Grade the Draft

[survivedc]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t really disagree with most of what you said, I think our emphasis is different.

AR Going to be an outstanding catcher, yes, but None of the guys you mentioned as close to the majors, And none of the guys we currently have can be considered even an average defender with the possible exception of Hayes and Santandar.

 My main point is that if you have to trade to fill a need, it is less expensive to trade for a bat then it is to trade for pitching. 

And I’m not complaining about Mike’s strategy, I’ve said many times that I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, even if his moves appear a bit curious.

I think Diaz and Mountcastle would both profile as avg defensively (COF & 1B respectively).

[hoosiers]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t really disagree with most of what you said, I think our emphasis is different.

AR Going to be an outstanding catcher, yes, but None of the guys you mentioned as close to the majors, And none of the guys we currently have can be considered even an average defender with the possible exception of Hayes and Santandar.

 My main point is that if you have to trade to fill a need, it is less expensive to trade for a bat then it is to trade for pitching. 

And I’m not complaining about Mike’s strategy, I’ve said many times that I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, even if his moves appear a bit curious.

I think there are better defenders in the system than you would think.

I understand about none of the guys being that close to the majors, but better to accumulate talent first IMO.

Hitting is much cheaper to acquire than pitching IMO, but the burn-out rate on pitchers is extremely high.  I suspect there is ample evidence from the Astros days of our FO to justify the approach of our front office on drafting hitters - though I will say that our guys were at St. Louis before that and it seems that organization has a never-ending supply of high quality arms.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I wonder if now might be just the right moment to float Elias a "what did you think of the Miller-Rodriguez" trade in a chat.  He was somewhat in the know when it happened, and its still perhaps a couple few years before his Orioles earn that position.

It’s useless to say so right now, but I wouldn’t have made the Miller trade.

however, that just illustrates my point. We paid 6 excellent years for 20 good innings. The Bedard Trade too. Neither of those really applies to this regime, but good pitching being exorbitantly expensive is reinforced by your examples.

Meanwhile, think of the discussions we had about the possible return for Mancini, a slow and mediocre defender who hits well and is still cheap.

Guys like him, despite the virtues, are Relatively common and relatively inexpensive.

[Philip]

5 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm not sure about this.  Top of your head - who did the Astros give up for Verlander, Cole and Greinke?

I would have to look that up, but they are probably top level prospects who aren’t quite ready for the big yet. Perhaps one or more of them might’ve debuted this season, but that’s not the point.

The return for all of those guys was extreme. Even Greinke Was expensive, because Houston was willing to take on his massive contract, which again reinforces the idea that excellent pitching is very expensive. Baltimore could never have traded for Greinke Because of that contract. But think about the return Kansas City got when they traded him when he didn’t have that contract. A lot. 

[Philip]

3 hours ago, survivedc said:

I think Diaz and Mountcastle would both profile as avg defensively (COF & 1B respectively).

Diaz may be average, And average is a step up on this team, but of course it remains to be seen. I’ve never heard Mountcastle’s Defense referred to as average, Except in prayers that are requesting it. He might be an average first baseman, but again that remains to be seen. But that doesn’t really change my point.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I think there are better defenders in the system than you would think.

I understand about none of the guys being that close to the majors, but better to accumulate talent first IMO.

Hitting is much cheaper to acquire than pitching IMO, but the burn-out rate on pitchers is extremely high.  I suspect there is ample evidence from the Astros days of our FO to justify the approach of our front office on drafting hitters - though I will say that our guys were at St. Louis before that and it seems that organization has a never-ending supply of high quality arms.

I think St. Louis may be the best run organization in the entire major leagues, even better than New York, which has a never ending supply of money. One thing I’ve noticed about St. Louis is that they never ever have a single digit draft pick and yet they always have a good farm system and they always have good players. I don’t know whether pitching or hitting dominate their choices, But they certainly seem to choose wisely.

[WI O’s Fan]

The draft strategy was akin to a nfl team.    The team trades down and collects more picks in the lower rounds.   Kjerstad was the 8th overall talent so Elias swap the #2 pick Martin for #8 Kjerstad + Mayo 1.75 mil pick roughly #42 value according to the slot money + Baumler 1.5 mil pick roughly #49 value.  In essence,   He traded back from 2 to 8 and got two extra #2 picks.  I am not a fan a this because of the talent of Martin.    This reminds  me of the 1992 and 2009 drafts.    O’s chose Hammonds over Jeter (bad choice) and Hobgood over Wheeler (undershot for two overs lots  Ohlman and Coffey). 

[FlipTheBird]

6 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm not sure about this.  Top of your head - who did the Astros give up for Verlander, Cole and Greinke?

We got a Bedard mint back in the day, and paid rather handsomely for Miller at a deadline - maybe those are both seller's wins, but the Astros regime has a few buyer's wins under its belt.  The Astros deep systems helped them close those deals, but they also avoided the risk of their blue-chip draft pick just falling to the attrition gods or Bundy'ing.

I wonder if now might be just the right moment to float Elias a "what did you think of the Miller-Rodriguez" trade in a chat.  He was somewhat in the know when it happened, and its still perhaps a couple few years before his Orioles earn that position.

I do recall several of the key names the Astros traded for those three arms... and it’s a valid point. At least 1-2 guys from the Greinke trade will have to develop into damn fine players, otherwise it’ll have been three consecutive cases of highway robbery. Though admittedly Houston acquired Verlander when he was 34 and appeared to be losing a step. His renaissance since then has been nothing short of phenomenonal.