Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

[murph]

Personal note, I do wish people would not take disagreements personally or even just with irritation.  This thread turned into a fantastic read and discussion, I've enjoyed reading the discussion on both sides of the table.  One thing I did not take not of with this Yaz discussion (and maybe I missed it, it was a lot to read) is that the Giants were desperate for outfield help at the time.   Even more than our awful rebuilding team, right?   And that also allowed for an extended look for Yaz?  Maybe the light doesn't come on if he doesn't get this opportunity (which, right or wrong, it didn't look like he was going to get with the O's).  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If that's the case, that they were really only here a few weeks, I agree that it's not worth fretting too much over. Tony's other points about finding our own Yaz are good ones I think, but my concern was over losing an impact guy in the first place without knowing it. If that's on Duq, fine. I thought Elias was here longer.

So Elias was hired in late November.  He obviously had to spend a lot of time implementing a lot of things before he even got to ST.  Yaz was traded in late March.  He essentially had about a month with him and let’s face it, Yaz wasn’t exactly high on his priority list.

I think that’s all people are saying.

I agree with the larger point about not being able to find diamonds in the rough although I think they have gotten a lot out of Alberto.  I also like Armstrong.  Still, a large majority of these players are always going to fail because, well they aren’t good.  They are placeholders.  I’m not worried about judging Elias on these types of players.  Where I think he has failed is just flat out not acquiring better talent.  

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Clearly I am failing to get my point across. I'm tired. Have any opinion you want.

At the end of the day, you have an opinion, I have facts. My facts state that Elias has dumped one player that became an impact player and he has not acquired any. Does that mean he will never acquire any? No. 

Does it mean he missed something of that the technology may not always have the answers, incomplete. I like a lot of what Elias has done in changing things within the organization, but so far his talent evaluations of players he's brought in have not been very good. Grant it, these guys are waiver claims and few of them will turn into anything, but so far he's found middle/long relievers and utility guys or sub par guys they've run out as starters the last two years.

I expect things to improve, but what we don't know yet is whether he will be given a budget to help improve the team in the future. Afterall, if they are really making coaching moves based on salary (I still don't believe this) then you can throw away any chances of the team being competitive soon so he will need to build completely from within.

My hope was that Elias had the technological and scouting eye to find unearthed talent in other organizations. Instead, he failed to pick up Yaz's potential and the guys he has selected have not shown they are part of a winning future.  Sure, maybe we can give him a pass on Yaz, but he also hired the coaches yet the SF coaches in less then a few weeks found a way to make Yaz an impact player.

The man at the top gets credit when things go well, but also must take the blame when they don't.

 

No, I get it. I respectfully disagree that there is a problem here. Every other team missed on him. Every organization has these kinds of things happen. Now and then, an outlier comes along. There are things that happen in the development of players that you cannot quantify or expect based on three weeks of data.
 

One of the things that has not been mentioned much is how he has come to take care of his body. Earlier in his minor league career, he did not do as well conditioning his body. He has come to understand the conditioning that it takes to stay healthy. I think that physical training, along with whatever adjustments in approach and swing, has made a difference. 
 

You have hindsight facts, it’s a great benefit to have. I, and others, am pointing out the factors of the decision at that time. I agree they should analyze this and learn what they can, but to dwell on this as a failure, nah. I’m just happy for Yaz. He was not going to get playing time in AAA with the Orioles in 2019. 
 

And I think this will happen more now that there is a focus on scouting and player development. We just will not have room for all of them. The rise of the farm system under Elias has been well documented. To point out the misses is only part of the story. Is the development of the players he kept more important in the long term than a 28 year old who was, in fact, mediocre at AAA for several years? We’ll know that answer in a few years. 

I agree with you on most things, and I do hold him accountable. Some of his trade acquisitions look a bit sketchy so far, agreed. But to judge him on one outlier that got sent out, and several guys off waiver claims, nah, that’s not me. Way too early to be throwing bricks at Elias for player acquisition for me. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

No, I get it. I respectfully disagree that there is a problem here. Every other team missed on him. Every organization has these kinds of things happen. Now and then, an outlier comes along. There are things that happen in the development of players that you cannot quantify or expect based on three weeks of data.
 

One of the things that has not been mentioned much is how he has come to take care of his body. Earlier in his minor league career, he did not do as well conditioning his body. He has come to understand the conditioning that it takes to stay healthy. I think that physical training, along with whatever adjustments in approach and swing, has made a difference. 
 

You have hindsight facts, it’s a great benefit to have. I, and others, am pointing out the factors of the decision at that time. I agree they should analyze this and learn what they can, but to dwell on this as a failure, nah. I’m just happy for Yaz. He was not going to get playing time in AAA with the Orioles in 2019. 
 

And I think this will happen more now that there is a focus on scouting and player development. We just will not have room for all of them. The rise of the farm system under Elias has been well documented. To point out the misses is only part of the story. Is the development of the players he kept more important in the long term than a 28 year old who was, in fact, mediocre at AAA for several years? We’ll know that answer in a few years. 

I agree with you on most things, and I do hold him accountable. Some of his trade acquisitions look a bit sketchy so far, agreed. But to judge him on one outlier that got sent out, and several guys off waiver claims, nah, that’s not me. Way too early to be throwing bricks at Elias for player acquisition for me. 

I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

To me, Hanser Alberto was a relatively successful pickup. 3.4 rWAR in what amounts to 1.4 seasons, compared to Núñez’s 2.2 rWAR in 1.8 seasons.   Yeah Nunez has the better bat but Alberto’s overall package is better IMO since he has some defensive value.    

For that matter, Alberto’s 3.4 rWAR the last two seasons is more than Santander’s 2.9, though I’d certainly say the trend favors Santander being the better player over the next several years.    I’m looking forward to seeing if Santander can sustain the progress he’s shown the last two years.    
 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why.

In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

I don’t think the Yaz/Arrieta analogy is very apt.   Arrieta was a highly regarded 5th round pick who got a large signing bonus, was Carolina League pitcher of the year, was in the BA top 100 a couple of times and progressed reasonably quickly to the majors without a ton of MiL hiccups.   His talent was obvious for all to see, and the puzzle was why wasn’t it translating to major league success.    Yaz on the other hand was a 14th round pick senior sign who never really excelled in higher levels of the minors.    It was frustrating when Arrieta succeeded so quickly with the Cubs because it really seemed like we should have been able to unlock his talent.    Yaz’s success, on the other hand, seemed to come out of nowhere.   I found that more astounding than frustrating.   It’s a shame Elias’s staff didn’t see that in Yaz in the very short time they had to look at him, but I don’t see it as a big failure, whereas I do see our failure to unlock Arrieta’s abilities as a big failure.