we will get more victories. Villar was frustrating, Mancini/Smith/Stewart drove me bonkers, the catching is madness. The catching won’t get any better but I expect great strides(no pun intended) in the outfield, and improved defense( not necessarily offense) in the infield.

And this is our new floor. Not guessing about how many more wins we get, but if natural progression is allowed, “more” will be accurate.

 

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I suspect the '20's will be similar to the teens. A few tough years, hopefully a few playoff run years, and then another tear down and rebuild. 

I think that’s incorrect. Once the system is up and running, there won’t be any need for anymore tear downs. The Cardinals are ALWAYS good. Now that the Astros have their own system going they will always be good. No reason to think the Os will be any different.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder how many teams won fewer than 755 games last decade?    I’m sure a few did, but probably not many.   

Eyeballing the list, I believe only three teams won fewer games than the Orioles in the 2010’s:

Marlins 707

Padres 739

White Sox 743

Orioles 755

Royals 758

Mariners 758

Rockies 762

Twins 763

Reds 775

So yeah, I think we can do better in the 2020’s.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think that’s incorrect. Once the system is up and running, there won’t be any need for anymore tear downs. The Cardinals are ALWAYS good. Now that the Astros have their own system going they will always be good. No reason to think the Os will be any different.

It’s a zero sum game, and we have less financial resources than the average team.    Therefore, I do not expect to always be good.   Hopefully, we can avoid falling as far as we fell, and not have to spend half a decade digging out of a hole.     But there will be other dry periods.    

[Tx Oriole]

36 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think that’s incorrect. Once the system is up and running, there won’t be any need for anymore tear downs. The Cardinals are ALWAYS good. Now that the Astros have their own system going they will always be good. No reason to think the Os will be any different.

I don’t think so. But we can hope. 

[hoosiers]

We should be the 755.  I am going to say we will have 7 years of being competitive to the point of a .500 year (567 wins) or better (40 more wins), and three mediocre years coming up where we will total 50, 60 and 70 wins.  Ballpark, that puts me around 787 - so I will predict 790.

[wildbillhiccup]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a zero sum game, and we have less financial resources than the average team.    Therefore, I do not expect to always be good.   Hopefully, we can avoid falling as far as we fell, and not have to spend half a decade digging out of a hole.     But there will be other dry periods.    

Isn't that the whole point of this strategy? To tear it down, start fresh, and create a pipeline of talent so that we can have sustained success? Isn't the idea for this to be our lowest point in a long long time? Or am I missing something?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Isn't that the whole point of this strategy? To tear it down, start fresh, and create a pipeline of talent so that we can have sustained success? Isn't the idea for this to be our lowest point in a long long time? Or am I missing something?

No, you’re not missing anything, but there’s a large gap between winning 47 and 54 games and occasionally not being a contender.     Look at Tampa.    They won 90+ games six times this decade, and were under .500 the other four.   But the four losing seasons were 80, 80, 77 and 68.    That’s a very far cry from the abyss we are in now.    

Let’s get real.     We are in an extremely good division and it’s not very likely that we’ll never be under .500 again once we get over that hump.    More realistically, we can hope for a longer run of winning records than last time and that when that ends we won’t have to endure what we’re enduring now while the team regroups.    
 

[Philip]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Isn't that the whole point of this strategy? To tear it down, start fresh, and create a pipeline of talent so that we can have sustained success? Isn't the idea for this to be our lowest point in a long long time? Or am I missing something?

Yes, that’s my point, we have fewer resources, but so what? The purpose of lots of money is to Afford expensive guys. Paying large amounts of money for expensive guys generally is wasted money.

We’re setting up a procedure that allows us to never need to spend lots of money. First we are creating an extremely deep farm system with multiple quality prospects in each position. Secondly We have excellent quality scouting and training personnel, to ensure that we acquire guys who will produce, and finally, we have a trading philosophy that will ensure players are treated at peak value for a return that re-stocks the pipeline.

That’s three categories, at least, and if we falter periodically in any one of those three, the other two can take up the slack. There is no need for us to ever falter in the sense of winning fewer than 70 games or so. Example I’d like to give is the Cardinals. At the other side, the Padres are always doing the wrong thing. The Yankees are different because they can just spend money on whatever they want and their mistakes don’t matter. Enough money covers up all the flaws you want.

The whole point of this unhappy time Is that once it is over with,  We will never have to return to it.

[Philip]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, you’re not missing anything, but there’s a large gap between winning 47 and 54 games and occasionally not being a contender.     Look at Tampa.    They won 90+ games six times this decade, and were under .500 the other four.   But the four losing seasons were 80, 80, 77 and 68.    That’s a very far cry from the abyss we are in now.    

Let’s get real.     We are in an extremely good division and it’s not very likely that we’ll never be under .500 again once we get over that hump.    More realistically, we can hope for a longer run of winning records than last time and that when that ends we won’t have to endure what we’re enduring now while the team regroups.    
 

That’s entirely logical, but that’s very different from “tear down and rebuild” I just posted that I don’t think such a drastic move will ever be necessary again. I think the Yankees are the only team in baseball that has gone 40 years without a losing record,   I’m pretty sure they have the most consecutive winning seasons, but that’s because they have lots of money and if you’re rich you don’t need to be smart. 

I think we are going to be fine in perpetuity as long as we keep to the system. The biggest problem isn’t going to be whether our plan succeeds, it will be what happens when the other teams adopt the same plan

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

That’s entirely logical, but that’s very different from “tear down and rebuild” I just posted that I don’t think such a drastic move will ever be necessary again. I think the Yankees are the only team in baseball that has gone 40 years without a losing record,   I’m pretty sure they have the most consecutive winning seasons, but that’s because they have lots of money and if you’re rich you don’t need to be smart. 

I think we are going to be fine in perpetuity as long as we keep to the system. The biggest problem isn’t going to be whether our plan succeeds, it will be what happens when the other teams adopt the same plan

If it is then I think it's safe to say that Elias has failed and probably should be fired. I can live with a few .500 / slightly sub .500 seasons sprinkled in, but I never want to be this bad again. Ever.