2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[waroriole]

Just now, interloper said:

Honestly, he reminds me a little of Richie Martin. 

I mean that’s lunacy. 
 

Without one elite skill, it’s not hard to see why three teams passed. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s have very sophisticated techniques for teasing out which statistics from this year’s small sample size can be relied upon, and which can’t.    I do think they were willing to put more credence in some players’ stats from this year than some other teams were.   We will see if they were right.

When they legitimately start producing difference makers ...I’d agree. That has happened yet. FWIW.....How would folks feel if Elias had passed on AR last year and drafted the 10th ranked player? I don’t think this is much different. They passed on a 70 hit tool guy holding the second pick.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, PHRESH said:

Lunacy seems a bit strong. I respect your opinion though. 

In my opinion, there's no Adley Rutschman-level talent this year. Martin certainly doesn't get my juices flowing. He could be a decent enough player, but doesn't strike me as a can't miss or impact guy. 

I preferred Lacy at 2. But I'm content with improving the 4th and 5th round selections by taking Kjerstad. 

He’s a 70 hit tool guy .... the Orioles haven’t had that guy in forever.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

At least three teams didn’t have him as BPA. I wonder if Miami and KC qualify as lunatics. 

Miami blundered like we did ....they are notoriously cheap. 
 

and 

KC went with pitching and got the top pitcher in the draft. I’d feel considerably different if they had drafted Lacy over Martin.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Honestly, he reminds me a little of Richie Martin. 

Can you provide anything to solidify your insight? Was Richie freaking Martin ever rated at or near the top of his draft class? Did any venue ever grade his hit tool at 70? Was Martin even drafted in the 1st round? No ....He was drafted in the 38th round .NO!!!!!!!...there is simply no comparison Sir!
 

On Martin

Quote

PL Contributor: Kyler

Possibly the best overall player in the draft, Martin put himself on the map as a consensus top of the first round pick after leading Vandy to a National Championship in 2019. As a sophomore, he led the SEC with a .392 AVG while posting a 1.090 OPS. Martin is the whole package. He is arguably the best pure hitter in the draft with many figure the hit tool to be at least plus. Although not being super physical, he should be capable of hitting 20-25 home runs. This season Martin has been playing centerfield, showing an above-average arm and speed. He played 3B prior to this season, where he is a strong defender. Many believe he is more than able to play short.

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

[Roll Tide]

Quote

The best pure hitter in the 2020 Draft, Martin has tremendous feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact with a short, quick right-handed stroke. He's not overly physical and may not have more than average raw power, but his hitting ability allows him to tap into every bit of it. He controls the strike zone extremely well and uses the entire field, exhibiting no weaknesses at the plate.

The Richie Martin comp is just comical @interloper

Richie Martin will never have 20-25 home run power

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

[makoman]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

When they legitimately start producing difference makers ...I’d agree. That has happened yet. FWIW.....How would folks feel if Elias had passed on AR last year and drafted the 10th ranked player? I don’t think this is much different. They passed on a 70 hit tool guy holding the second pick.

What if they took CJ Abrams and saved over $3M, getting basically another mid 1st round pick? A lot of people think Abrams is great, he's around a top 25 prospect...That would have been interesting. Maybe they get Jack Leiter for that, I don't know what he wanted or who else might have been available. But again, would have been interesting...

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Baxter explained what impressed him the most about Martin this year; why he thinks Martin is a great fit for this era of baseball; and more. Before we get to the Q&A, here's what we wrote about Martin when we ranked him as the best prospect in the draft:

Martin, a top-of-the-order hitter and versatile defender, might be the most intriguing player in the class. He has an impressive feel for contact and for the strike zone, finishing his Commodores career with a .368 batting average and more walks than strikeouts. (He was the toughest batter to strike out in the power conferences.) Though he homered just 14 times, his exit velocities suggest there's plus power potential under the surface, something he could achieve thanks to his offensive aptitude and a swing that already features loft. In short, Martin fits the profile of others who have added power to their games in recent years. He's also a skilled baserunner with good speed and smarts. Generally, having an undefined position is a negative. In Martin's case, it could turn out to be a positive. He was primarily a third baseman before this season, when he slid to center field to better leverage his wheels. A creative team could maximize his value by having him split time between the infield and the outfield, a la Whit Merrifield and Scott Kingery, among others.

“Best Prospect in the draft” 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-austin-martin-is-2020s-top-prospect-his-vanderbilt-coach-explains-how-he-could-become-a-star/

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, makoman said:

What if they took CJ Abrams and saved over $3M, getting basically another mid 1st round pick? A lot of people think Abrams is great, he's around a top 25 prospect...That would have been interesting. Maybe they get Jack Leiter for that, I don't know what he wanted or who else might have been available. But again, would have been interesting...

Yes ...it’s possible....just statistically unlikely based on past history on players success rate in each round that goes down. 

[atomic]

If all these guys were first round talent why weren't they drafted in the first round?  The last pick in the first round was #29 and the Dodgers had a $2.4 million slot.  Do you think any of the the 4th and 5th round picks of the Orioles are going to get more money than that?

It would be very hard as our 5th round pick would be a slot value of $422,300 So we would need to pay him over $2 million over slot over what he could have gotten in the first round.I highly doubt that will happen. 

 

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, makoman said:

Because the negative voices are based on the information we have being right, but the information we have has larger error bars than normal. The basis for most people hating this draft is "we had the chance to take a premium talent and settled for a guy out of the top 10." That is unquestionably true if you look at draft profiles from January. 

This list for example from December 2018 has JJ Bleday as the 26th prospect, Lodolo 27th, Manoa 28th. That's three top 11 picks six months later, including #4. Things can change a lot in a season, and we kind of missed out on a lot of that.

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2018/12/12/2019-mlb-draft-top-50-player-rankings-version-1

Elias surely had any number of underslot options if that's what he wanted. I suspect he had reason to believe that Hjerstad was one of those guys who would be rising this year, whether he believed in the new K rate or saw something else, and was able to get a guy that was still underrated by the industry. Maybe not Martin level, but maybe not all that far. But I acknowledge I'm talking out of my butt a little, things could have moved the other way too. Martin could have solidified as a clear cut #1 pick, and Hjerstad could have played himself out of the first round or down into the 20s. 

 

I know, the negative voices are based on limited information that we have, and the fact that our draft did not take one of the top players according to that limited and possibly out of date information.

So what are positive voices basing their good grades on?   Just the fact that "Elias knows what he is doing"?    OK, I guess we could have had a poll the day BEFORE the draft and asked how we did, and those people would give a good grade not knowing who we had picked.   Because whatever we did, they were going to vote on that basis.

All I know is we were in the rare instance of having a top 2 pick in the draft, something that has only happened 3 times in 56 years of the MLB draft.   With a pick that high, I would like to think we could either get a potential ace starter, a potentially great multi-tool player, based on the scouting reports.   And I just don't feel we did that here.   We got a guy who already can't play a premium up the middle defensive position, knowing that as players develop they typically move down the defensive spectrum or at best stay the same, they rarely move up.   We got a guy who has some questions about his swing, has OK but not great speed.   And that's a disappointment to me.  

[waroriole]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Miami blundered like we did ....they are notoriously cheap. 
 

and 

KC went with pitching and got the top pitcher in the draft. I’d feel considerably different if they had drafted Lacy over Martin.

I guess my main question for you is why the overly strong conviction on this? Is it just because people you’ve read had Martin as the #2 guy? To me Martin is a good prospect. He doesn’t do anything well enough to make me say he’s consensus BPA at #2. There’s certainly room for differing opinions, and if our GM and former scout takes him, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. 
 

The cynic in me says it’s the entitlement that comes from being a Bammer.

[ArtVanDelay]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Can you provide anything to solidify your insight? Was Richie freaking Martin ever rated at or near the top of his draft class? Did any venue ever grade his hit tool at 70? Was Martin even drafted in the 1st round? No ....He was drafted in the 38th round .NO!!!!!!!...there is simply no comparison Sir!
 

On Martin

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

Richie Martin was a 1st round draft pick. 

[Big Mac]

27 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s a 70 hit tool guy .... the Orioles haven’t had that guy in forever.

 

No he isn't. 

[Big Mac]

20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Can you provide anything to solidify your insight? Was Richie freaking Martin ever rated at or near the top of his draft class? Did any venue ever grade his hit tool at 70? Was Martin even drafted in the 1st round? No ....He was drafted in the 38th round .NO!!!!!!!...there is simply no comparison Sir!
 

On Martin

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

Richie Martin was drafted in the 1st round.  He was drafted in the 38th out of high school.